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Politico thinks McCain is going to win
A story on Politico highlights a Zogby/Reuters tracking poll that shows McCain ahead of Obama by about 3 points outside of the MoE among "likely voters." (<a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12656.html">link</a>)
It then goes on to explain that we are witnessing a Republican "resurgence ... at the doorstep of the Democratic Convention."
Now, I think it is probably true that the polls have tightened a bit. Still I'm not (yet) worried about Obama losing, because:
1. "likely voter" is an unreliable metric, particularly in an election year where we can expect to see a lot of "unlikely voters" (minorities and young people) actually coming out to vote.
2. Zogby is an unreliable pollster.
3. Polls taken before the conventions, and before the debates, are simply meaningless.
Still, there does seem to be enough evidence from aggregate polling to suggest a tightening of the race.
I'm not ready to believe much that Politico says, these days. But this is for certain: Obama and the Democrats need to make sure the convention goes off without a hitch. I do hope that Clinton's role in the whole thing will end up being positive, and not a PUMA-esque floor fight.
It then goes on to explain that we are witnessing a Republican "resurgence ... at the doorstep of the Democratic Convention."
Now, I think it is probably true that the polls have tightened a bit. Still I'm not (yet) worried about Obama losing, because:
1. "likely voter" is an unreliable metric, particularly in an election year where we can expect to see a lot of "unlikely voters" (minorities and young people) actually coming out to vote.
2. Zogby is an unreliable pollster.
3. Polls taken before the conventions, and before the debates, are simply meaningless.
Still, there does seem to be enough evidence from aggregate polling to suggest a tightening of the race.
I'm not ready to believe much that Politico says, these days. But this is for certain: Obama and the Democrats need to make sure the convention goes off without a hitch. I do hope that Clinton's role in the whole thing will end up being positive, and not a PUMA-esque floor fight.
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Sorry for the bad formatting. Razzum frazzum lack of preview capability :(.
August 20, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Politico is a GOP spin machine. Everything they say is propaganda.
This point has been made again and again.
Say, does Karl Rove think the GOP has a good chance, too?
The only solution is to stop quoting and stop reading Drudge, Politico and FoxNews.
August 20, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's pretty spinny, I'll give you that.
But I'm not sure how not reading it (critically, of course) helps.
August 20, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read it only in the way you would read a memo from Karl Rove himself -- knowing that it may be pure spin, lies, cheerleading, smears, or even a head fake.
August 20, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Politico regularly runs with GOP talking points that are sent out daily. The GOP is probably pushing the "Republican Resurgence" line in their memo's to all media.
Why write the news, when the campaigns can write it for you. And if you piss them off, well then left out of the loop and marginalized. How do you think BushCo. got away with what they did? If you want access you have to kiss ass.
August 20, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting read from Gallup on Obama's polling numbers:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109663/ReAssessing-Obamas-UnderPerformance-Polls.aspx
August 20, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the polls will stay tight right up to the election. It's really going to come down to who can get out the vote on Nov. 2nd.
August 20, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Henry Kissinger told Medvedev that a McCain victory was "assured". He is either 1) such a reflexive racist he can't imagine people actually voting for Obama, or 2) privy to the fix that is in.
If young people, not well represented in telephone polls, can take time off from their non-union jobs to vote, GOP will go down in flames.
August 20, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or was it Sa'akashvili he told that to?
August 20, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure I believe the "fix is in."
The GOP will do everything it can to put its big fat thumb on the scales, for certain.
But a nation-wide election, with fifty different states running the polls would be hard to "fix" completely.
August 20, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
You don't have to "fix" all the states, just a couple of key ones. Why fix Arizona for McCain, when he's going to take it in a landslide?
August 28, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please don't forget that in order to qualify as a "likely voter" you have to have voted in the last 2 elections...
A lot of Obama's strength comes from people who have not.
August 20, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent point. Also this poll doesn't include anyone who only has a cell phone.
As I said, I think "likely voters" is a broken category, at the moment.
August 20, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
We can question the Zogby snap shot but it seems undeniable that the trend shows Obama at least slipping if not behind.
I continue to think that only the unlikely announcement that Obama has chosen Hillary will
ensure his election. Doesn't matter what we think of her( I voted for Obama)or what the Republicans think. It's what her disappointed supporters think. However much we scorn them here, their votes count. Obama needs them.
She is the only one of the short list of candidates who can be counted on for support in more than one state.
Sadly I think Obama is going to do what most of us want and choose someone else.
August 20, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking for myself, I have no idea who Obama will choose.
HRC might not be a bad choice, then again I could see some problems with it. She would probably consolidate the party a bit, but she would probably also turn off independents. That's my read, anyhow.
August 20, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
She has way more negatives than positives, although I have to admit that I came into this saying I would vote for Obama only if Hill wasn't on the ticket...McCain has me so jacked up I'll vote for Obama even if she is...there, I said it and it didn't even make me throw up.
August 20, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama can not choose a VP who has voted for the war. If he does, this would be the end of his candidacy, and it would mean that his campaign for change has been meaningless.
So no to Clinton, and no to Biden.
August 20, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that it's a problem if he chooses a VP who was pro war.But that describes Bayh and Biden. I don't know about Kaine but he is pro-life. So if it comes down HRC or one of those 3 I don't see any policy objection to his choosing her.And I've made my argument above, and in other posts, with respect to electoral appeal.
I disagree that Obama doesn't need help.
Zogby is not a flash in the pan. If you look at Pollster or Real Clear Politics Obama has been falling steadily for many weeks. Rather than looking at the most recent poll and comparing it with the last published one,I compare each poll with the last poll by the same organization. That method shows an almost uninterrupted decline.
August 20, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is going to win.
Duh.
August 20, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink