Calitics is reporting that Bill Durston's internal polling has him in a dead heat with Dan Lungren.  CA-03 covers most of Sacramento County; the district has voted strongly Republican in House elections since 1998.  From the campaign's announcement:

When voters were asked who they would vote for if they were to vote today, 33% chose Lungren, 30%, chose Bill, 7% chose another candidate, and 30% were undecided. With a margin of error of 4%, the differences between Bill and Lungren were not statistically significant.

After hearing a positive profile about both Lungren and Bill, the tallies were even closer - 39% for Lungren and 38% for Bill. After hearing about some of Lungren's many shortcomings, including his Hawaii vacation paid for by special interests, his allegiance to the Bush-Cheney administration, and his fondness for taking money from Big Oil, voters chose Bill over Lungren by a margin of 43% to 34%, a difference which is highly statistically significant.

30% undecided underscores the importance of funding Durston's campaign so he can get the word out. From Calitics:

CA-03: Durston Says He's Tied

CA-03 is the seat with the smallest registration gap between the parties that's currently held by a Republican [...]  CA-03 is one of those under-the-radar seats nationwide that is very, very winnable, and a late push could easily put Durston over the top.