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Tom Kludt

Tom Kludt is a News Writer for Talking Points Memo based in New York City. A former research intern and polling fellow for TPM, Tom served as assistant polling editor for TPM Media's PollTracker during the 2012 campaign. Before joining TPM, he worked on political campaigns and wrote for various publications in Minnesota and his native South Dakota. Tom graduated summa cum laude from the University of South Dakota in May of 2010 with a B.A. in Political Science and History. He can be reached at tom@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Tom

Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren has built a 9-point lead over Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) in the closely watched Massachusetts Senate race, a poll released Wednesday shows.

The latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Warren leading Brown among likely Bay State voters 53 percent to 44 percent.  That's Warren's largest lead in PPP's polling and also a 3-point bounce from a week ago.  Last week, PPP showed the Harvard law professor holding a 6-point lead over Brown.  

Equally disconcerting for the Republican incumbent is his declining approval rating.  Massachusetts voters are split when it comes to Brown's job performance in Wednesday's poll, with 46 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving.  In last week's poll, 49 percent approved of Brown's job performance, while 42 percent disapproved.  PPP's latest survey was conducted on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, a group that has endorsed Warren.

The PollTracker Average shows Warren's lead growing to roughly 6 points. 

 

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 3 in Ohio in a poll from SurveyUSA.

The automated poll, conducted Oct. 12-15 on behalf of Columbus-based NBC affiliate WCMH-TV, shows Obama leading Romney among likely Buckeye State voters, 45 percent to 42 percent.  Nine percent said they remain undecided.  Obama's lead over Romney swells among Ohio voters who have already cast their ballots, 57 percent to 38 percent.  The two are tied among those who haven't voted yet.  

Obama led by only a point in SurveyUSA's previous poll of Ohio, conducted the first weekend of October. The PollTracker Average shows the president with a tiny lead there.  

President Barack Obama's once-massive lead in Wisconsin is now virtually nonexistent, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The latest Marquette University Law School poll shows Obama with a negligible lead over Mitt Romney among likely Badger State voters, 49 percent to 48 percent. That's a big dip for Obama since Marquette's previous two polls, both of which were conducted prior to the Oct. 3 debate in Denver. In Marquette's mid-September poll, Obama claimed a 14-point lead in Wisconsin. The president's lead shrunk some by the end of September, but Marquette still showed him up 11.

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A super PAC mailer hitting homes this week for the Indiana Senate race has rankled the very person the candidates are trying to replace.

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), who lost his primary earlier this year to tea party-backed candidate Richard Mourdock, blasted the mailer on Wednesday for claiming he now supports his former opponent. His office released a statement calling the ad "misleading."

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By a 4-point margin, Colorado voters who watched Tuesday night's debate gave the edge to President Barack Obama, a snap poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows.  

Forty-eight percent of those voters surveyed by PPP said Obama won the town hall debate in Hempstead, N.Y., while 44 percent said Mitt Romney emerged on top.  Obama won the debate among Colorado independents by an even wider margin, 58 percent to 36 percent.  

PPP conducted the survey using automated interviews with 438 Colorado voters who watched the debate. 

Forty-six percent of registered voters who tuned in to Tuesday night's town hall debate in Hempstead, N.Y. declared President Barack Obama the winner, according to a snap poll from CNN and ORC International.

The poll shows that 39 percent of voters who watched the second debate said Mitt Romney topped the president.  Obama's 7-point edge over Romney is within the poll's margin of error.

Still, that's a big change from the first presidential debate, after which Romney was universally dubbed the winner.  Obama's lackluster performance in that debate may have lowered the bar for him this time around: 73 percent of voters surveyed in the CNN/ORC poll said the president did better than expected on Tuesday.  

The poll's sample of 457 registered voters was comprised of 33 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of Republicans.  That means the sample included more Republicans than the average of CNN polls conducted during the 2012 cycle. 

Presidential candidates typically spend big money to compete in Pennsylvania. For Mitt Romney, all it took was one standout debate.

The Republican presidential nominee has seen a surge in the polls there since the Oct. 3 debate in Denver, suggesting that Pennsylvania may no longer be a lock for President Obama. Romney's rise comes despite reports showing that his campaign hasn't spent a dime on advertising in the Keystone State and may have dispatched staffers from there to states that looked more competitive before the debate.

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President Obama's current level of support in Gallup's daily tracking survey represents a clear dip among several voting blocs since 2008, the national polling firm reported on Tuesday.  

The chart below compares how Obama stacked up with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the final week of the campaign four years ago with how he fares against Republican nominee Mitt Romney today.  

From Gallup:

In order to compare Obama's support today with 2008, the data in the graph below for both 2008 and 2012 are re-percentaged on the basis of support for the Democratic and Republican candidates only, excluding "no opinion" responses and support for minor third-party candidates. The 2008 results reflect an additional adjustment to align Gallup's final likely voter result with the election outcome.

 

Mitt Romney reaches the 50 percent threshold and leads President Barack Obama by 4 points in the latest Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll released on Tuesday.

The poll, conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP), shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters nationwide, 50 percent to 46 percent.  Romney held a 2-point lead over Obama in last week's Daily Kos/SEIU poll.  

With the addition of Tuesday's Daily Kos/SEIU poll, which was conducted Oct. 12-14, Romney has moved ahead of Obama in the PollTracker Average.

 

Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) leads by 3 points over his Republican challenger, businessman Tom Smith, in a new poll released Tuesday morning.

According to the latest poll from Quinnipiac University, Casey leads Smith among likely Pennsylvania voters, 48 percent to 45 percent.  Casey, who was elected in 2006 by way of a landslide victory over Rick Santorum, held a 6-point lead in a late-September poll released jointly by Quinnipiac, CBS News and the New York Times.  In a July Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll, Casey led by 18 points.  

Smith might be moving up in the polls by riding Mitt Romney's coattails.  Tuesday's poll from Quinnipiac also shows the Republican nominee, who's made inroads both nationally and in various battlegrounds following his successful first debate, trailing President Barack Obama by only 4 points in Pennsylvania.  

The PollTracker Average currently shows Casey leading Smith, 46.5 percent to 41.4 percent. 

 

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