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Obama Gains in Daily Tracking Polls
Obama's expanded his lead in Gallup Daily Tracking poll 50%-44%, matching his previous high of 50% reached after the democratic convention. Obama's lead 49%-42% post convention lead was obliterated 4 days after Palin and McCain's convention speeches after which McCain took the a lead of 49%-44%. McCain began to lose his lead as news of McCain & Palin's exaggerations and lying began to spread. The lead reverted to Obama a day after AIG, Lehman's Brothers and Merrill Lynch's financial problems were reported.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with 48% of the vote and John McCain with 47%. It is the first time he has lead the poll in a week-and-a-half.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with 48% of the vote and John McCain with 47%. It is the first time he has lead the poll in a week-and-a-half.
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Fivethirtyeight.com is currently giving Obama a 74% chance of winning this election, even breaking 300 in the electoral college. Personally, I think their model may be a little volatile as this is a huge swing from a couple days ago, but that may also be the nature of having this may swing states running so close to even that they can flip on a dime. Still, I'd like to dream!
September 20, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has to do with momentum. The last week has consistently shown Obama will an upward swing so 538 accomodates for tht in it's state polling. Pretty ingenious actually.
September 21, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough, as I don't have a lot of experience with statistical methods. I'll take your word that you understand how this stuff works better than I do!
September 21, 2008 3:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would also add that Obama looks like he has a good chance of keeping up his momentum a we head into the first debate. The Sunday talks shows seem to be wholly dedicated to the Wall Street crisis and the government's bailout plan. Obama is leading in economic policy, while McCain is still saddled with a couple of serious gaffes, not to mention a few declared policy positions about health care and social security for which he now has to answer. Even on foreign policy, now the subject of the first debate, McCain has had some stumbles now that he's made us enemies with Spain and his VP has all but declared war on Russia. There is little chance of him seizing back the narrative between now and Friday, especially since neither candidate will even be on the campaign trail for a good part of next week.
September 20, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink