Talking Points Memo

About Those Rules

2012-02-13T13:45:13Z

So in the pretty unlikely scenario that the Republican nomination fight goes all the way to the convention, what are the rules governing what the delegates would be allowed to do? Here's our primer.

Above Water

2012-02-13T13:25:55Z

President Obama's approval rating just went back into positive territory in our TPM poll average.

Some o' That Ole Time Crazy

2012-02-12T15:18:51Z

Palin unleashes GOP Id on worshipful CPAC crowd.

Gettin' Rough

2012-02-12T15:13:27Z

Santorum tells George Stephanopoulos that Romney is getting "desperate."

AP: Whitney Houston Dead

2012-02-12T01:21:51Z

Pop star, model, and actress Whitney Houston has died at age 48, the AP reports.

Frontrunner

2012-02-12T00:27:34Z

The latest poll from PPP shows Rick Santorum opening a commanding 15 point nationwide lead over Mitt Romney.

Hostage to Winter

2012-02-11T21:08:14Z

You may remember Kris Kobach, arch-anti-immigration hawk, Kansas Secretary of State and author of Arizona's anti-immigration law. He's surprisingly close to the Romney campaign. Not only was he an advisor to Romney's campaign in 2008. Romney touted his endorsement this year and then sorta campaigned with him a few weeks later in South Carolina. For Romney, it's a classic case of drawing Kobach close enough to power him through the primaries while not getting so close that he'll totally poison relations with Hispanic voters in the Fall.

So the Romney campaign hasn't wanted to talk much about Kobach of late. But the same doesn't apply for Kobach about Romney. We caught up with him at CPAC. And Kobach told TPM he's been "much more involved" in Romney's campaign this year than he was back in 2008.

Picture of the Day

2012-02-11T19:18:28Z

Defending religious liberty at CPAC.

Playing the Odds

2012-02-10T21:59:25Z

How do bettors think Obama's doing? Check it out.

The New Age Of American Exports

2012-02-10T19:33:44Z

Who says America's influence is waning?

Deployed To Northern Virginia

2012-02-10T19:11:12Z

Sen. Dick Lugar's spokesman probably didn't offer the most helpful response to questions about his boss's legal residence.

Justice Scalia: Liberal Lion

2012-02-10T16:04:49Z

Why Antonin Scalia's judgment on ritualistic peyote use has birth control rule supporters smiling.

The Bummin' Mood at CPAC

2012-02-10T15:03:24Z

At the big annual conservative bash, base GOPers express frustration and dejection over lame primary field.

For The Onion?

2012-02-10T13:18:30Z

From my pal Nell Scovell: "Instead of Firing Up The Base, Romney Mistakenly Fires The Base."

You can actually work with it. Maybe: "After failing to fire up the base, a frustrated Romney decides to fire the base."

Mix and match. I think it's got potential.

Senator Soldier-For-Hire

2012-02-10T11:49:24Z

Who hasn't heard the one about an Oregon state Senator who runs a paramilitary training camp getting sued by his partners for allegedly funneling cash to GOP candidates.

The Rules

2012-02-10T03:24:06Z

I was talking to some reporters last night and the topic turned to the 2008 Democratic primary race and how important the actual convention and delegate rules became as the battle lasted into the summer. As we know, it never came to that. By the time the convention rolled around all the players had accepted that Barack Obama had won the nomination. But we may be getting to a similar point with the 2012 GOP race.

]]> Now, to be clear, I don't expect a brokered convention. I don't expect a late savior entry. I expect that after a very bumpy ride Mitt Romney will amass enough delegates to secure the nomination and that will be it.

But we're hearing enough (highly unrealistic) talk about late entries or brokered conventions that it's worth giving a look to just what the rules governing these quite unlikely scenarios would be.

One scenario I already know ain't going to happen: the late entrant scenario. Our team looked at the filing deadlines in all the states a few weeks ago. And upshot is that it's simply too late. In a big chunk of the states, the filing deadlines have passed. You can't get on the ballot. And in a week or so more, most of the big states will be closed. So even if Ronald Reagan rose from the dead and wanted to get in, he just couldn't get on the ballot in enough states.

