Six More Weeks Til June - A look back at what can happen in 6 short weeks
3.6 million ticks of the clock. 60480 minutes. 1008 hours. 42 days. 6 weeks. An eternity in politics.
Six weeks ago we took in the results of the Wyoming caucus, speculated about the size of Obama’s certain victory in the upcoming Mississippi primary, and generally girded ourselves for the largest chasm of electoral inactivity in this never-ending primary year. We asked ourselves whether there was any chance Hillary Clinton would drop out of the race before the Pennsylvania primary, whether the Super Delegates would move en masse to one candidate or the other, and whether Obama would suffer the kind of campaign-ending blow that the Clinton camp has predicated as its raison d’etre for slogging onward.
In early March, looking ahead six weeks felt like gazing across the universe. Yet, here we are, nearing the close of this longest period of pure campaigning with no elections to analyze. Pundits predicting disaster for the Democrats in the form of a prolonged campaign are not really any more credible now than they were six weeks ago. The campaigns have survived the gulf and we close observers have survived to face another significant six-week stretch: the last primaries of the season are now six weeks away.
The next six weeks will be another feast of electoral riches as we prognosticate over 10 contests on seven election dates, with the longest interval between contests a mere 14 days. The final six weeks are going to move faster and provide more definitive movement toward a final outcome than the preceding six weeks. At long last, the end of this extraordinary primary season is in sight.
What can happen in six weeks in a primary campaign? Apparently, neither the best nor the worst scenario for either of the Democratic candidates, looking back over the events of March and April.
Six weeks ago, March 8, Greg Sargent posts: “Poll: Hillary Back In National Tie With Obama; 3 A.M. Ad Might Have Helped”. The Intrade market has Obama’s chances for the Democratic nomination at 72/100.
We learn that one of the children in Clinton’s 3am ad is now a 17-year-old fervent supporter of Barack Obama.
Over the weekend leading up to the Mississippi primary, we ponder whether Eliot Spitzer, outed as a patron of high-priced prostitutes, but not yet having resigned, will hurt Hillary Clinton by association.
March 11 - As Obama scores a 25-point victory over Clinton in Mississippi, SurveyUSA reported a 19-point lead for Clinton in polls of Pennsylvania voters.
Sinbad is quoted: "I think the only 'red-phone' moment was: 'Do we eat here or at the next place.'"
March 12 - Geraldine Ferraro resigns her position on the Clinton campaign finance committee.
Keith Olbermann, in a special commentary on MSNBC, implores the Clinton campaign to disavow race-based rhetoric and improve the tone of the contest.
March 13 – Nancy Pelosi suggests there will be no Obama/Clinton dream ticket in the fall.
March 14 - Obama posts a statement on the Huffington Post condemning Rev. Wright’s controversial remarks. Rev. Wright resigns from his role on Obama’s African American Religious Leadership Committee.
5 weeks ago
March 16 – Chicago Tribune editorial board reports satisfaction with Obama’s answers to all Rezko-related questions fielded in a 90-minute interview on March 14.
March 17 – in a speech on national security Clinton laughingly recounts running across the tarmac at the Tuzla airport in Bosnia in 1996 in fear of sniper fire.
Florida Democrats declare a revote there officially dead.
March 18 - Obama gives a speech at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia to address race in America.
March 19 - The National Archives release Clinton’s White House calendar and daily agendas.
March 20 - the Clinton campaign acknowledges that it’s making an argument to undeclared Super Delegates based on the statements of Rev. Wright.
In an interview on Philadelphia radio, Obama characterizes his grandmother as a “typical white person”.
Michigan’s Gov. Jennifer Granholm announces her disappointment that a revote in Michigan is officially dead.
We learn that State Department employees have opened passport records of the candidates.
A photo of Rev. Wright at a White House meeting of religious leaders surfaces.
March 21 - Bill Richardson endorses Barack Obama.
James Carville likens Richardson’s endorsement to Judas’ betrayal of Jesus.
FEC reports indicate that the Clinton campaign is running a net debt in campaign funds.
The Washington Post’s Fact Checker awards Clinton’s Tuzla sniper remarks 4 Pinocchios.
March 22 – Gen. Tony McPeak compares statements by Bill Clinton to tactics used by Joe McCarthy.
4 weeks ago
March 23 – JedReport.com posts footage of Clinton’s arrival and greeting in Tuzla, Bosnia.
