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Polls Scholls!
Okay, there has been a lot made out of the polls as of late either its “Obama is up by blank, but he’s in trouble with blank” or “McCain is gaining ground on Obama in blah blah blah.”
The most important poll that has been released is the one citing the “Enthusiasm” for the candidates. You know the one that says:
WHY?
Well, this election more than many in the past will be a turn out election (Duh, isn’t every election). Who ever turns out their base will win. You see a poll is a measure of who is willing to pick up the phone and answer some questions. An election is a battle of who is able to mobilize a larger force to take a half-day off of work, weave through traffic, stand in line (and by many accounts this year could have some LONG LINES) and pull the Lever or punch the card. (Come on Democratic Floridians, go the gym and work out those arms, sometimes its really difficult it is to push a pin all the way through a tiny hole. [That’s what she said HI-YO!!!])
This election unlike the past several has a candidate on the Democratic side that people ACTUALLY WANT TO VOTE FOR. A vote for Kerry was a vote AGAINST Bush. (Kerry was boring, and didn’t distance himself in the debate, he didn’t fight back when he was attacked. What if AMERICA is attacked? Would he fight back then?) A vote for Gore was a vote for someone slightly less conservative, but a lot less fun than Bush. (This isn’t Gore OS X of 2008. Go back to the Gore Windows 3.1 of 2000 remember, this was pre-fire and brimstone environment saving Nobel Award Winning Gore. This was the Gore that was afraid of trotting out the Democratic Champion, Bill Clinton, until it was too late. THAT Al Gore) Some low info Democrats called Gore “the lesser of two evils.”
This election unlike many in the past has many CLEAR ideological dividing lines BUT what is absent are the POLARIZING and MOBILIZING NIMBY (Not In My BackYard) issues that the GOP has counted on in the past. There isn’t a huge Debate on immigration between the Candidates. There isn’t a huge difference on Gay Marriage. And in the case of Morality, Personal Responsibility, and Family Values, Obama has thoroughly snatched that mantle from the GOP being in a committed 16+ years Marriage, Divorce free, and openly discussing his faith with all who would hear it (well, unless you still think he’s a Muslim and that’s a WHOLE other discussion). Now that the traditional arguments“Mexicans, Gays, and Blow Jobs” are off the table we have an election built upon the issues that most people care about but the see it as “Too Big.”
Some of you are gonna say “Well there are people that are for the war and some that are against it.” War is a lot like abortion. No one is really FOR ABORTIONS they are for the protections of the rights of the mother or protection of the rights of the Fetus. If by biological design a woman could pick and choose when she would have a happy and healthy baby (You know, like she could tell the ovaries to stop sending eggs down until she’s ready to pop out a kid and take care of it in 9 months) then there would be probably few to no abortions. With No Abortions there would be no fight, everybody is happy. (Okay, Okay, there would still be that radical wing of the right that thinks that Sex is Evil [except if the sex is in an airport bathroom, or with a black maid with who you have a child with and deny until you croak]) Going back to war, both candidates are FOR the protection of the Interests of the United States. Where they differ is how to exercise those protections.
Oh and back to abortion for a moment, Pro life and Pro Choice. This election does have two people on very opposite sides of the spectrum on this issue. But in McCain’s need to appeal to women and to still appear to be moderate, his Pro-Life stance has been reduced to a whisper campaign to specific constituencies. “Pssst, evangelicals, there won’t be any baby killing on my watch, My Friends.” The evangelicals are all like “Hey, Why aren’t you making that a CENTRAL part of your campaign!?! Why don’t you tell EVERYONE how you feel about us!?! WHY ARE YOU WHISPERING!?! The Pro-Life Evangelicals sound like the used mistress in the hotel room sobbing, while McCain sits on the edge of the bed saying ‘I love you, I’m working late but I’ll be home shortly’ to his Pro-Choice Moderate Swing Vote Wife on the phone. The Mistress thinks he loves them but they can never be sure cause he won’t leave his wife [unless she's been disfigured in a car accident, gut that's a WHOLE other story].
Back to Big Issues. Health Care, Taxes, Economy, Social Security. Most Low Info voters don’t know how to fix these problems so they rely on the government to do it. People are always going to go to the doctor when the hurt, People will always pay taxes, People will be in and out of Jobs til the end of time, and As long as the check comes at the first of the month for the old people they won’t feel the HUGE STING. The perception is “that’s just the way things are.” Now I’m not saying these things aren’t important, they are HUGELY important. They just aren’t NIMBY issues. Yes, a corporate stock holder VERY MUCH cares about who foots the bill on health insurance (if the Auto Industry was smart they would have backed Hillary’s Health plan in 1993 and they wouldn’t be in such a deficit right now). But as long as an every day Joe can go to the Doc when he needs to either by paying more in taxes to the government or more in premiums to his insurance company through his company, then he’s covered. These issues truly boil down to “My Plan is Better Than HIS Plan!!!” Who ever screams it the loudest, boils it down to the simplest terms, and convinces more people he’s right, WINS.
Back to the beginning, Enthusiasm. In years past, candidates have energized young people and then on Election Day the youngins’ forget to go to the polls. [See the Bart Simpson for President episode] This year is a LITTLE bit different. Because Obama has gotten these youngins’ not only energized, but INVOLVED with the campaign AND he’s got them to INVEST in the campaign with their hard earned Nintendo Wii video game money, he’s virtually forcing them to go to the polls or have their beer money wasted.
Little story, I used to organize parties in college. One of the things I learned very quickly is that if you have a FREE party, people would be all RAH RAH about it, they’d show up, no one would be there then they’d turn around and leave. Throw the same party weeks later, make them pay 2 bucks, and what happens? All the same people show up, but because they paid to get in so they’d stay and “not waste their money” (yeah, a whole 2 dollars) and the party would be a blast because they all stayed and they all partied together.
Those 5 dollar, 10 dollar, and 25 dollar donations are all but guaranteeing that these young kids that don’t normally show up at the polls, will follow through and cash in on their Obama investment.
Oh and yeah, about these kids. They typically don’t get counted in polls. Its sort of like Nielson ratings. Millions of people watch TV in bars, college dorms, or in Best Buy (the chairs and surround sound is awesome). None of those things are factored into Nielson ratings points. Nielson measures households and they freely admit they have no way of accurately sampling those nomadic viewers. Same things with these polls. The VAST majority of students primary method of contact is Cellphone. Most polls don’t contact folks on cellphones. So Millions of potential voters who could go 60-40 or 70-30 Obama-McCain aren’t represented in the polls.
Let’s look at the other side. Fortunately, I work for an organization that makes calls on behalf of the Heritage Foundation as well as MANY left wing organizations so I get to see both sides of the politcal spectrum. The Heritage foundation is an Uber right wing think tank. These are people who aren’t happy with Bush “Cause he done made the government too big.” Think, Reagan. It’s a tax exempt organization so we can’t Bash a candidate in favor of another BUT… If you want to get some one to donate you can bash Nameless faceless Liberals, then let them do all the talking. It’s completely legal to say something along the lines of “These liberals are ruining everything. Look at this election, there’s a Republican running, a Democrat running, but there isn’t a single Dyed in the Wool Conservative running.” Most likely the flame start shooting out of the phone as the Donor goes on an angry Tirade about both candidates and how “It’s like we have to choose the lesser of two liberals” (yes, that was from an actual quote 72 year old Lady from Georgia). Then you switch on to how the Heritage wants to build a support base for Conservative idea and that’ll foster more conservatism and more conservative candidates for the future. Then they give us money. That’s money that’s not going to McCain but going to a group that has consistently been to the right of McCain. These are people that would vote for an evil Reagan Zombie if he was on the ballot with Mac & B.
Now how many of those Lesser of Two Liberal voters are gonna stay home or Vote Bob Barr? Hmmm. That’s the mystery. By any measure the polls are poop we’ll see who is the winner in November.
