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Tom Kludt

Tom Kludt is a reporter for Talking Points Memo based in New York City, covering media and national affairs. Originally from South Dakota, Tom joined TPM as an intern in late-2011 and became a staff member during the 2012 election. He can be reached at tom@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Tom

A poll released Monday shows that President Obama has shed much of the star power that electrified college campuses in 2008.

The poll from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) shows Obama leading Mitt Romney 52 percent to 35 percent among people aged 18 to 29 years old who are "extremely likely to vote." (Being "extremely likely to vote" was CIRCLE's likely voter screen.)

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Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by a point in the latest national tracking poll from ABC News and the Washington Post released Tuesday.

The poll shows Romney claiming the support of 49 percent of likely voters nationally, while Obama trails with 48 percent. Obama and Romney were tied in Monday's tracking ABC/WaPo tracking poll, but as the Post's Jon Cohen notes, the latest survey marks "the fifth straight day that a single percentage point (or less) has separated the two candidates."

Romney's lead over Obama is currently less than a point in the PollTracker Average.

 

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are tied for the second consecutive week in the Daily Kos/SEIU Weekly State of the Nation Poll.

The poll, conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling and released on Tuesday, shows Obama and Romney each picking up the support of 49 percent of likely voters nationwide. In last week's Kos/SEIU Poll, both men earned 48 percent support.

Tuesday's poll was conducted Oct. 25-28 using automated phone interviews with 1400 likely voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

Less than a point currently separates Romney from Obama in the PollTracker Average.

 

President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are completely tied in Florida, according to the latest automated poll from SurveyUSA.

The poll shows Obama and Romney each earning the support of 47 percent of likely Sunshine State voters, while the president claims commanding leads among early voters.

Fifty-seven percent of Florida voters who said they have already cast a ballot did so for the president, compared with 42 percent who indicated they have already voted for Romney. Obama also leads by 10 among those who intend to vote early, while Romney holds a 13-point lead among voters who plan to wait for Election Day.

The PollTracker Average currently shows very little separating the two candidates in Florida, which is designated as a toss-up state on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.

 

Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by a mere point nationally, according to a poll from National Public Radio released on Tuesday.

The poll shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters nationwide 49 percent to 48 percent. Obama and Romney are both viewed favorably by 51 percent of voters surveyed, while the president's approval rating is split: 49 percent approve of the job he is doing, compared with 49 percent who disapprove. The poll also shows that 35 percent of voters have either already cast a ballot or intend to vote early.

NPR's poll was conducted Oct. 23-25 using live phone interviews with 1000 likely voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Romney currently holds a minuscule lead over Obama in the PollTracker Average.

 

Even as national polls continue to show an extremely tight presidential race, President Barack Obama's level of support may be sold short by pollsters that do not capture a burgeoning segment of the electorate. That's the upshot of a memo released Monday by the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. 

According to the memo, national polls conducted by live interviews routinely fail to capture a representative sample of cell phone users in the American electorate, while automated pollsters are legally prohibited from calling cell phones. Most live interview pollsters designate roughly 30 percent of their samples for cell phone users, but GQR contends that the actual portion of the electorate could be closer to 40 percent. 

Such a shortcoming, the memo suggests, carries the potential of pegging Obama's nationwide support at a lower level than it is in reality.

From GQR's analysis: 

In the last half of 2011, 32 percent of adults were cell-phone only according the Center for Disease Control that is the official source on these issues; 16 percent were cell phone mostly. But the proportion cell-phone only has jumped about 2.5 points every six months since 2008 – and is probably near 37 percent now. And pay attention to these numbers for the 2011 adult population:


• More than 40 percent of Hispanic adults are cell phone only (43 percent).
• A disproportionate 37 percent of African Americans are cell only.
• Not surprisingly, almost half of those 18 to 24 years are cell only (49 percent), but an astonishing 60 percent of those 25 to 29 years old only use cell phones.

• But it does not stop there: of those 30 to 34 years, 51 percent are cell only.

Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by identical margins in the latest installments of two national daily tracking polls.

Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters nationally 49 percent to 48 percent, marking the second day in a row that the Republican nominee has led the president by a point in PPP's tracking. PPP's tracking survey is conducted on behalf of the progressive group Americans United For Change.

For the third consecutive day, the daily tracking poll from ABC News and the Washington Post also shows Romney picking up the support of 49 percent of likely voters while Obama trails with 48 percent.  

The PollTracker Average currently shows Romney leading Obama by less than a point.

 

President Barack Obama earns the support of more than half of likely Virginia voters and leads Mitt Romney by 4 points in the ultra-competitive battleground, according to a poll from the Washington Post released on Saturday night.

The poll shows Obama leading Romney among likely Commonwealth voters 51 percent to 47 percent. That's narrowly outside of the survey's margin of error of 3.5 percentage points and a tightening since the previous Washington Post poll of Virginia a month ago, which showed the president leading the Republican nominee 52 percent to 44 percent.

But Saturday's poll suggests that Obama has weathered a difficult stretch of the campaign and emerged with the lead in Old Dominion, a state where he had been consistently outpolling Romney during the summer months and through September. The poll indicates that the president has maintained his upper hand over Romney in a key policy area and among an important voting bloc in Virginia.

From the Washington Post's analysis:

Unlike in national polls, Obama still has an edge when Virginia voters are asked who better understands their financial problems, and he has not fallen behind a surging Romney on the question of who would better handle the national economy. Nor has Obama lost significant ground among self-identified independents in Virginia, as he has nationally.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama with a slim lead in Virginia, which is designated as a toss-up state on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.
 

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