March 24 - Clinton supporter Evan Bayh suggests that Super Delegates should consider the aggregate electoral college votes of the states the Democratic candidates have won in the primaries.
Clinton campaign states that candidate may have misspoke in recounting her visit to Tuzla.
March 25 – Clinton tells the editorial board of the Philadelphia Daily News the Pledged Delegates, like the Supers, can vote for whomever they like at the convention.
Speaking to the Pittsburgh newspaper, Clinton says Rev. Wright would not have been her pastor.
Obama releases tax returns for 2000 – 2006.
March 26 – Clinton fundraisers send letter to Nancy Pelosi criticizing her statements about how Super Delegates should vote for the pledged delegate leader.
March 27 – MoveOn.org initiates petition in support of Nancy Pelosi’s Super Delegate position.
March 28 – Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey endorses Obama.
Howard Dean calls on Super Delegates to declare their support by July 1.
Patrick Leahy calls on Clinton to withdraw from primary race.
The University of Chicago Law School releases statement verifying Obama’s Professor status.
March 29 – Texas holds County Conventions, assigning complete delegate count for Texas caucuses.
Obama bowls 7 frames at Pennsylvania bowling alley and knocks down 37 pins.
3 weeks ago
March 30 – Obama says he doesn’t want his daughters punished with a baby.
March 31 – A 1996 positions survey completed by Obama reported to include Obama’s handwriting on survey.
Richard Mellon Scaife publishes favorable editorial about Clinton in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Reviews of the Clinton campaign’s FEC filings reveal a large number of unpaid bills to vendors.
April 1 – SurveyUSA puts Clinton lead in Pennsylvania at 12 points, down 7 from 3 weeks earlier.
Clinton challenges Obama to a bowl-off.
April 2 – Karl Rove praises Clinton’s 3am national security ad.
Clinton unveils a second 3am ad, focusing on the economy.
Obama tells a photo-seeking voter that he won’t be smiling in the picture.
April 3 – Clinton campaign says Bill Richardson told Clintons that Obama was unelectable. Richardson denies the statements.
Randi Rhodes suspended from Air America radio.
April 4 – Reports surface that Mark Penn met with Colombian ambassador to discuss advocacy of Colombian trade deal.
Clinton releases tax returns for 2000 -2006.
April 5 – Colombia cancels its PR contract with Mark Penn’s firm.
An Ohio hospital disputes a Clinton campaign narrative about the death an uninsured woman.
2 weeks ago
April 6 – Clinton campaign demotes Mark Penn.
April 7 – Obama reveals he traveled to Pakistan while in college.
April 8 – Clinton and Obama question Gen. Patraeus in Senate hearing.
Reports surface that Bill Clinton supports trade deal with Colombia.
April 9 – Elton John headlines a fundraiser for Clinton.
April 10 – Bill Clinton defends Hillary’s Bosnia statements.
April 11 – Obama comments in private fundraiser, suggesting small-town voters are bitter, come to light via Huffington Post.
April 12 – Clinton relates that her father taught her how to shoot.
1 week ago
April 13 – Obama responds to Clinton criticisms with “Shame on You” and chides Clinton’s Pennsylvania shot-and-a-beer episode.
April 14 – Clinton airs TV ad in Pennsylvania critical of Obama’s small town remarks.
Kentucky Republican Geoff Davis refers to Obama as “that boy”.
April 15 – SurveyUSA puts Clinton lead in Pennsylvania at 14 points.
19 Pennsylvania mayors appear for Clinton to endorse her.
April 16 – Bruce Springsteen endorses Obama.
Clinton and Obama participate in ABC debate in Philadelphia.
Obama releases 2007 tax return.
Accounts of a 1995 meeting surface where Clinton alleged to have said “Screw Em” about southern working class white voters.
April 17 – Howard Dean calls on undecided Super Delegates to begin immediately announcing their support for candidates.
April 18 – Clinton and Obama campaigns trade criticisms about “whining” over debate treatment.
Former Senators Sam Nunn and David Boren and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich endorse Obama.
Newsweek poll puts Obama national lead at 19 points.
Clinton remarks surface about MoveOn.org activists intimidating Clinton supporters at caucuses.
April 19 – Gallup’s daily national tracking poll shows Clinton retaking lead from Obama.
Today
Pollster.com’s national polling averages put Obama’s support at 49.8%, Clinton’s at 40.4%. Pollster’s Pennsylvania averages show a 5-point lead by Clinton.