The most important poll that has been released is the one citing the “Enthusiasm” for the candidates. You know the one that says:
According to the poll, 44 percent of Obama voters say they are excited about their candidate, but only 14 percent of McCain voters say that of the Arizona Republican. Forty-two percent say they're satisfied with him, and 43 percent say he’s the lesser of two evils.
-- http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25816799/
WHY?
Well, this election more than many in the past will be a turn out election (Duh, isn’t every election). Who ever turns out their base will win. You see a poll is a measure of who is willing to pick up the phone and answer some questions. An election is a battle of who is able to mobilize a larger force to take a half-day off of work, weave through traffic, stand in line (and by many accounts this year could have some LONG LINES) and pull the Lever or punch the card. (Come on Democratic Floridians, go the gym and work out those arms, sometimes its really difficult it is to push a pin all the way through a tiny hole. [That’s what she said HI-YO!!!])
This election unlike the past several has a candidate on the Democratic side that people ACTUALLY WANT TO VOTE FOR. A vote for Kerry was a vote AGAINST Bush. (Kerry was boring, and didn’t distance himself in the debate, he didn’t fight back when he was attacked. What if AMERICA is attacked? Would he fight back then?) A vote for Gore was a vote for someone slightly less conservative, but a lot less fun than Bush. (This isn’t Gore OS X of 2008. Go back to the Gore Windows 3.1 of 2000 remember, this was pre-fire and brimstone environment saving Nobel Award Winning Gore. This was the Gore that was afraid of trotting out the Democratic Champion, Bill Clinton, until it was too late. THAT Al Gore) Some low info Democrats called Gore “the lesser of two evils.”
This election unlike many in the past has many CLEAR ideological dividing lines BUT what is absent are the POLARIZING and MOBILIZING NIMBY (Not In My BackYard) issues that the GOP has counted on in the past. There isn’t a huge Debate on immigration between the Candidates. There isn’t a huge difference on Gay Marriage. And in the case of Morality, Personal Responsibility, and Family Values, Obama has thoroughly snatched that mantle from the GOP being in a committed 16+ years Marriage, Divorce free, and openly discussing his faith with all who would hear it (well, unless you still think he’s a Muslim and that’s a WHOLE other discussion). Now that the traditional arguments“Mexicans, Gays, and Blow Jobs” are off the table we have an election built upon the issues that most people care about but the see it as “Too Big.”
Some of you are gonna say “Well there are people that are for the war and some that are against it.” War is a lot like abortion. No one is really FOR ABORTIONS they are for the protections of the rights of the mother or protection of the rights of the Fetus. If by biological design a woman could pick and choose when she would have a happy and healthy baby (You know, like she could tell the ovaries to stop sending eggs down until she’s ready to pop out a kid and take care of it in 9 months) then there would be probably few to no abortions. With No Abortions there would be no fight, everybody is happy. (Okay, Okay, there would still be that radical wing of the right that thinks that Sex is Evil [except if the sex is in an airport bathroom, or with a black maid with who you have a child with and deny until you croak]) Going back to war, both candidates are FOR the protection of the Interests of the United States. Where they differ is how to exercise those protections.
Oh and back to abortion for a moment, Pro life and Pro Choice. This election does have two people on very opposite sides of the spectrum on this issue. But in McCain’s need to appeal to women and to still appear to be moderate, his Pro-Life stance has been reduced to a whisper campaign to specific constituencies. “Pssst, evangelicals, there won’t be any baby killing on my watch, My Friends.” The evangelicals are all like “Hey, Why aren’t you making that a CENTRAL part of your campaign!?! Why don’t you tell EVERYONE how you feel about us!?! WHY ARE YOU WHISPERING!?! The Pro-Life Evangelicals sound like the used mistress in the hotel room sobbing, while McCain sits on the edge of the bed saying ‘I love you, I’m working late but I’ll be home shortly’ to his Pro-Choice Moderate Swing Vote Wife on the phone. The Mistress thinks he loves them but they can never be sure cause he won’t leave his wife [unless she's been disfigured in a car accident, gut that's a WHOLE other story].
