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Where are the Super Delegates?
It has been conventional wisdom, and I have also believed, that once Obama wrapped up the pledged delegate majority we would see a rapid consolidation of remaining super delegates behind him. Yet since Obama crossed the pledged delegate threshold on Tuesday, there has not been much movement.
So what's going on? What are they waiting for at this point?
My thoughts:
Waiting for resolution to MI & FL. They don't want to appear that they are rendering the decision on that moot. Although, on the flip side, how will Obama ever agree to anything that risks his majority?
Waiting for the end of the primaries. This is out of respect for Clinton, allowing her to finish the way she wants to before officially backing Obama.
Waiting for the summer or the convention. This would be if the remaining super delegates are genuinely skeptical about Obama's electability and are still weighing whether on not they should back Clinton. But it would have to be a vast majority of remaining super delegates thinking this way, which seems very unlikely.
Any other possibilities?
So what's going on? What are they waiting for at this point?
My thoughts:
Waiting for resolution to MI & FL. They don't want to appear that they are rendering the decision on that moot. Although, on the flip side, how will Obama ever agree to anything that risks his majority?
Waiting for the end of the primaries. This is out of respect for Clinton, allowing her to finish the way she wants to before officially backing Obama.
Waiting for the summer or the convention. This would be if the remaining super delegates are genuinely skeptical about Obama's electability and are still weighing whether on not they should back Clinton. But it would have to be a vast majority of remaining super delegates thinking this way, which seems very unlikely.
Any other possibilities?
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They're Democrats. They are not known for their leadership qualities, risk-taking, or political common sense. Give them a break.
May 22, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is very surprising and sad. There Super Delegates are responsible for this mess!
Clnton got one today (from Guam), and what is the saddest part to me, is that they have let her devise the party, tear Obama down...
And now, she is crying out loud that what happened in Florida is like what happened in Zimbabwe...
She claims that she is winning the popular vote, which is the most ridiculous and ludicrous comments ever. (Not counting 4 caucuses, and no Obma votes in Michigan)
I also hope that the Sds (the ones that haven't declared yet) will not be rewarded, regardless of their importance in the party, and these super delegates should removed in the next democratic elections.
May 22, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is that some of them, especially the reps, are waiting until all votes are cast--sensitive to the 2000 mess and not wanting HRC to scream "no fair." HRC and Bill still have a considerable machine behind them and they can make things very ugly if they want to. If, she wants to waste her donors' money until June 3, then they will sit and wait.
May 22, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe the more appropriate question is where is the Democratic leadership? Where is Gore? Where is Pelosi? Dean?
What are they waiting for?
May 22, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
They're waiting for June 3rd.
HRC has created this "truth" that all the voters "should get to vote". So how on earth do you come out against that notion?
They won't let this go to the convention, but they're also not going to shut this down with only 2 weeks left.
May 22, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know for sure that Gore is waiting for all the votes to be counted. He has no choice but to do so--he of all people. Pelosi and Dean know it's in the bag for Obama but don't want Hillary's wrath. Let her play her game until there are no pieces left. Then she and her supporters can't cry foul. The DNC needs HRC supporters going into the fall, not just for the Presidential race, but for all the down ticket races. It's a financial strategy more than anything. Don't tick off the Clinton supporters because we will need them for all the races. It is painful to wait for sure, but it's not for the SDs to end it before the primaries are over. Only one person can end it with integrity, and she won't. Sad, but true.
May 22, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I think that's right.
It's also possible that Obama has been assured by a majority of super delegates that they will not override the pledged delegate lead, but will have to wait until June 3rd or shortly after to officially endorse, as you said.
May 22, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that's the case. And a big flurry of endorsements before June 3 would only make Clinton more desperate. Desperation is not a good place in the heads of the Clintons. Like Cat/Bunny says, she's getting scary.
May 22, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone assumed that Hillary Clinton was a sane, honorable, reasonable human being. That assumption was incorrect, and now the party is paying the price. What we're doing now is waiting out her tantrum. I don't think it will be enough. Sooner or later she's going to need to be physically restrained and removed from the room.
Hillary Clinton may possibly turn out to be the worst thing ever to happen to the Democratic Party.
May 22, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's the Pelosi Group of superdelegates (not sure how many) who have promised to vote for whoever gets a majority of pledged delegates. Now that Obama has crossed that line, with a majority of pledged delegates, why would they not be officially included in his count?
May 22, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because the Pelosi Group is chaired by Nancy Pelosi. She believes in the power of words--not in the power of action.
May 22, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hopeing that they are trying to let her finish the race, because you know, she will cry foul, and her supporters are looking, just looking for a reason to continue the victim play.
May 22, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just want to point everybody to Rachel Maddow's comments:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rachel-maddow/clinton-to-the-convention_b_103078.html
May 22, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
So here's the situation.
MI & FL are unlikely to be resolved on May 31.
Why? Because Clinton is going to push for nothing less than seating 100% of the delegates as they are. As Rachel points out, Obama will not accept this unless he has enough super delegate support to render the result moot.
Obama will probably not have enough super delegate support by then because they are all waiting for June 3 or whatever the end of the primaries are.
So MI & FL remain unresolved. Hillary pushes on. Primaries ends, supers get behind Obama. Margin is then big enough for Obama to concede to Clinton 100% of MI & FL and not risk losing the nomination.
But here's another potential problem... if Obama agrees to this, does he give Clinton enough pledged delegates to exceed his lead? In other words, does the argument about the super delegates supporting the winner of the pledged delegate majority now swing to Clinton? She would certainly make that argument if she could.
Does anyone know how many net pledged delegates Clinton stands to gain on Obama if they seat 100% of FL and MI?
May 22, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure. But if Obama concedes FL and MI, as Maddow suggests, Clinton will then say she's close enough to continue making her electability case to super delegates until the convention. So she stays in until the convention in either case. Several benefits to Clinton: she lessens Obama's chances of being elected in Nov, keeping the field open in 2012 and keeping the old-line Dems in control of the Party, and she has until forever to raise money to pay off her campaign debt.
As she has at every opportunity, she is trying to put Obama in a lose-lose situation: if he concedes FL and MI he looks weak and gives up his compelling lead in delegates. If he doesn't cave on MI and FL, she has an issue to misrepresent as an epic civil rights struggle 24/7 until the Convention, and she will use it to drive a wedge between Obama and voters in these key states, as she has worked to alienate demographic groups from Obama.
Her end-game is a lose-lose for Obama: force him to take her as VP or face months of divisive campaigning for superdelegates and a divided convention, bashed by Clinton within the Party as well as by Republicans at a time when he should have strong Party backing to campaign against McCain.
May 22, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary will take this to the convention. No matter what. Even if MI and FL get resolved entirely in her favor. And based on the silence of any democratic leaders, the DNC, or superdelegates, this is exactly what will happen.
Hillary has gone ballistic and has put her own ambitions before party unity. I'm amazed that many haven't seen that until now. If she really means all she cares about is that a democrat wins in November, she would not be creating further division in the party right now, she would not be exacerbating a racial divide, she would not be unfairly demanding that all Michigan votes, including uncommitted, be given to her. She would not be personally planting doubt about Obama's electability everywhere she goes. She would not waste two months continuing an inter-party fight, and preventing a unified effort against John McCain.
A few months ago, an MSNBC correspondent( Howard Fineman, I believe on KO) reported that the Clinton campaign was absolutely furious that the Rev. Wright issue didn't change everything.
It seems pretty apparent that they're trying to create something that will.
If Hillary hasn't stopped her fury by now, she never will. Her supporters won't budge.
If she were reasonable and understood that she is one small part of a whole democratic party, and if I were confident that she would concede the point that she hasn't enough delegates to overcome Obama's majority, I'd have no problem with her continuing the race.
But respect and courtesy and grace have been answered not with reconciliation but retribution.
This is not a fight to win the nomination. It's a completely selfish plight to overturn yet another election.
At this point, every day she continues this tantrum damages Obama's chances, her own chances and the party's chances to win in November.
My advice would be to seat Florida and Michigan before May 31st, and get the supers to grow a backbone and award Obama the nomination.
There is no sign that continuing this will be to the benefit of all.
It is to the benefit of one.
Wake up.
May 22, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The longer You-Know-Her continues tilting at windmills in Seizure World retirement homes, the more strident and less worthy of the presidency she makes herself look. Giving her as much rope as she needs to aggressively hang herself makes sense from the DNC's point of view. Why take any heat for doing to You-Know-Her what she will do to herself in any event? Switching metaphors: Two more increasingly desperate weeks ought to allow You-Know-Her to cook her own goose in her own grease. No one else needs to come anywhere near the smoking stove.
Senator Obama, for his part, needs only to remain calm and generous in the face of You-Know-Her's televised tantrums. Even this patient forebearance will earn him the enraged epithet of "patronizing" from You-Know-Her and her supporters, but he should persist in focusing on Panama-John McBomb. No woman has a worse enemy than her best friend, and with You-Know-Her best friends with herself, Senator Obama and the DNC need do nothing while the enemy of their enemy befriends them more than herself.
May 22, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink