Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

I'm a pretty healthy guy. But I had a bad sinus headache this afternoon and went to rest in the TPM nap room. I left with boring speakers droning on the platform in Cleveland. I come back and all hell's broken loose. If you're just tuning in, anti-Trump delegates seemed to have enough signatures to force a roll call vote on the convention rules. This is miles aways from denying Trump the nomination. But it would be an embarrassing demonstration of anti-Trump strength and the kind of disruption no convention planner ever wants. (You can see video of chanting on the floor which TPM's Tierney Sneed took on the floor as it was all happening.)

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We're at the start of the first of two national party nominating conventions which will dominate the second half of July. We're also just coming off Donald Trump's choice of Mike Pence as his running mate and only days away from Hillary Clinton's choice. All of which means we're in a period both of intense media focus on the campaign, a series of key decisions from the nominees and what is often a period of substantial flux and instability in the poll numbers. Conventional wisdom suggests we won't know how all of this shakes out until the first week or two of August. With that said, it's a good time to look at the polls and see what they're telling us.

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We now have confirmation that three police officers have died as the result of gunshot wounds in this morning's shooting in Baton Rouge; another three were wounded, in at least one case very seriously.

We are also getting the first eyewitness reports suggesting that the shooting began before at a convenience store before police arrived on the scene. By implication this would suggest that an intentional ambush of police officers - the assumption must have understandably jumped to - may not be correct. Eyewitness reports, particularly in the heat of the moment and in response to incidents involving traumatic violence, are notoriously untrustworthy. However, these new reports emphasize that we do not know precisely what happened in Baton Rouge this morning or why. What we do know is that three police officers are dead and apparently on assailant.

If you are just joining us, we are still getting early reports of what appears to have been another ambush of police officers, this time in Baton Rouge, the city already racked by the police killing of Alton Sterling earlier this month. It is important not that while suspicions as to motive are obvious. There is as yet no evidence as to motive or identity of shooters. Latest reports have three officers dead, more wounded and what initial reports identify as a single assailant with an assault rifle.

More updates shortly.

Late Update: 12:27 PM ET: AP reports a single assailant also dead.

Later Update: 12:31 PM ET: There are conflicting reports on the number of assailants involved in the ambush.

Michael Folk, a Republican state representative in West Virginia, has called for presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to be executed over her use of a private email server during her tenure as Secretary of State.

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I've been praised in recent months for having some handle on the Trump phenomenon. The truth is a little different. Early on I realized that when it came to Trump if I figured out the stupidest possible scenario that could be reconciled with the available facts and went with it, that almost always turned out to be right. The stupider, the righter. So with this rule of thumb in hand, as the empiricist my Dad taught me to be, I just kept following that model and it kept working. Last night there was chatter - half tongue-in-cheek but not totally - about whether Trump's decision to postpone his vice presidential announcement wasn't simply some gambit to gain advantage from the massacre in Nice but an effort to play for time and possibly back out of his apparent decision to place Mike Pence on the ticket. That couldn't possibly be true. Not really. But it's Trump. So who knows?

Now of course we find out early this afternoon that it was true. Because of course it was.

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Quite a lot has transpired over the last four hours since my last post. I was away from the computer and updating only on twitter. It now seems clear the coup against the Erdogan government has failed or is clearly on the road to failure. A few questions occur to me.

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The Turkey experts I trust tell me they think that at least for now, the Turkish military has pulled this off and is in control. Obviously coups can unravel based on a fluid political backdrop. But at the risk of sounding churlish, when it comes to coups, when you're Facetiming, you're losing ...