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Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

Looks like we're about to hear some new revelations on what Republicans were up to in Florida after the election. This time centering on the question of military absentee ballots. It'll be interesting to see whether the revealer has really got the goods on this one, or no.

More on this soon.

The Washington Post says George W. Bush is hawking an alternative statistical analysis of his tax plan which says that only 22% of his tax cut will go to the top 1% of earners as opposed to the 43% number which Democrats have been citing. As the Post notes, much of the difference is due to the fact that Bush's new analysis doesn't figure in the repeal of the estate tax (also known as the 'death tax' to many Republican whackos) or a number of other cuts which only kick in after 2006. And of course pretty much all of the estate tax repeal benefits go to the very wealthy.

Dishonest numbers aside though, this is a very positive development for opponents of Bush's plan. Very positive. Why? Simple. Because this is playing ball entirely on the Democrats' turf. As any Republican strategist will tell you, Republicans don't win tax debates with arguments over distributional equity. A sign of how they're getting dragged off message is that Bush's crew is getting into almost daily dust-ups with Talking Points' friends at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities and Citizens for Tax Justice.

Second of all, to be frank, Bush's numbers are completely bogus. And I don't just mean the standard sense in which everyone's numbers are a bit different. I mean he's not including the estate tax! What's that about? This isn't fuzzy math. It's bull$&%@ math. And very easily exposed as such.

Therefore, not only is Bush starting to fight this out on unfriendly territory, he's also starting the fight with a batch of numbers that are transparently bogus. So before we even get to the argument over equity we're going to have a sub-argument about why Bush is trying to pass off these phony numbers.

P.S. If you're not bored to tears by this tax stuff, check out this new fact sheet from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities which notes how the numbers Bush himself is relying on are now showing that the true cost of the plan is roughly $2 trillion.

Hey, look at this groovy new feature just developed by the folks over at the Talking Points IT department.

In the long history of TPM we've often gotten complaints - well, that puts too hard an edge on it, let's say longing queries - about readers' inability to point friends to a particular post on the site. You've actually always been able to do so. But it's been complicated for a number of reasons.

Well, no more. See that little 'link' link up there by the date? Just click on that and it will take you to the precise URL for that particular post. Simple as that. And that link will stay current in the TPM archives permanently.

(There's no super-flashy graphical gizmo connected with this new feature since the calling card of TPM is elegant design minimalism.)

I've also gotten a number of questions from readers about whether TPM is going to start taking donations for the upkeep of the site like AndrewSullivan.com and Kausfiles are doing. Answer? I'm not sure. That's really not what I started this site for. But, hey, man does not live by buzz alone! So I'm thinking about it.

Haven't the Republicans in the House potentially opened up a big tactical opportunity for Democrats? The Bush tax bill is heavily tilted toward tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans. But it does include meaningful cuts for many middle-income families. But the great proportion of those cuts aren't related to drops in marginal rates. They're tied to the expansion of the child tax credit from $500 to $1000.

The version of the tax bill currently racing through the House doesn't include that; and that makes the tax cut for middle-income families almost laughably paltry.

First, some rather devastating news which will hopefully help you, the Talking Points reader, avoid future heartbreak.

It turns out that if you fully submerge your Palm V handheld computer in water it will no longer work. (Was Talking Points foolish enough to intentionally conduct such an experiment? Well, no. Not exactly. But let's just say: now I know.)

Now to other news of the day.

A few days back, you may remember, we were talking about the case of Lewis Libby, Dick Cheney's Chief of Staff, and his level of involvement in the Marc Rich case. I even got in an argument about it with Mickey Kaus.

At the time I didn't take a definite stand on whether Clinton was correct when he said that "the case for the pardons was reviewed and advocated" by Libby. I only argued that Libby's involvement in Rich's pardon efforts seemed to have been common knowledge -- even if possibly incorrect common knowledge -- and thus one could hardly say that Clinton was guilty of an "astonishing lie" (Mickey's phrase) when he was was repeating what I took to be common knowledge. Follow all that?

Well, today's New York Times adds some new information that makes it look like Clinton was pretty close to the mark. It turns out that a couple days after Clinton pardoned Marc Rich, Libby called him up to congratulate him on his good fortune. More importantly ...

A lawyer familiar with Mr. Libby's efforts said he had tried to persuade federal prosecutors in New York to drop the 1983 indictment against Mr. Rich. This lawyer and others familiar with Mr. Libby's involvement said that shortly after Mr. Quinn was hired by Mr. Rich, he met with Mr. Libby to be briefed on the merits of Mr. Rich's case.
So let's unpack this. Libby left Rich's employ "last spring," according to the Times. After Quinn came on board he met with Libby and Libby brought him up to speed on the case. Now, if I'm not mistaken, we all assume that there was only one reason Marc Rich hired Jack Quinn -- to help him get a pardon from Quinn's bud Bill Clinton, right?

So when Quinn met with Libby "to be briefed on the merits of Mr. Rich's case," what did they talk about? About Quinn's efforts to get Rich pardoned, of course.

Now I'll admit I've made a number of inferences here. But I don't think you've got to go too far out on a limb to make them.

And let's go back to what our friend Ari Fleischer said about Lewis' involvement in the Rich case. "While Mr. Libby was involved in the original case concerning Mr. Rich," Fleischer told the Times on February 18th, "he was in no way, shape, manner or form involved in the pardon."

Now the above-mentioned "lawyer familiar with Mr. