Number Crunching, February 8 edition
Assuming NBCs current estimate of pledged delegates (Obama 861, Clinton 858) is correct, and assuming that Clinton and Obama split all 796 superdelegates 50/50, then . . . were Obama to win exactly 50% of the remaining pledged delegates the total delegate count would be: 2,026 Obama, 1,997 Clinton.
Assuming Open Left’s current estimate of pledged delegates (Obama 896, Clinton 878, with 18 still outstanding) is correct, and assuming that Clinton and Obama split all 796 superdelegates 50/50, then . . . were Obama to win exactly 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, the total delegate count would be: 2,034 Obama, 1,990 Clinton.
The missing 26 delegates are currently pledged to John Edwards. Florida and Michigan are not being taken into account in making these calculations.
Why is it worth considering a scenario which involves a 50/50 split of the supers? This outcome seems hardly likely to me.
February 8, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, the SD probably wouldn't split exactly in half. It's just an assumption to demonstrate how important the SD vote will be if the two continue to tie all the way up to the convention. As long as both candidates can fight each other to a draw, whoever can get at least 1/2 of the SDs gets the nomination.
February 8, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, can u come up with a stupider system than this one? LOL.
February 8, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink