Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

The TPM Electoral Scoreboard moves to Clinton 318, Trump 164, as North Carolina moves from the Trump column to Toss-up. Meanwhile, a new poll from NBC/SurveyMonkey pushes the PollTracker Avg to Clinton 49.6%, Trump 39.3%, a spread of 10.3 points, Clinton's highest margin of the election season.

Quote of the day: "We beat a lot of people in the primaries and now we have one person left. And we're actually doing pretty well there." - Donald Trump.

It caused a bit of a stir when Georgia went into the Toss-Up column in the TPM Electoral Scoreboard. Then it moved to Clinton. And now Hillary Clinton is up 6 points in Georgia in the PollTracker Average. The average is heavily driven by three polls from August which are Clinton +7, Clinton +4 and tie. What's worth remembering is that while Georgia has been a reliably red state for a generation, the margins haven't been in the blowout territory like other red states. McCain won the state by 5.2 points in 2008 and Romney won by 7.8 points in 2012. When one candidate is up by a substantial margin, as Clinton is at least for the moment, you're going to see that across the map. But still: up by 6 points in Georgia. What's up with that?

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For the first time since 1940, the Tulsa World declines to endorse the Republican nominee for President: "From Day One, the Trump campaign has brought out the worst of America, not the greatness that he promises."

The conventional wisdom is that you don't really know the impact of the conventions until everything settles out a week or two after the second convention. We're coming up on that threshold. And as you can see from the trend chart going back to July 1st, this is no longer just a bounce.

At the risk of stating the obvious, a bounce is something that goes up and then comes down, at least part of the way back down. But Clinton's trend line continues to rise.

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If you haven't already, take a look at the series The New York Times is running on corporate capture of DC's think tank's. I flag it not only because it's an important, very deep-dive look at an important topic but also because it was a topic I focused a great deal of time on before I started and then just after I started TPM when I was still a full-time reporter. My interest was first piqued by what a close friend of mind called 'deep lobbying.'

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As of this morning, The TPM Electoral Scoreboard currently stands at Clinton 318, Trump 179 and 41 electoral votes currently in the Toss-Up column. Notably, that 318 is without Ohio or Iowa which both haven't been polled in a few weeks.

The PollTracker Avg puts the popular vote at Clinton 46.9% to Trump's 40%.

From this morning's speech: "Our roads and bridges fell into disrepair, yet we found the money to resettle millions of refugees at taxpayer expense."

With all the tumult of the last few weeks, I'm trying to take some bit of a break this weekend to keep charged for the next three months. But here's one question I'm pondering and which I haven't seen a good answer to. When Paul Ryan and John McCain started criticizing Trump over the Khan family affair, he tried to overawe them with the threat of not endorsing them in their primaries. I doubt either particularly cared for themselves. But for the party brass that was clearly a bridge too far. Would he go to war with every member of Congress who didn't toe the line? The bigger threat was his gratuitous insults to Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, who's in the fight of her political life and looks increasingly likely to lose.

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This is not really a message or an argument that I imagine will be terribly relevant to a lot of TPM Readers. But I think it's an important one to state. We're now seeing a trickle of high profile Republicans or Republican elected officials announcing that they will not vote for Donald Trump. So far though I'm only aware of one Republican member of Congress or Governor who says they are voting for Hillary Clinton - Rep. Richard Hanna (R-NY).

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