Clinton has to win TX & OH about 2 to 1 or she's still behind.
After being pretty much tied following Super Tuesday, we all know Mr. Obama picked up a decent lead. I've found that given an even split in WI, HI, RI, & VT she will have to get just under 2 to 1 of the pledged delegates, around 65% to get back to where she was right after Super Tuesday.
As I've mentioned before, Super Delegates can change their mind at any time. FL & MI delegates are a risk, the pledged delegates at this point in time are all that matter.
The numbers (from Obama's site. MSNBC says Clinton's campaign's numbers have him winning even more than his):
This last weekend pledged: WA, LA, VI, & NE
vs Texas pledged
Texas: 193
Weekend: 185
Obama 121 (65.41%), Clinton 64 (34.59%)
Obama +57 (30.82%)
Potomac Tuesday pledged: VA, MD, DC
vs Ohio pledged
Ohio: 141
Potomac: 168
Obama 109 (64.88%), Clinton 59 (35.12%)
Obama +50 (29.76%)
Sure there are more delegates in TX then last weekend but there are more than enough to make up for it from DC on Potomac Tuesday vs Ohio to even the TX delegate comparison. Besides, if you add DC to the TX count, it wouldn't change much. Just a point or two off of my Ohio comparison and that point or two added extra on the Texas, thereby making that state harder to reach your tying goal instead of Ohio.
A good and VERY thoughtful page on how Obama stands a chance on losing the popular Texas by a little but winning more delegates.
http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=751
As I've mentioned before, Super Delegates can change their mind at any time. FL & MI delegates are a risk, the pledged delegates at this point in time are all that matter.
The numbers (from Obama's site. MSNBC says Clinton's campaign's numbers have him winning even more than his):
This last weekend pledged: WA, LA, VI, & NE
vs Texas pledged
Texas: 193
Weekend: 185
Obama 121 (65.41%), Clinton 64 (34.59%)
Obama +57 (30.82%)
Potomac Tuesday pledged: VA, MD, DC
vs Ohio pledged
Ohio: 141
Potomac: 168
Obama 109 (64.88%), Clinton 59 (35.12%)
Obama +50 (29.76%)
Sure there are more delegates in TX then last weekend but there are more than enough to make up for it from DC on Potomac Tuesday vs Ohio to even the TX delegate comparison. Besides, if you add DC to the TX count, it wouldn't change much. Just a point or two off of my Ohio comparison and that point or two added extra on the Texas, thereby making that state harder to reach your tying goal instead of Ohio.
A good and VERY thoughtful page on how Obama stands a chance on losing the popular Texas by a little but winning more delegates.
http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=751
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Whoops, I forgot to add that Maine was included in the total for the post-Super Tuesday weekend election.
I fit into the white, college educated male crowd but still lower-middle working class (that's as so-called Clinton demographic).
My dad is Hispanic & born south of the border. He was never around and my white mom was the one that raised me and I've only really been around white people (even though there are 10-20% Hispanics in my Indiana town) by choice so I consider myself TOTAL white.
Maybe I can still join a Latinos for Obama club though :-)
February 14, 2008 7:39 AM | Reply | Permalink