The Intrade market puts Obama’s chances for the nomination at 84/100, as 12 point gain over six weeks.
Two days to go until the final phase of the campaign season kicks off. Six weeks and change to the end of this endless primary season.
Six weeks ago we took in the results of the Wyoming caucus, speculated about the size of Obama’s certain victory in the upcoming Mississippi primary, and generally girded ourselves for the largest chasm of electoral inactivity in this never-ending primary year. We asked ourselves whether there was any chance Hillary Clinton would drop out of the race before the Pennsylvania primary, whether the Super Delegates would move en masse to one candidate or the other, and whether Obama would suffer the kind of campaign-ending blow that the Clinton camp has predicated as its raison d’etre for slogging onward.
In early March, looking ahead six weeks felt like gazing across the universe. Yet, here we are, nearing the close of this longest period of pure campaigning with no elections to analyze. Pundits predicting disaster for the Democrats in the form of a prolonged campaign are not really any more credible now than they were six weeks ago. The campaigns have survived the gulf and we close observers have survived to face another significant six-week stretch: the last primaries of the season are now six weeks away.
The next six weeks will be another feast of electoral riches as we prognosticate over 10 contests on seven election dates, with the longest interval between contests a mere 14 days. The final six weeks are going to move faster and provide more definitive movement toward a final outcome than the preceding six weeks. At long last, the end of this extraordinary primary season is in sight.
What can happen in six weeks in a primary campaign? Apparently, neither the best nor the worst scenario for either of the Democratic candidates, looking back over the events of March and April.
Six weeks ago, March 8, Greg Sargent posts: “Poll: Hillary Back In National Tie With Obama; 3 A.M. Ad Might Have Helped”. The Intrade market has Obama’s chances for the Democratic nomination at 72/100.
We learn that one of the children in Clinton’s 3am ad is now a 17-year-old fervent supporter of Barack Obama.
Over the weekend leading up to the Mississippi primary, we ponder whether Eliot Spitzer, outed as a patron of high-priced prostitutes, but not yet having resigned, will hurt Hillary Clinton by association.
March 11 - As Obama scores a 25-point victory over Clinton in Mississippi, SurveyUSA reported a 19-point lead for Clinton in polls of Pennsylvania voters.
Sinbad is quoted: "I think the only 'red-phone' moment was: 'Do we eat here or at the next place.'"
March 12 - Geraldine Ferraro resigns her position on the Clinton campaign finance committee.
Keith Olbermann, in a special commentary on MSNBC, implores the Clinton campaign to disavow race-based rhetoric and improve the tone of the contest.
March 13 – Nancy Pelosi suggests there will be no Obama/Clinton dream ticket in the fall.
March 14 - Obama posts a statement on the Huffington Post condemning Rev. Wright’s controversial remarks. Rev. Wright resigns from his role on Obama’s African American Religious Leadership Committee.
5 weeks ago
March 16 – Chicago Tribune editorial board reports satisfaction with Obama’s answers to all Rezko-related questions fielded in a 90-minute interview on March 14.
March 17 – in a speech on national security Clinton laughingly recounts running across the tarmac at the Tuzla airport in Bosnia in 1996 in fear of sniper fire.
Florida Democrats declare a revote there officially dead.
March 18 - Obama gives a speech at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia to address race in America.
March 19 - The National Archives release Clinton’s White House calendar and daily agendas.
March 20 - the Clinton campaign acknowledges that it’s making an argument to undeclared Super Delegates based on the statements of Rev. Wright.
In an interview on Philadelphia radio, Obama characterizes his grandmother as a “typical white person”.
Michigan’s Gov. Jennifer Granholm announces her disappointment that a revote in Michigan is officially dead.
We learn that State Department employees have opened passport records of the candidates.
A photo of Rev. Wright at a White House meeting of religious leaders surfaces.
March 21 - Bill Richardson endorses Barack Obama.
James Carville likens Richardson’s endorsement to Judas’ betrayal of Jesus.
FEC reports indicate that the Clinton campaign is running a net debt in campaign funds.
The Washington Post’s Fact Checker awards Clinton’s Tuzla sniper remarks 4 Pinocchios.
March 22 – Gen. Tony McPeak compares statements by Bill Clinton to tactics used by Joe McCarthy.
