Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is already taking full advantage of the fickle GOP voters that have driven the 2012 cycle — Gingrich is already up in the Florida Republican primary by nearly ten points in two snap polls conducted Sunday by InsiderAdvantage and Rasmussen, and has a five point lead in the latest Public Policy Polling (D) numbers.
After leading the state by twenty plus points following his then-win in Iowa and New Hampshire, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had a rude awakening when Gingrich bested him in two Palmetto State debates and took the South Carolina primary by twelve. Now Gingrich has rocketed the the top of the first three Florida polls based on that momentum.
But we’ve been here before. The question is, can Newt keep it going?
“At this point there is really no frontrunner,” Dr. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, told TPM. “There’s analysis that suggests Romney is more ready for the long haul. But super PACs have really changed things.”
And that’s because the root of the fight in Florida is not like the shoe leather campaigning of Iowa, New Hampshire and to a certain extent South Carolina — Florida is a big media market state. Candidates will have to either earn voters’ affections through good media coverage and developing a narrative or be able to blanket the airwaves and drive the message themselves (see Romney’s huge fundraising totals and the power of the multiple super PACs supporting his candidacy).
Which is partially why the idea of having “no frontrunner” in the state at the moment seems correct — both men have advantages on their side. Romney certainly took a hit when he lost South Carolina and the air of inevitability that was attached to his campaign. But he’s also taken Newt out before.
“The problem for Newt is that the spotlight will be back on him now, and the more intense the focus has been on him the worse he’s done,” Public Policy Pollster (D) Tom Jensen wrote in an email to TPM. Not only did the numbers PPP released on Monday night show a five point Gingrich lead, they also showed some openings for Romney. “He [Gingrich] had that first national surge when no one was paying attention to him, but as soon as the guns were turned on him he wilted.”
Jensen essentially argued that Gingrich seems like a great option — when he’s off the table. “After poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire the scrutiny decreased and once he [Gingrich] had that great debate performance on Monday night it was too late for Romney to get things turned around,” Jensen wrote. “But now it’s more clear than ever who the one and only threat to Romney’s nomination chances is, and I think there’s a pretty decent chance Newt’s going to collapse down the stretch in Florida just as he did in Iowa with that greater focus on him.”
Miringoff sees a strong Newt run, mainly because the Romney financial advantage isn’t as big as it seemed at one time. Some supporting evidence came on Monday afternoon, when it was revealed that casino mogul Sheldon Adelson will give another $5 million to the biggest super PAC supporting Gingrich, Winning Our Future. “Past days, if you got hot, you had to take some time to put some money together,” Miringoff said. “Now with a super PAC, you can put some money together really quickly.”
What the money is good for, from Newt’s perspective, is keeping him in the fight and ensuring that his negatives with Republicans stay down. What first made a Gingrich run at the top so unfathomable was the fact that he was way underwater even within his party — in the mid-summer Gingrich had hit unfavorable ratings over fifty percent in some early primary states. That’s changed dramatically as he’s surged. The aforementioned PPP numbers show him with a healthly 57 – 34 split on favorability within the party, second only to Romney’s 61 – 30.
The voting bloc that gives Gingrich his current lead in Florida is the same group that he dominated when he won South Carolina: Very conservative Republicans. Gingrich more than doubles up Romney within the group in the latest Rasmussen poll, and nearly doubles him in the PPP numbers. And that’s probably concerning for team Romney. Because while the far right has been among the most fickle voters in the Republican primary, there’s one thing they’ve been consistent about — they are not exactly enthralled with the former governor.
“The hard part for Gingrich is to get off the canvas,” said Miringoff. “The hard part for Romney is to get him down again.”