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Tom Kludt

Tom Kludt is a reporter for Talking Points Memo based in New York City, covering media and national affairs. Originally from South Dakota, Tom joined TPM as an intern in late-2011 and became a staff member during the 2012 election. He can be reached at tom@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Tom

The race in New York's 24th Congressional District looks like it might be one of the most competitive House races in the country, a new poll out Saturday suggets.

According to the latest survey from Siena Research Institute, freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-NY) and her Democratic challenger Dan Maffei each earn the support of 44 percent of likely voters in the central New York district.

Powered by tea party support and endorsements from Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, Buerkle ousted then-incumbent Maffei two years ago in New York's old 25th District. But Saturday's poll indicates voters' familiarity with the two candidates has done them little favors. At least 50 percent of voters surveyed have an unfavorable opinion of both Buerkle and Maffei, who were locked at 43 percent in Siena's early-September poll.

Siena conducted its poll Oct. 31-Nov. 2 using live phone interviews with 670 likely voters in the 24th District. It has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average likewise shows a close race, with Maffei leading by a razor-thin margin.

 

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in two states that represent perhaps the biggest electoral prizes, according to a pair of new polls released early Saturday morning.

The latest polls from NBC News, Marist College and the Wall Street Journal show Obama holding a comfortable 6-point advantage in Ohio and a slimmer 2-point edge in Florida. 

Obama continues to look like the favorite to bag Ohio's coveted 18 electoral votes, earning the support of 51 percent of likely Buckeye State voters to Romney's 45 percent. Meanwhile, the president claims the support of of 49 percent of likely Florida voters, while the Republican nominee trails with 47 percent support.

The president's margins in each state largely comport with the results of the previous NBC/Marist/WSJ polls of Ohio and Florida a month ago. In early-October, Obama also led Romney in Ohio 51 percent to 45 percent, while the president's lead in Florida has ticked up a point since last month.

The latest NBC/Marist/WSJ polls were conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 1 using live phone interviews with 971 likely Ohio voters and 1,545 likely Florida voters. Ohio's sample has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, while Florida's sample has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average shows Obama moving ahead by 2.5 points in Ohio, as Romney continues to hold a lead of a little more than a point in Florida. Ohio is currently marked in the "lean Obama" category on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard, while Florida is designated as a toss-up state.

 

Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by 6 points in Florida, according to a new poll from Mason-Dixon released Friday night.

The poll, conducted on behalf of several Florida-based news organizations, shows Romney earning the support of 51 percent of likely Sunshine State voters. Obama trails with 45 percent support.

Brad Coker, director of Mason-Dixon, told the Miami Herald that he's bullish on the Republican nominee's prospects there.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” Coker said. “Will it be fivepoints? Maybe. Will it be three points? Possibly. I don’t think it’s going to be a recount … I don’t think we’re going to have a recount-race here.”

Mason-Dixon conducted its poll Oct. 30-Nov. 1 using live phone interviews with 800 likely Florida voters. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
 
The PollTracker Average currently shows Romney leading Obama by nearly 2.5 points in Florida, which is leaning toward the former Massachusetts governor on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.
 
 

It turns out it's hard for pollsters to capture the opinions of America's fastest growing minority group. So hard, according to one researcher in the field, that many polling outfits have misfired in their attempts to survey Latino voters in this year's election.

Matt Barreto, founding principal at the research firm Latino Decisions and professor at the University of Washington, said on Thursday that his work has shown pollsters are often sloppy when they field a Latino sample.

Read More →

Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama by a point in Friday's tracking poll from ABC News and the Washington Post.

The poll shows Romney with the support of 49 percent of likely voters nationwide, while Obama trails with 48 percent — a flip from Thursday's tracking poll.

ABC/WaPo's latest survey was conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1 using live phone interviews with 1,535 likely voters across the country. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Obama currently leads Romney by less than a half-point, according to the PollTracker Average.

President Barack Obama earns the support of half of likely voters and leads Mitt Romney by 3 points in Ohio, according to the latest poll from CNN out Friday afternoon.

The poll shows 50 percent of likely Buckeye State voters giving the nod to Obama, while 47 percent support Romney. Obama's 3-point edge amounts to a modest tightening since CNN's late-October survey of Ohio, which showed the president leading by 4. The Republican nominee has ticked up a point since that poll.

CNN's latest survey was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1 using live phone interviews with 796 likely Ohio voters. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Obama leads by just a shade less than 2 points in Ohio, according to the PollTracker Average.

 

President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 2 points in ultra competitive battleground of Colorado, according to a new poll released Friday.

The automated poll from Survey USA, conducted on behalf of the Denver Post, shows Obama earning the support of 47 percent of likely Colorado voters. Romney trails with 45 percent support.

The results of Friday's poll are a reverse from the previous SurveyUSA/Denver Post release in early-October, which showed Romney ahead by a point.

SurveyUSA conducted the latest poll Oct. 28-31 using automated interviews with 695 likely Colorado voters. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

The PollTracker Average shows the president with a comparable 2-point edge in Colorado, where he has been trending up in recent weeks. Colorado is currently in the "leans Obama" category on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.

 

President Barack Obama earns the support of half of likely Colorado voters and leads Mitt Romney by 4 points there, according to a new automated survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.

The poll shows Obama earning the support of 50 percent of Centennial State voters, while Romney trails with 46 percent. It's little change from PPP's Colroado survey last week, which showed the president crossing the 50 percent mark and leading Romney by 4 points.

PPP conducted the latest poll Oct. 31-Nov. 1 using automated interviews with 821 likely Colorado voters. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. The poll was commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters, a group that has endorsed Obama.

Obama has inched ahead of Romney by a little more than 2 points in Colorado, according to the PollTracker Average. 

Republican Mia Love leads Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT) by 12 points in Utah's 4th Congressional District, according to a poll released Friday.

The latest poll from Mason-Dixon, conducted on behalf of The Salt Lake Tribune, shows Love earning the support of 52 percent of likely voters in the district. Matheson, a six-term incumbent and the only Democrat in Utah's Congressional delegation, trails with 40 percent support.

Love has been backed heavily by party leaders and she was given a prominent speaking slot at the Republican National Convention in August. Her candidacy as also won her national attention. If elected next week, Love will become the first black Republican woman in Congress.

The PollTracker Average currently shows Love ahead of Matheson by a little less than 6 points.

 

Republican Richard Mourdock faces a double-digit deficit in Indiana's U.S. Senate race, according to a poll released Friday morning. 

The latest poll released jointly by local blog Howey Politics Indiana and in-state institution DePauw University shows Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) opening up a wide lead over Mourdock, the state treasurer and tea party champion who ousted Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) in a primary last spring. Donnelly earns the support of 47 percent of Hoosier State voters, while Mourdock trails with 36 percent.

A bipartisan team of pollsters conducted the survey Oct. 28-30, entirely after the final debate of the race wherein Mourdock made controversial remarks regarding rape and abortion. The poll is based on live phone interviews with 800 likely Indiana voters. Its margin of error has not yet been disclosed.

Donnelly holds a 2-point edge over Mourdock in the PollTracker Average.

 

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