4 weeks ago
March 23 – JedReport.com posts footage of Clinton’s arrival and greeting in Tuzla, Bosnia.
March 24 - Clinton supporter Evan Bayh suggests that Super Delegates should consider the aggregate electoral college votes of the states the Democratic candidates have won in the primaries.
Clinton campaign states that candidate may have misspoke in recounting her visit to Tuzla.
March 25 – Clinton tells the editorial board of the Philadelphia Daily News the Pledged Delegates, like the Supers, can vote for whomever they like at the convention.
Speaking to the Pittsburgh newspaper, Clinton says Rev. Wright would not have been her pastor.
Obama releases tax returns for 2000 – 2006.
March 26 – Clinton fundraisers send letter to Nancy Pelosi criticizing her statements about how Super Delegates should vote for the pledged delegate leader.
March 27 – MoveOn.org initiates petition in support of Nancy Pelosi’s Super Delegate position.
March 28 – Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey endorses Obama.
Howard Dean calls on Super Delegates to declare their support by July 1.
Patrick Leahy calls on Clinton to withdraw from primary race.
The University of Chicago Law School releases statement verifying Obama’s Professor status.
March 29 – Texas holds County Conventions, assigning complete delegate count for Texas caucuses.
Obama bowls 7 frames at Pennsylvania bowling alley and knocks down 37 pins.
3 weeks ago
March 30 – Obama says he doesn’t want his daughters punished with a baby.
March 31 – A 1996 positions survey completed by Obama reported to include Obama’s handwriting on survey.
Richard Mellon Scaife publishes favorable editorial about Clinton in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Reviews of the Clinton campaign’s FEC filings reveal a large number of unpaid bills to vendors.
April 1 – SurveyUSA puts Clinton lead in Pennsylvania at 12 points, down 7 from 3 weeks earlier.
Clinton challenges Obama to a bowl-off.
April 2 – Karl Rove praises Clinton’s 3am national security ad.
Clinton unveils a second 3am ad, focusing on the economy.
Obama tells a photo-seeking voter that he won’t be smiling in the picture.
April 3 – Clinton campaign says Bill Richardson told Clintons that Obama was unelectable. Richardson denies the statements.
Randi Rhodes suspended from Air America radio.
April 4 – Reports surface that Mark Penn met with Colombian ambassador to discuss advocacy of Colombian trade deal.
Clinton releases tax returns for 2000 -2006.
April 5 – Colombia cancels its PR contract with Mark Penn’s firm.
An Ohio hospital disputes a Clinton campaign narrative about the death an uninsured woman.
2 weeks ago
April 6 – Clinton campaign demotes Mark Penn.
April 7 – Obama reveals he traveled to Pakistan while in college.
April 8 – Clinton and Obama question Gen. Patraeus in Senate hearing.
Reports surface that Bill Clinton supports trade deal with Colombia.
April 9 – Elton John headlines a fundraiser for Clinton.
April 10 – Bill Clinton defends Hillary’s Bosnia statements.
April 11 – Obama comments in private fundraiser, suggesting small-town voters are bitter, come to light via Huffington Post.
April 12 – Clinton relates that her father taught her how to shoot.
1 week ago
April 13 – Obama responds to Clinton criticisms with “Shame on You” and chides Clinton’s Pennsylvania shot-and-a-beer episode.
April 14 – Clinton airs TV ad in Pennsylvania critical of Obama’s small town remarks.
Kentucky Republican Geoff Davis refers to Obama as “that boy”.
April 15 – SurveyUSA puts Clinton lead in Pennsylvania at 14 points.
19 Pennsylvania mayors appear for Clinton to endorse her.
April 16 – Bruce Springsteen endorses Obama.
Clinton and Obama participate in ABC debate in Philadelphia.
Obama releases 2007 tax return.
Accounts of a 1995 meeting surface where Clinton alleged to have said “Screw Em” about southern working class white voters.
April 17 – Howard Dean calls on undecided Super Delegates to begin immediately announcing their support for candidates.
April 18 – Clinton and Obama campaigns trade criticisms about “whining” over debate treatment.
Former Senators Sam Nunn and David Boren and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich endorse Obama.
Newsweek poll puts Obama national lead at 19 points.
Clinton remarks surface about MoveOn.org activists intimidating Clinton supporters at caucuses.
April 19 – Gallup’s daily national tracking poll shows Clinton retaking lead from Obama.
