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Tom Kludt

Tom Kludt is a reporter for Talking Points Memo based in New York City, covering media and national affairs. Originally from South Dakota, Tom joined TPM as an intern in late-2011 and became a staff member during the 2012 election. He can be reached at tom@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Tom

Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling returned with its national tracking poll Thursday night to show President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by one point.

The poll shows Obama picking up the support of 49 percent of likely voters nationwide, while Romney earns 48 percent support — a flip since PPP's previously released tracking survey on Monday, which showed the Republican nominee edging the president by a single point.

PPP's tracking poll was suspended this week due to Hurricane Sandy. The latest poll was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1 using automated interviews with 1,200 likely voters across the country. It has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama with a slim lead, but trending slightly upward. 

Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by a single point in North Carolina, according to a poll released Thursday from in-state institution High Point University.

The poll shows Romney picking up the support of 46 percent of Tar Heel State voters, while Obama trails with 45 percent — a flip from High Point's conducted in late-September and early-October that showed the president leading by a point. 

High Point's latest poll was conducted Oct. 22-30 using live phone interviews with 403 North Carolina voters, an oversample from its national survey that was also released Thursday. It has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Romney with a lead of less than 2 points in North Carolina. 

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 3 points nationally, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The latest poll from High Point University shows Obama earning the support of 46 percent of voters nationwide, while Romney trails with 43 percent support.

High Point conducted the poll Oct. 22-30 using live phone interviews with 805 voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of 3.45 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama holding a 2-point edge over Romney. 

Less than a week before Election Day, President Obama holds a solid lead in Iowa while the race in New Hampshire and Wisconsin looks tighter, a poll released Thursday shows.

The latest slate of swing state polls from NBC News, Marist College and the Wall Street Journal shows Obama earning the support of 50 percent of likely Iowa voters. Republican nominee Mitt Romney trails with 44 percent.



That's fairly consistent with the previous two NBC/Marist/WSJ surveys there, conducted in October and September, which showed Obama earning at least 50 percent support and leading Romney by 8 points in each. Iowa, of course, figured prominently in Obama's 2008 presidential bid. After helping him secure a win in the state's first-in-the-nation caucuses in January of that year, Iowans gave Obama a 10-point win there over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the general election.

Four years later, the president appears to face a more daunting challenge. Several polls out of Iowa have shown Obama in a dead heat with Romney, who landed a coveted endorsement on Saturday from the state's premier newspaper, The Des Moines Register. But the Obama campaign is betting that its robust ground game will pay off, and Thursday's poll indicates that it might be paying dividends already. Forty-five percent of Iowa voters surveyed said they have already cast a ballot or intend to do so before Election Day. Obama leads among those voters 62 percent to 35 percent.

The PollTracker Average shows Obama opening up a lead in Iowa and closing in on the 50 percent mark.



In contrast to Wednesday's poll from Marquette University Law School, the NBC/Marist/WSJ survey shows a competitive race shaping up in Wisconsin. The president leads narrowly among likely Badger State voters 49 percent to 46 percent, a dip since the previous NBC/Marist/WSJ poll in October that showed him above 50 percent and leading Romney by 6 points. Meanwhile, the latest Marquette poll had Obama up by 8.

Obama has held a steady lead in Wisconsin, according to the PollTracker Average, which currently shows him up by 4 there.



In New Hampshire, Obama led Romney by 8 points in the September NBC/Marist/WSJ poll, but today the president's edge in the Granite State is down to 2 points. New Hampshire represents advantageous turf for Romney, who owns a home there and served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts, and his relatively solid personal popularity there reflects that familiarity.

Nearly half of likely New Hampshire voters, 49 percent, have a favorable view of Romney while 46 percent have an unfavorable view. That's virtually identical to Obama's own favorability rating there, and much stronger showing for Romney than in the other two states surveyed. Romney is viewed favorably by only 43 percent of Iowa voters and unfavorably by 49 percent. In Wisconsin, voters are split on the Republican nominee: 47 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while 47 percent view him unfavorably. Obama, conversely, is viewed favorably by at least 50 percent of voters in all three states.

And while voters in Iowa and Wisconsin are evenly divided on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, New Hampshire voters gave Romney a slight 3-point edge on the question. A majority of voters in all three states said Obama would do a better job overseeing foreign policy.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama with a little more than a 3-point lead in New Hampshire.

The NBC/Marist/WSJ polls were conducted Oct. 28-30 using live phone interviews with 1,142 likely voters in Iowa (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.9 percentage points), 1,013 likely voters in New Hampshire (plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 1,065 likely voters in Wisconsin (plus-minus 3.0 percentage points).

Wisconsin's hyper-competitive U.S. Senate race looks like it will come down to the wire, according to a poll released Thursday.

The latest poll from NBC News, Marist College and the Wall Street Journal shows Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) barely edging former Republican governor Tommy Thompson 48 percent to 47 percent. Baldwin held a slightly larger 4-point lead in the previous NBC/Marist/WSJ poll in mid-October.

The PollTracker Average shows Thompson closing in on Baldwin, who built up a sizable lead in September.

 

Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY), a tea party-backed candidate swept into office by the GOP wave of 2010, is a strong favorite to secure re-election in his Staten Island district, according to a poll released Thursday.

The latest poll from Siena Research Institute shows Grimm with a big lead over Democratic challenger Mark Murphy 52 percent to 34 percent. It's the latest indication that Grimm, the subject of a few federal investigations since he entered the House, will likely overcome what's been a rocky first term in office. The freshman representative led by 10 points in Siena's poll in September.

Siena conducted its latest poll Oct. 27-28 using live phone interviews with 627 likely voters in New York's 11th Congressional District. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

 

Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 49 percent to 47 percent in Thursday's edition of Republican-leaning Rasmussen's national tracking poll. It's the fourth consecutive day that Rasmussen has shown the GOP nominee up by such a margin.

The latest tracking poll was conducted Oct. 29-31 using automated interviews with 1,500 likely voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama leading by a little more than a point.

 

Reaching the 50 percent mark, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely Nevada voters in a poll released Thursday.

The poll from SurveyUSA, conducted on behalf of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow, shows Obama outpacing Romney in the Silver State 50 percent to 46 percent. It amounts to growth in support for Obama in a state where he has led consistently throughout the cycle. In mid-October, SurveyUSA showed Obama with a 3-point lead while falling two points shy of 50 percent.

The PollTracker Average reflects Obama's steady edge in Nevada, a state he carried by 12 points in 2008 and what has been one of his strongest battlegrounds in 2012. 

The final presidential race is tied nationally, according to a poll from Fox News released Wednesday night.

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each earn the support of 46 percent of likely voters nationwide, a slight change from the previous Fox poll that was conducted shortly after the first presidential debate on Oct. 3.  That poll showed Romney edging Obama by a point.

From Fox's analysis:

Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent).  That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October.  

There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent.  

The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30.  

Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.

The latest poll was conducted Oct. 28-30 using live phone interviews with 1,182 likely voters across the country. Fox noted that interviews with respondents in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were conducted before Monday evening. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Obama claims a lead of a little more than a point in the PollTracker Average. 

After watching his double-digit leads in Wisconsin vanish following the first debate earlier this month, President Barack Obama has re-asserted himself as the favorite in the Badger State, a poll released Wednesday shows.

The latest Marquette University Law School Poll shows Obama crossing the 50 percent threshold to open up an 8-point lead over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, 51 percent to 43 percent. It caps what has been a roller coaster month-and-a-half for the president in Marquette's polling.

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