Back to Big Issues. Health Care, Taxes, Economy, Social Security. Most Low Info voters don’t know how to fix these problems so they rely on the government to do it. People are always going to go to the doctor when the hurt, People will always pay taxes, People will be in and out of Jobs til the end of time, and As long as the check comes at the first of the month for the old people they won’t feel the HUGE STING. The perception is “that’s just the way things are.” Now I’m not saying these things aren’t important, they are HUGELY important. They just aren’t NIMBY issues. Yes, a corporate stock holder VERY MUCH cares about who foots the bill on health insurance (if the Auto Industry was smart they would have backed Hillary’s Health plan in 1993 and they wouldn’t be in such a deficit right now). But as long as an every day Joe can go to the Doc when he needs to either by paying more in taxes to the government or more in premiums to his insurance company through his company, then he’s covered. These issues truly boil down to “My Plan is Better Than HIS Plan!!!” Who ever screams it the loudest, boils it down to the simplest terms, and convinces more people he’s right, WINS.
Back to the beginning, Enthusiasm. In years past, candidates have energized young people and then on Election Day the youngins’ forget to go to the polls. [See the Bart Simpson for President episode] This year is a LITTLE bit different. Because Obama has gotten these youngins’ not only energized, but INVOLVED with the campaign AND he’s got them to INVEST in the campaign with their hard earned Nintendo Wii video game money, he’s virtually forcing them to go to the polls or have their beer money wasted.
Little story, I used to organize parties in college. One of the things I learned very quickly is that if you have a FREE party, people would be all RAH RAH about it, they’d show up, no one would be there then they’d turn around and leave. Throw the same party weeks later, make them pay 2 bucks, and what happens? All the same people show up, but because they paid to get in so they’d stay and “not waste their money” (yeah, a whole 2 dollars) and the party would be a blast because they all stayed and they all partied together.
Those 5 dollar, 10 dollar, and 25 dollar donations are all but guaranteeing that these young kids that don’t normally show up at the polls, will follow through and cash in on their Obama investment.
Oh and yeah, about these kids. They typically don’t get counted in polls. Its sort of like Nielson ratings. Millions of people watch TV in bars, college dorms, or in Best Buy (the chairs and surround sound is awesome). None of those things are factored into Nielson ratings points. Nielson measures households and they freely admit they have no way of accurately sampling those nomadic viewers. Same things with these polls. The VAST majority of students primary method of contact is Cellphone. Most polls don’t contact folks on cellphones. So Millions of potential voters who could go 60-40 or 70-30 Obama-McCain aren’t represented in the polls.
Let’s look at the other side. Fortunately, I work for an organization that makes calls on behalf of the Heritage Foundation as well as MANY left wing organizations so I get to see both sides of the politcal spectrum. The Heritage foundation is an Uber right wing think tank. These are people who aren’t happy with Bush “Cause he done made the government too big.” Think, Reagan. It’s a tax exempt organization so we can’t Bash a candidate in favor of another BUT… If you want to get some one to donate you can bash Nameless faceless Liberals, then let them do all the talking. It’s completely legal to say something along the lines of “These liberals are ruining everything. Look at this election, there’s a Republican running, a Democrat running, but there isn’t a single Dyed in the Wool Conservative running.” Most likely the flame start shooting out of the phone as the Donor goes on an angry Tirade about both candidates and how “It’s like we have to choose the lesser of two liberals” (yes, that was from an actual quote 72 year old Lady from Georgia). Then you switch on to how the Heritage wants to build a support base for Conservative idea and that’ll foster more conservatism and more conservative candidates for the future. Then they give us money. That’s money that’s not going to McCain but going to a group that has consistently been to the right of McCain. These are people that would vote for an evil Reagan Zombie if he was on the ballot with Mac & B.
Now how many of those Lesser of Two Liberal voters are gonna stay home or Vote Bob Barr? Hmmm. That’s the mystery. By any measure the polls are poop we’ll see who is the winner in November.
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