Yowco8c348ndhwfezgxi

Tom Kludt

Tom Kludt is a News Writer for Talking Points Memo based in New York City. A former research intern and polling fellow for TPM, Tom served as assistant polling editor for TPM Media's PollTracker during the 2012 campaign. Before joining TPM, he worked on political campaigns and wrote for various publications in Minnesota and his native South Dakota. Tom graduated summa cum laude from the University of South Dakota in May of 2010 with a B.A. in Political Science and History. He can be reached at tom@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Tom

Another poll released Thursday shows President Barack Obama leading in Wisconsin.

Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely Wisconsin voters, 52 percent to 45 percent in a new poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling. The 7-point gap is the president's largest lead in Wisconsin since February, according to PPP. It's also a big jump since last week, when PPP showed Obama clinging to a 1-point lead there.

Read More →

A ballot measure to make same-sex marriage legal in Maine earns the support of more than half of voters, a new poll released Thursday shows, but the race appears to be tightening. 

The latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows that 52 percent of likely voters  approve of "Question 1" — an initiated measure that would overturn a 2009 ban and allow the state of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples — while 44 percent are opposed.

While LGBT advocates will be pleased that the measure eclipses 50 percent support, PPP's latest release shows a closer contest than previous polls have indicated.  Polls in the summer showed Question 1 winning by roughly 20 points, and another PPP survey in March showed it up by 15 points.  

“Our experience in polling gay marriage is that if people say they’re undecided it usually means they’re opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, in the poll's release. “Despite the 8 point lead for passage this should be seen as a very close race.”

Maine voters in 2009 overturned a law that legalized same-sex marriage through a statewide referendum. 

Enthusiasm among Democrats nationwide and in 12 key battlegrounds has grown considerably since the beginning of the summer, according to a new poll from Gallup released Thursday.  

The poll shows that 68 percent of Democratic voters nationwide are now either "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about participating in this year's election, up from 49 percent in June.  Republicans have seen a smaller uptick in enthusiasm levels, going from 52 percent who were enthusiastic in June to 62 percent in Thursday's poll.  A poll from Pew Research Center on Wednesday also showed Democrats narrowing the enthusiasm edge claimed by Republicans for much of the campaign.

The story is much the same in a dozen swing states, where 53 percent of Democratic voters were enthusiastic about this year's election in June.  Today, 73 percent of Democrats in those states are enthusiastic about voting, according to Gallup. Republican enthusiasm in the swing states ticked up 9 points since June to 64 percent.

Gallup's swing state sample includes registered voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

In their pitch to the Hispanic community, Republicans have assailed President Barack Obama for failing to pursue immigration reform in his first term.  But a new poll out Thursday shows that a strong majority of Latino voters approve of Obama's handling of immigration.

The latest poll from Fox News shows that 58 percent of likely Latino voters approve of Obama's job performance on immigration, compared with 32 percent who disapprove.  It's a sign that Obama continues to benefit politically from his directive, announced in June, to suspend deportations for some young illegal immigrants.  

In a forum broadcast online by the Spanish-language network Univision on Wednesday, Romney criticized Obama for not delivering a "permanent solution" on immigration.  Obama will participate in a forum with Univision on Thursday.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama leading Romney by 40.3 points among Latinos, a commanding advantage he has claimed throughout the campaign.

 

In a departure from a recent trend, a new poll released Wednesday shows Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) holding a 4-point lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren in the closely watched Massachusetts Senate race.  

The poll, conducted by the University of Massachusetts-Lowell and commissioned by the Boston Herald, shows Brown edging Warren among likely voters, 49 percent to 45 percent — a lead that is within the survey's 5.5 percent margin-of-error. 

A number of polls released in the last week have shown Warren, in a post-convention surge, grabbing the lead from Brown.  The PollTracker Average reflects this trend and currently shows Warren leading by less than 2 points, after Brown held a small lead for much of the summer.

  

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 3 nationwide, a new poll released Thursday shows, with only a tiny sliver of the electorate still up for grabs.

The latest poll from the University of Connecticut and the Hartford Courant shows Obama leading Romney among likely voters, 46 percent to 43 percent.  By large margins, Obama is viewed as the better candidate to represent the middle class and women.  

Forty-four percent also say the president is the more trustworthy candidate, compared with 36 percent who believe that Romney is more trustworthy.  And by a slightly narrower margin, 37 percent to 33 percent, voters believe the Republican nominee has run a more negative campaign than Obama.

The poll also highlights what will likely be the defining struggle between the two campaigns in the final stretch: winning over the small portion of undecided voters.  Only 8 percent of likely voters in Thursday's survey say they have not made up their minds.

The PollTracker Average shows Obama holding on to his post-convention momentum, as he currently leads Romney by 3.9 points.

 

President Barack Obama has opened up a 14-point lead in Wisconsin, according to a new poll.

Mitt Romney's selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan solidified the Badger State as a battleground, but a successful month for Obama and continuing campaign woes for Romney have blunted the GOP's momentum there. The Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday shows Obama leading Romney among likely Wisconsin voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama leading Romney by 6.3 points in Wisconsin, eclipsing the 50 percent threshold in the last month.

Read More →

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 8 points in Michigan, according to a new poll from CNN released Wednesday.

The poll shows Obama earning the support of 52 percent of likely Michigan voters, while Romney trails with 44 percent.  Obama's advantage is built upon a 5-point lead among men and an 11-point lead among women.  

Although the presidential race looked competitive there at times in the summer, Michigan has clearly tipped in Obama's favor over the last month.  The PollTracker Average of Michigan currently shows Obama holding a 6.9-point lead over Romney, who has been trending downward since the end of August.

 

The Republican National Committee on Wednesday responded quickly to a surprising new poll from Marquette University Law School that shows President Barack Obama opening up a 14-point lead in Wisconsin.  Nicole Tieman, the RNC's communications director in Wisconsin, released a statement that seeks to highlight Obama's desperation to retain a state that was once solidly in his column.

Wisconsin is a crucial swing state that the Obama Campaign is clearly worried about losing. The President turned his back on his most loyal supporters during the recall election, has been absent from the state for over 200 days, and has implemented policies that have made Wisconsinites worse off. Now, after seeing the growing Republican momentum and enthusiastic support for Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan’s plan to strengthen Wisconsin’s small business and middle class families, the President is scrabbling to regain the support he’s lost since the 2008 election.  President Obama’s upcoming visit to Milwaukee, paired with ad buys to be released next week show a President desperate to hang on to a state his campaign once thought was safely in their camp. In November, Wisconsin voters will choose a new direction and prove them wrong.

With a strengthened position on the economy, President Barack Obama claims clear leads in two swing states, including in Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan's native Wisconsin, while the race is tight in a western battleground, according to a new slate of polls released Wednesday.

The latest round of polls from Quinnipiac University, CBS News and the New York Times show Obama leading Mitt Romney among likely voters in Wisconsin (51 percent to 45 percent) and in Virginia (50 percent to 46 percent), while the president narrowly edges his GOP challenger in Colorado (48 percent to 47 percent).

Obama's lead in Wisconsin represents a bump for the Democratic ticket from a month ago, when the the previous Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll showed the president hanging on to a 2-point edge among likely voters in the state. Coinciding with Obama's expanded lead in the Badger State is a shift in voters' preference over which candidate is better-suited to preside over the economy. A month ago, 49 percent of Wisconsin voters said Romney would do a better job on the economy, compared with 43 percent who preferred Obama on the issue.

Read More →

TPMLivewire