So what about the brokered convention? Two key questions come to mind. And I don't know the answers to these yet, though I think we'll probably put a reporter on the question tomorrow. First, do the rules allow the convention to choose a nominee who has not run in any state contests? And how much freedom do the individual delegates have under this year's rules at the convention? Can they decide to vote for whoever they want or are they bound to vote for the candidate they were selected to represent? And do the rules change after one or more ballots?

In the real world, I think the whole scenario just wouldn't fly in this day and age. Romney, Newt and Santorum spend hundreds of millions of dollars, get tons of people to the polls and it all ends up with nominating Mitch Daniels by acclimation in Tampa? I just don't see that.

But again, curious to know just what the rules are.

Epiphany

2012-02-10T02:30:14Z

I saw the news this evening from PPP that their first night in the field with a new national poll has Rick Santorum as the new nationwide leader. So the Romney argument that Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado were just outliers or lightly-attended caucuses (plausible arguments in themselves) just won't cut it.

But of course this isn't about Rick Santorum who is clearly a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate, it's showing the depth of Romney's weakness as a candidate -- both as a candidate in this particular political moment and simply as a candidate for office in general. It even occurred to me that 'Santorum' doesn't mean all the those ucky things you see on Google. It's actually Republican for "F' it. I just don't like Mitt Romney."

I feel like Champollion deciphering hieroglyphics.

CPAC In 100 Seconds

2012-02-09T23:13:32Z

Want to catch up on today's CPAC events but fear for your sanity/ immortal soul? Have no fear, TPM's Michael Lester has boiled the day down into 100 mind-blowing seconds.

Gulf War

2012-02-09T22:34:59Z

A Mississippi lawmaker wants to rename the Gulf of Mexico. You'll never guess to what...

Ah, CPAC...

2012-02-09T22:22:10Z

A conservative pundit at CPAC fits Rachel Maddow and contraception into the most outrageous line of the day (so far).

Hot Conservative Love

2012-02-09T21:35:36Z

Top dating tips from CPAC.

Conservative Heartthrob

2012-02-09T19:51:16Z

The iconic Rick Santorum sweater vest in cardboard cutout form -- and other pics from CPAC.

Getting Meta

2012-02-09T18:13:30Z

When attack ads attack attack ads.

iFile

2012-02-09T17:16:25Z

The FBI releases the file it had on Steve Jobs.

'If You Go To Kill The King...'

2012-02-09T17:12:57Z

Why Planned Parenthood knew it had to hit back hard when Komen pulled its funding.

All The Fun Of The Fair

2012-02-09T16:02:52Z

It's the first day of CPAC and already its organizers are trying to work out how to avoid having their straw poll overrun by Ron Paul supporters. Meanwhile, you can follow TPM's live coverage of the forum via our livewire.

'Don't Do It!'

2012-02-09T00:43:14Z

Pro-choice Republicans flip out over their leadership's latest stunt.

Bubble Boy?

2012-02-08T19:58:19Z

Today Mitt Romney is arguing that there were attacks from Rick Santorum this week that he didn't get a chance to rebut -- thus in some way explaining his three defeats on Tuesday night. But I see a different pattern. It's not unusual for also-rans to opportunistically pick up a caucus here and there, even when there's a more or less anointed frontrunner. And it's true Romney didn't campaign or spend aggressively in those states. But the frontrunner, already prepping for the incumbent, shouldn't need to go full court press just to stave off resounding defeats at the hands of a palpably second or third tier opponent. It looks more like Mitt Romney -- at least in this cycle -- is a sort of electoral Bubble Boy, unable to exist in the natural political environment without a protective layer of massive SuperPAC spending.

Look at the story in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida and Tuesday's contests. Each tells the same story.

Commander-in-Geek

2012-02-08T19:39:30Z

Beware the marshmallow launcher at the White House science fair.

The Horror, The Horror

2012-02-08T18:25:11Z

Fox News guests discover a new "nightmare" for New Yorkers: overpaid hotel maids.