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Demand The MSM Start Telling The People The Truth !
Hillary trails in popular vote totals by 720,000 right now (not including Florida,Michigan, Maine, Washington, Nevada and Iowa). What will it take for Hillary to overcome that:
First and foremost, it will take a huge win in Pennsylvania to run up vote totals. Expecting about 2 million voters to come out, one would think she needs atleast a 200,000 vote total to start cutting into his lead. It will take a 20 point win just to pick up 200,000 votes.
After that, North Carolina and Indiana - there is a really good chance for Obama to win North Carolina by quite a bit, maybe even by 150,000. Indiana, at best for Hillary will be a close win - at best. So that will not help her overall vote totals.
Next up, will be West Virginia - which should be a comfortable win for Hillary. Im expecting a 20 point win there, which should pick her up 30,000
Then we have Oregon - which should be an easy win for Obama (double digits?). He should easily win by 30,000 - 40,000 votes.
The same day we have Kentucky - which should be a pretty big win for Hillary, definitely double digits. Win by 40,000 - 50,000 votes.
Puerto Rico could net Hillary another 100,000 votes.
Montana and Wyoming should be easy wins for Obama.
No matter how you slice it, at best, Hillary will trail by 500,000 votes. I stress, at best. Throw in the 300,000 Hillary picked up in Florida,
First and foremost, it will take a huge win in Pennsylvania to run up vote totals. Expecting about 2 million voters to come out, one would think she needs atleast a 200,000 vote total to start cutting into his lead. It will take a 20 point win just to pick up 200,000 votes.
After that, North Carolina and Indiana - there is a really good chance for Obama to win North Carolina by quite a bit, maybe even by 150,000. Indiana, at best for Hillary will be a close win - at best. So that will not help her overall vote totals.
Next up, will be West Virginia - which should be a comfortable win for Hillary. Im expecting a 20 point win there, which should pick her up 30,000
Then we have Oregon - which should be an easy win for Obama (double digits?). He should easily win by 30,000 - 40,000 votes.
The same day we have Kentucky - which should be a pretty big win for Hillary, definitely double digits. Win by 40,000 - 50,000 votes.
Puerto Rico could net Hillary another 100,000 votes.
Montana and Wyoming should be easy wins for Obama.
No matter how you slice it, at best, Hillary will trail by 500,000 votes. I stress, at best. Throw in the 300,000 Hillary picked up in Florida,
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I agree Clinton will win Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, and possibly Puerto Rico. Indiana is a toss-up. By the way the polls are fluctuating it is difficult to discern the measure by which she will win. In the case of Pennsylvania HRC is expected to win by a 10-14 point lead according to the congressional districts.
While Obama is slated to win South Dakota, Montana and Oregon he is trying to close the gap by how much he will lose in the aforementioned Hillary states. By cutting into the number of delegates in districts for Hillary with say 4 delegates, instead of 3 to 1 perhaps they split them evenly -- she gets 2 and Obama gets 2.
Iam curious what your numbers are based on.
Today Obama drew 7,000 - 10,000 people in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Thirty-five thousand to forty-thousand people came to see him in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh. The huge crowds he is drawing indicates he may narrow Hillary's lead, but by how much is frustratingly unclear.
You are correct though Obama is too far ahead in delegates, popular votes and money for her to catch-up. IMHO
April 20, 2008 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those rallies can be deceptive - they weren't a predictor in NH or Ohio.
I'm also nervous about how many Operation Chaos people have registered to vote Democrat -a big unknown.
Also curious to see how African American leaders have done - whether Nutter et al have managed to cut into the A-A vote for Obama.
April 20, 2008 4:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
What would be more interesting would be to have David Pouffle's numbers. Evidently he and David Axelrod have been right on the money. Let's not forget to add the number of Texans who voted in their caucus, as that number puts his Texas total higher than Hillary's.
April 20, 2008 12:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
For the good of the party this madness must be stopped. She and / or her supporters are now running swiftboat attacks for the RNC.
Give me one good reason Hillary should remain in this race after NC.
We must all stand up and demand she leave after NC.
April 20, 2008 1:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
One good reason: it is impossible to stop a "mad" person.
April 20, 2008 3:38 AM | Reply | Permalink