The New Republic (like almost everyone else, at this point) wonders why Obama has pulled ahead in the national polling:

These days, McCain’s every utterance about foreign policy seems to arrive packaged in an embarrassing slip (sorry, Senator, Pakistan doesn’t border Iraq); his crowds are paltry, and his campaign’s stage-managing of events (see the cheese-aisle press conference) is downright, well, JV.

Yet, somehow, despite all this, McCain remains in the game. This is not easy to explain–and it should cause a great deal of introspection at Obama headquarters. For all the many ways that the stars have aligned for Obama, he has yet to take full advantage of what historically has been a great opportunity. Of course, we speak of the economy. These are the type of painful times when voters invariably turn to Democrats. So why aren’t they turning to Obama in greater numbers?

Actually, it’s not terribly difficult to understand why Obama hasn’t pulled ahead in the polls; despite the fact that the national mood leans towards Democrats, it’s still the case - as it has been for the past eight years - that the electorate is basically evenly divided between the two parties.  After all, despite running in the in the aftermath of 9/11 (and in the midst of two wars), Bush only won reelection with a hair-thin margin of 2.4 percent (50.7/48.3).  When an electorate is this polarized, it should be a given that both candidates will be evenly matched for most of the election season.  We won’t see any real movement until the fall, when more people begin tuning into the campaign, and the various events swirling around (the economy, the war, etc.) begin to make an impact on each campaign.  Until then, please, chill out everyone.

(cross-posted from The United States of Jamerica)