Kansas, anyone?
I just noticed that Kansas hasn't been polled in 16 days, and the Survey USA poll on 9/22 had McCain up by only 53-41, a loss of almost half of the 58-35 lead he'd had in the same poll back in August.
I'm not putting KS in play just yet (on the same day, Rasmussen still had McCain up 20, albeit with a smaller sample size and Rasmussen generally running slightly to the right this year), but I'd be interested in seeing the next poll from there: if it's now between +5 and + 10 for McCain, then we may have a ballgame. I only have a superficial impression of Kansas, but somehow I think that it's a state where McCain's support for the bailout would be verrry unpopular with his base. And Nancy Boyda, the Democrat who pulled the upset in KS-2 last time around, was supposed to be a major Republican target this year, but I haven't seen anything to indicate she's been in trouble yet this year.
Thoughts, Sunflower Staters? Any chance we could see Blue skies come November?
I'm not putting KS in play just yet (on the same day, Rasmussen still had McCain up 20, albeit with a smaller sample size and Rasmussen generally running slightly to the right this year), but I'd be interested in seeing the next poll from there: if it's now between +5 and + 10 for McCain, then we may have a ballgame. I only have a superficial impression of Kansas, but somehow I think that it's a state where McCain's support for the bailout would be verrry unpopular with his base. And Nancy Boyda, the Democrat who pulled the upset in KS-2 last time around, was supposed to be a major Republican target this year, but I haven't seen anything to indicate she's been in trouble yet this year.
Thoughts, Sunflower Staters? Any chance we could see Blue skies come November?
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No chance
McCain has been up in all polls listed at Pollster. Sen Roberts is ahead of his opponent, Slattery, by nearly 20 points.
There may be some hope for Wyandotte and Leavenworth Counties (east central, right next to Kansas City, MO), but, overall, I see Kansas voting for the McTantrum/Caribu Barbie ticket.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ks/
October 8, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I've seen the previous polls. (And while Roberts is probably safe, his lead shrank from 58-31 in the August SUSA poll to 55-35 in the September version, so that trends with the presidential race narrowing according to that same poll.)
My point was that there had been no polling in 16 days (the last polls were September 22nd, and Pollster shows the Rasmussen poll as being on the 18th, not the 22nd as it read on 538.com) and I had two questions that I was soliciting on-the-ground (not polling) input from Kansans for:
1) Do you think that what you have observed (talk in your area, tone of newpaper articles, presence or absence of lawn signs/bumper stickers) indicates that Obama did make progress in Kansas from mid-August to mid-September, as SurveyUSA's polling indicates? (According to their poll, McCain's advantage shrunk from +23 to +12, a loss of approximately half his lead. And they also showed Slattery knocking off 25% of Roberts's cushion, from +27 to +20.)
Or do you think the race had been static in that period around the conventions, as the competing Rasmussen poll indicated? (They had McCain's lead actually edging up, from +17 to +20.) Nate Silver is giving more weight to the SUSA polls, in part because their sample sizes are larger; do you think he's right or did the state seem solid before the first debate?
2) SINCE September 22nd, do you think there has been a significant narrowing of McCain's lead in Kansas, despite the fact that the state has not been polled? Remember, Obama has surged by more than 7 points in Gallup's national poll over this time period. A similar change in Kansas would put the state in play if the SurveyUSA margin (McCain +12) was accurate, but wouldn't affect it that much if the Rasmussen margin (McCain +20) was more correct. Is there momentum towards Obama in Kansas now, in your opinion?
And let me add one more:
3) Is there any local issue or demographic trend that might indicate a hidden strength for one of the candidates, much as the surge in African-American registration is working for Obama in North Carolina and Georgia right now?
Again, thanks for all your answers. It's great to get the local input.
By the way, is there a good Kansas-based progressive site I could be following this on? I've fallen in love with PageOneKentucky for keeping me up to date on the quest to ditch Mitch (McConnell), but so far the best I've found in Kansas are the comment pages on ljworld.com. (The Lawrence Journal-World newpaper.) Again, thanks for any feedback.
October 8, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink