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Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

TPM Reader JR has a structural take on how we got to the Bernie-Hillary contest ...

I’m a little late to the party on the Sanders comments, but I think one additional perspective on the current state of affairs is missing: Sanders’ entire campaign was made possible by the fact that Hillary essentially cleared the playing field for him prior to the primary season getting started. O’Malley was never a serious contender, which left the entire “not-Hillary” space to Sanders. Given all of the Democrats out there that have misgivings about her (you included), the default vehicle for channeling their disenchantment was to feel the Bern.

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I'm not sure if a bracket could pull together and structure the requisite information. Perhaps it would be a betting market. But it will be of great interest over the next several months to see how long it takes various NeverTrump and EventuallyTrump Republicans to come forward and fully embrace Trump.

For most, I suspect, it won't take long. But when?

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One of the highlights of this tumultuous night was when Ted Cruz thanked Carly Fiorina for being "an incredible, phenomenal running mate." Of course, Fiorina was never Cruz's running mate. Indeed, she'd only been his fake running mate for less than a week. The moment captured an enduring element of the Republican primary cycle. Donald Trump may have few redeeming skills. But he is a master of the 'dominance politics' of destruction. He not only beats opponents. He lures them into escalating spasms of indignity before delivering the death blow.

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So there you have it: Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican party. All the 'nevers', all the outrages, all the everything. All past. It is an amazing night, just the sheer improbability of it all.

I've been saying for months that I thought Trump was all but unstoppable and that the GOP establishment was fooling itself to think they could rob Trump of the nomination in Cleveland. But I will be the first to say that when Trump got in last June it never remotely occurred to me that he could be the Republican nominee. But I will say this: It shouldn't surprise us at all that this happened. The only surprise is that Donald Trump was the one to do it.

As I argued two months ago, Trump's dominance is the product of a slow build up of hate and nonsense debt within the Republican party. At some point it had to come due. And now it has.

Confirmed by numerous news outlets. Even though he's still talking, Ted Cruz is apparently dropping out after a huge Trump win.

The vote counters I watch most closely are now saying that it's looking like Sanders can pull out a win here. The big issue seems to be that the early returns were heavily the early vote. But the vote today seems to have tilted heavily in Sanders direction. A lot of vote remains out there. But it doesn't seem like there's enough for Clinton to pull this out.

Still too early to say who wins. But Sanders seems more likely.

Of course, in delegate terms, it will be largely a draw. So leaves Sanders far behind. But it will drag this out longer.

So what's up with the Sanders-Clinton fight in Indiana? The first round of exits - notoriously wrong - showed Sanders with a 12 point margin. But the initial results pointed to a solid Clinton win. Since then Sanders is doing pretty well in some key areas. He's keeping it very close in Marion County (Indianapolis) where Clinton should run up pretty solid numbers. And statewide, with about 20% of precincts reporting it's the thinnest possible lead for Sanders.

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