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Utah Factor Revisited
In a previous post, I commented on how Utah voted in the primaries, and how exit polls showed Obama would beat Huckabee, and could be competitive against McCain/Huckabee.
Now, Utah is one of the most Republican states in the union, and it is a long shot to believe that Obama would actually win Utah's few delegates in November. NB, it would be impossible for Clinton. However, Obama's impact is being felt here and democrats do stand to gain and make Utah more "purple" if Obama is the nominee.
The down-ticket positive effect of Obama as the nominee would go a long way to helping Democrats in Utah win over state legislature seats. In my very district, the "Obama effect" has encourage the best democratic candidate we have ever had for state legislature and he may very well unseat the Republican incumbent.
This effect is also being felt at the top level in Utah. One of our non-publicly elected super delegates had committed for Clinton in October, and now is sitting on the fence. Officially in the Clinton column, she may very well vote for Obama.
Here is a great story from NPR discussing it:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89408886
Hillary has always included Utah in the states a democrat will never win. It pains me every time she says that. With her approach it's true. With Obama's approach it isn't. We need Obama for the good of the whole party!
To Hillary supporters, please realize that Hillary's approach to marginalize "red" states has a very negative impact and is damaging to the party both nationally and locally. Obama's inclusive approach will help to capture not only the Presidency, but also Senate seats, House seats, and improve Democratic positions in State and local governments.
Now, Utah is one of the most Republican states in the union, and it is a long shot to believe that Obama would actually win Utah's few delegates in November. NB, it would be impossible for Clinton. However, Obama's impact is being felt here and democrats do stand to gain and make Utah more "purple" if Obama is the nominee.
The down-ticket positive effect of Obama as the nominee would go a long way to helping Democrats in Utah win over state legislature seats. In my very district, the "Obama effect" has encourage the best democratic candidate we have ever had for state legislature and he may very well unseat the Republican incumbent.
This effect is also being felt at the top level in Utah. One of our non-publicly elected super delegates had committed for Clinton in October, and now is sitting on the fence. Officially in the Clinton column, she may very well vote for Obama.
Here is a great story from NPR discussing it:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89408886
Hillary has always included Utah in the states a democrat will never win. It pains me every time she says that. With her approach it's true. With Obama's approach it isn't. We need Obama for the good of the whole party!
To Hillary supporters, please realize that Hillary's approach to marginalize "red" states has a very negative impact and is damaging to the party both nationally and locally. Obama's inclusive approach will help to capture not only the Presidency, but also Senate seats, House seats, and improve Democratic positions in State and local governments.
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Very good points.
I've been speaking with my grandparents and parents who live in UT (and are conservative Mormons), about Obama. My grandparents, surprisingly to me, were already preferring him over the other choices. I have sent some speeches and the audio of The Audacity of Hope to my mother for her to listen to. She enjoyed it and is very open to an Obama presidency.
I think you are right that an Obama nomination will really help out down-ticket in Utah. I still think that he will have a hard time winning, since voters in Utah are so accustomed to just checking the GOP box and being done with it. But, voter turnout tends to be pretty low in UT, and Obama could actually mobilize the under-45 vote and pull an upset. It will be fascinating to see.
While on the topic, none of my UT family will vote for Hillary. I don't think I could talk any of them into it. But they are open to Obama.
April 9, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I posted a similar comment on another site but will post a modified version here because it applies to what is going on in Utah.
Although Idaho, is also one of the Reddest of the Red states, we do have a record of strong, prominent and very successful national (as well as local) Democrats. First, this is the state of three six year term US Senator Frank Church (who died of cancer in the 1980s). Second, this is the state of two term governor Cecil Andrus (his last term ending in 1990s) who also served in the Carter administration. Third, the notion that despite Church and Andrus (as well as many others), that today, Democrats cannot win in this state for any national office is simply not true.
In the last election, Bill Sali's run for the 1st congressional district was so threatened that Vice President Cheney, the freakin' Vice President came twice to the state as did other prominent national Republicans to raise money for Sali. Republicans had to dump a lot of money into an election that they assumed was theirs. The Democrat did not win BUT the election was much closer than anyone expected. In fact, keep your eyes open for Larry Grant who will again run against Sali.
As in Utah, Sen. Obama has helped to galvanize Democrats. His campaign had people on the ground here for nearly a year before February 5 and worked really hard to mobilize Democrats. This is the reason why when Sen Obama came to Boise there were over 14000 of us in the stadium and why he definitively won the state.
It is short-sighted to emphasize only the presidential election. The President can do little without an effective Congress of like-minded members. The more Democratic Senators and Representatives we can get elected from ALL of the states is and should be the other goal.
Will Idaho go blue for the 2008 presidential election? Probably not. Will Idaho Democrats gain in the City, County, State and National elections? Most likely yes. Is supporting Democrats regardless of what state they live a useful long-term goal, absolutely.
April 9, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Downticket is where the real action is. And remember, in two more years, it's going to help to be an incumbent when the elections that determine who does the next round of redistricting roll around.
That is when the fun begins. I can easily visualize Republicans having to deal with the payback for DeLay's slimy shenanigans, and it looks sweet...
April 10, 2008 1:55 AM | Reply | Permalink