I don’t want to be hyperbolic. I not only believe generally but think we have seen evidence of the resilience of our system and core institutions over recent months. But we can see a number of developments, building over recent weeks and accelerating in recent days, aimed at ending the Russia investigations.
I noted a short time ago that there’s increasing evidence and concern that House Republicans are moving quickly to shut down the House-side probes. That is probably in response to demands from the President, though it doesn’t seem they need much persuading. House Republicans on the Judiciary Committee are pushing hard to fire FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. Given that the FBI has a new Director and that McCabe was someone who might have been a logical candidate to become the new Director, it’s not surprising that he’d be replaced eventually with a new person. But these public demands from Trump defenders in the House look more like the purge of the FBI President Trump and his top defenders have been demanding.
Mike Flynn is now a cooperating witness for Bob Mueller. Mueller is expanding his investigation into President Trump’s banking history at Deutsche Bank, the data operation at Cambridge Analytica. We just learned yesterday about yet another email – this time directly to Trump’s personal assistant – from Rob Goldstone, offering to set up a meeting with Vladimir Putin. More and more is emerging and we have lots of indications that President Trump’s anger and desire to shut down the investigations is growing. The non-committal response to a question this morning about whether he would pardon Mike Flynn was one of many signs of that. That is Trump trying to show that he, not Bob Mueller or anyone else, has the power.
There’s one more piece of the puzzle. The President’s lawyer charged with managing interactions with the Mueller investigation – Ty Cobb – has been telling the President and White House staff for months that the Mueller probe is winding down and is likely to finish by the close of 2017 with Mueller issuing a report exonerating the President. I’ve yet to hear or read any legal observer who thought that made sense. But it was apparently believed by many or some in the White House. Most importantly, President Trump apparently believed or believes it. It may be the reason Trump has been relatively calm in respect to the probe, at least not seeking to fire Robert Mueller. Some think, not implausibly, that this is Cobb’s motivation, protecting his client from his most self-destructive impulses with a benign deception. Maybe Cobb has also deceived himself.
But it is the evening of December 15th. At some point, no matter how much you want to believe something, the evidence contradicting your belief can grow so great that your edifice of confidence crumbles. It can happen rapidly. Even in the Trumpian world of fictive realities, the nonsensical nature of Cobb’s assurances must be becoming clear. That dam of realization seems to have given way or is in the process of breaking. That’s perilous.
For clarity, I don’t think Mueller will be fired. But I believe the groundwork is being laid to do so. I believe there’s an effort afoot to try. It is also entirely possible Trump will fire Mueller, especially if he can get a clean bill of health from one of the House committees which he can brandish as a justification. That will trigger a grave crisis. Keep an eye on the escalating attacks on Mueller, the increasing drive to close down the congressional investigations.
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