Today
Pollster.com’s national polling averages put Obama’s support at 49.8%, Clinton’s at 40.4%. Pollster’s Pennsylvania averages show a 5-point lead by Clinton.
The Intrade market puts Obama’s chances for the nomination at 84/100, as 12 point gain over six weeks.
Two days to go until the final phase of the campaign season kicks off. Six weeks and change to the end of this endless primary season.
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"Six short weeks"?! "SHORT weeks"?!! These have been the six longest frigging weeks of my LIFE!!!
April 20, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bit ironic, isn't it? I agree, and I was thinking how to put in perspective the time left between now and June 3. A lot can happen, eh? ;-)
April 20, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uuuugghhh.
Thanks for all the work you did putting this together, GMan.
Funny how six weeks has seemed like an eternity; however, as far as the primary race goes, the measurable data shows that the trajectory of Obama's/Hillary's support is unchanged. Obama's position has strengthened; Hillary's has weakened.
She has given it her last, best shot. My hunch is that it'll be over after Pennsylvania.
April 21, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I read that and I realize that John Adams was shorter.
No, I don't mean the miniseries. I mean the life of the actual fucking President.
Holy crap.
George bailey: MERRY CHRISTMAS, MR. POTTER! HERE'S TO SIX MORE WEEEEKS!
Potter: And a Happy New Year! In JAIL! (Picks up phone to call the DNC to beg them to please God, make it stop)
April 20, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll see your John Adams and lower you a James Madison.
April 21, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
GMan! Welcome back to blogging!
Recommend for sure.
6 weeks *is* short. But if one spends crazy amounts of time microanalzying every gaseous emission from every orifice of every candidate and pundit...
...well, the aroma does get to be a bit pungent.
But gas has a way of dissipating pretty quick as well. As your summary elegantly shows.
April 20, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty interesting that in the 6-week interim there were only about half a dozen events of genuine significance: the decisions not to run new elections in MI/FL, the Texas county conventions, the Richardson endorsement and the Senate Patraeus hearings. Amazing what passes for genuine news in the absence of actual elections.
April 20, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good god I'm exhausted just reading that! What an interminable wait this has been. I'm thrilled to see people finally getting back to voting!!
Nice summary, thanks.
April 21, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great post Gary! You did a lot of work here. I'm glad this made it to the Rec'd list.
Recommend it up, people!
April 21, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I frankly do not understand how you had the fortitude to type this up after having lived all through all of this crap.
Recommended to pay it forward.
April 21, 2008 2:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
This really has been an agonzingly long six weeks. Only one day to go.....I'm so nervous.
April 21, 2008 4:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the 6 week rundown. It got me thinking what else has happened in that same 6 weeks.
For example: (approx figures)
The US National Debt increased by: $78 Billion
Dollars spent on the War in Iraq: $7.4 Billion
Petrol prices increased on average: $.20/Gallon
Children in world who died from hunger: 1.7 million
All the while the corporate media obsesses on flag pins and other petty distractions.
April 21, 2008 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
An even better perspective. Thank you.
April 21, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would have reworded April 16th thus:
"Clinton and Obama participate in ABC debate in Philadelphia in which Obama faces tough questions for the first time. Obama bombs. Obama spends the next few days calling it low politics."
But then I'm not biased toward Obama.
April 21, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are definitely a glutton for punishment if you're interested in rehashing the line items. ;-) One line for the debate is plenty to suggest everything that's ensued and been discussed ad nauseum, no?
I made an effort to characterize the events factually and not from a partisan bent. I also made a decision to minimize recording follow-ons to events, like the back and forth finger pointing or the release of dualing ads. Admittedly, I thought there were a number of independent "news" items related to Rev. Wright and Tuzla, so there's multiple references to those story lines.
April 21, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, when you list it like you have, one has to wonder how Hillary is still on her feet. How is it, with all Obama has had going for him, and with all his fundraising advantages, he didn't win long ago? How is he facing a defeat in Pennsylvania tomorrow?
Well, I have to agree with you on one thing. A lot can happen in six weeks.
April 21, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. Sure. Just Mrs. Clinton on her feet? How about Mr. Obama? He must be pretty exhausted too.
Whether he will actually face defeat in PA tomorrow depends on how one defines defeat. 2 months ago he told his SF supporters in a conference call that he would consider coming within 10 points of her a huge success.
Take heart.
April 21, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink