Casey and PA Catholic Men
My girlfriend grew up an hour outside Pittsburgh, where her parents still live. Her dad, a 60-year-old Orthodox Catholic, retired coal miner, and all around Great Guy, is an Obama supporter. At least, that's what he's told her.
Will Dad vote Obama, or will he get in the voting booth and decide to pull the lever for Hillary? I think a lot of Catholic white men from the Rust Belt are scared to vote for Obama because of his youth, inexperience, and race. I'm not going to tell you how much those factors are weighted, but let's assume they are all factors.
How to win these men? Someone like Casey has to convinve them it's okay to vote for Obama, he'll be better than Hillary or McCain on their issues, he won't make a bnig deal of abortion. Oh yeah, abortion is huge. Maybe Hillary's pro-choice credentials would hurt her if she weren't going up against Obama--perceived as more liberal than she is.
We'll find out in about three weeks, if Hillary's army of Catholic men can be persuaded to switch sides to Obama.
Will Dad vote Obama, or will he get in the voting booth and decide to pull the lever for Hillary? I think a lot of Catholic white men from the Rust Belt are scared to vote for Obama because of his youth, inexperience, and race. I'm not going to tell you how much those factors are weighted, but let's assume they are all factors.
How to win these men? Someone like Casey has to convinve them it's okay to vote for Obama, he'll be better than Hillary or McCain on their issues, he won't make a bnig deal of abortion. Oh yeah, abortion is huge. Maybe Hillary's pro-choice credentials would hurt her if she weren't going up against Obama--perceived as more liberal than she is.
We'll find out in about three weeks, if Hillary's army of Catholic men can be persuaded to switch sides to Obama.
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I greatly appreciate this analysis AND I want to add a thought.
This primary is haunted by two fears.
First, some older white people are afraid of Obama: his race, and maybe also the relative youth, the improbably quick rise to leadership, the Ivy League polish.
Second, millions of other folks, including me, are afraid of that white fear. We're afraid they'll prevent the best candidate from winning. We're afraid they'll accept policies that are bad for all of us rather than accept this candidate.
About OUR fear: It's time to believe in our neighbors, our cousins, and our friends' older relatives. In every primary, with Obama on the ballot, they've shown us that they're better than we feared. That's partly because Obama is Obama, but it's also because they were a bit better all along.
It doesn't mean he'll get all the votes, or even that he'll win Pennsylvania. It just means that he'll get more than I dared hope, because the country itself is greater than I knew.
March 29, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
My girlfriend's father is a great guy, but he's a little old fashioned. He's pretty much the EXACT voter Obama needs. Maybe its because he has chilkdren in the generation that loves Obama--that's apparently what convinced Bopb casey he is viable. We all need to talk to our parents--the Boomers--(I'm 30), and get them to understand. Obama is one of us!
March 29, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
And that would be a victory. If a portion of them are better than we'd hoped. An astute point.
My bigoted 68 year old brother-in-law is an Obama supporter. Even more so after Wright (now THAT was a shocker). "If we had to believe everything the priests said, there's be no one in the Catholic Churches".
He also said, "Well, I never heard Obama say any of those things. And I believe the guy. I don't believe Hillary, McCain is a crook" (he lives in Arizona).
So yes, if my brother-in-law still supports Obama, there's hope. If we don't let our own fears get in the way.
March 29, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think there's another problem with socially conservative white men--the Patriotism factor. Is it sufficiently Patriotically American to vote for Obama? "He sounds muslim, he went to a radical black church, he doesn't like Israel, etc."
Obama needs a concerted effort to portray his candidacy as a historic, Patriotic candidacy, tied to not the race wars of the past, but the chance to take the country in a new direction.
March 29, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was raised Catholic - 12 years in Catholic schools - don't practice, or for that matter even have faith in any faith (it's all bogus to me) - but have a number of friends of various levels of devotion. Those that I associate with, have zero interest in Hillary, not even my 72 year old every-Sunday-Catholic step-mother stomachs Hillary.
Now of course, there is still a fair percentage around here, male and female, Catholic and otherwise, who would NEVER vote Obama or Hillary. I just like to think of them as REALLY BACKWARDS. The abortion thing is - just too much for them. Never mind all the other sins against humanity so cheerfully committed by Rethuglicans.
There's also a relatively small portion that would not vote for a non-white and some - for a woman. I like to think of them as being REALLY NEANDERTHAL.
March 29, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
What does your girlfriend's dad think, now that Jerome Bettis and Franco Harris have endorsed Obama?
March 29, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink