Tom Kludt

Tom Kludt is a reporter for Talking Points Memo based in New York City, covering media and national affairs. Originally from South Dakota, Tom joined TPM as an intern in late-2011 and became a staff member during the 2012 election. He can be reached at tom@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Tom

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and author of the political website "Sabato's Crystal Ball," submitted his final prediction for the 2012 presidential election on Monday.

The verdict? Sabato anticipates a second term for Obama, giving the president the edge in the majority of the swing states and asserting that the incumbent drew an eleventh hour political windfall from Superstorm Sandy:

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.

This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?


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President Barack Obama has reached 50 percent and leads Mitt Romney by 4 points in New Hampshire, according to a poll released Monday, putting the incumbent in a solid position to claim the state's potentially election-clinching four electoral votes.

The latest poll from the University of New Hampshire shows half of likely Granite State voters supporting Obama, while Romney trails with 46 percent. In UNH's poll last week, the two were deadlocked at 48 percent.

UNH conducted its latest poll Nov. 1-4 using live phone interviews with 789 likely New Hampshire voters. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average shows Obama with a 3.5-point lead in New Hampshire, which is leaning toward the president on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.




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President Barack Obama has eclipsed 50 percent and opened up a 6-point margin in the western battleground of Colorado, according to the latest automated survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released Monday.

Obama earns the support of 52 of likely Colorado voters in the poll, while Republican nominee Mitt Romney trails with 46 percent support. Obama led by 4-points in PPP's survey of the Centennial State a week ago.

With President Obama in a position to claim a record high share of Latino voters, a leading research firm said Monday that the incumbent's performance among America's fastest growing voting bloc should put him over the top in swing states and help him secure a second term.

Acording to a report by Latino Decisions, Obama is "poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes to retain the presidency."

Latino Decisions shows Obama earning the support of 73 percent of Latino voters with "consistent vote history or have already voted" — creating big separation from Mitt Romney, who picks up only 24 percent. If Obama reaches such a high-level of support, he would exceed former President Bill Clinton's 72 percent share of the Latino vote in 1996.  Matt Barreto, principal investigator for Latino Decisions, said that could augur well for Obama in a handful of key battlegrounds.

“With 11 weeks of tracking, we are headed towards a record level of Latino votes for a Democratic presidential candidate,” Barreto said. “If Latinos turnout at the high rates we are expecting, they could deliver Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia to Obama.”

The PollTracker Average shows Obama maintaining the wide lead among Latino voters he's held throughout the campaign while also closing in on 70 percent.

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President Barack Obama picks up 50 percent support among likely voters nationwide and leads Mitt Romney by 2 points in Sunday's daily tracking poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling. Romney trailed by 3 points in Saturday's tracking poll and has ticked up a point since then.

PPP conducted the survey on behalf of the progressive group Americans United for Change on Nov. 2-4 using automated interviews with 1,200 likely voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

Obama holds a lead of a little less than a point, according to the PollTracker Average.


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President Barack Obama faces a political climate that's very comparable to what former President George W. Bush was up against in 2004, according to the latest poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal released Sunday evening.

The poll shows Obama with an approval rating of 49 percent, mirroring where Bush stood in the final NBC/WSJ before Election Day eight years ago. Moreover, Obama's narrow lead over Mitt Romney — 48 percent to 47 percent — is identical to Bush's 1-point edge in 2004 over Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). 

Forty-two percent said the country is on the right track in Sunday's poll, as compared to 41 percent who said the same in 2004. 

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President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 2 points in Iowa, according to the latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.

Fifty percent of likely Hawkeye State voters give the nod to Obama — identical to his level of support in PPP's previous poll of Iowa last week. But Romney has ticked up 3 points since then to reach 48 percent and cut the slice the president's lead roughly in half. 

The widely respect and highly anticipated poll from the Des Moines Register on Saturday showed Obama with a 5-point lead in Iowa. His currently lead in the PollTracker Average of Iowa is a little more than 3 points, enough to place the state in Obama's column on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.


PPP conducted its survey Nov. 3-4 using automated interviews with 1,122 likely voters in Iowa. It has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.


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Presidnet Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters nationwide 49 percent to 48 percent in Sunday's release of the tracking poll from ABC News and the Washington Post. The two were locked at 48 percent in Saturday's release.

Sunday's poll is based on results from live interviews conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 3 with 2,069 likely voters. It has a margin of error 2.5 percentage points.

Obama inched ahead by about a point in the PollTracker Average today with the release of a survey from Pew that showed him reaching 50 percent and leading Romney by 3 points. 

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President Barack Obama earns the support of 50 percent of likely New Hampshire voters and leads Mitt Romney by 2 points, according to the latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.

Obama held a comparable lead over Romney in PPP's poll of the Granite State last week, 48 percent to 46 percent.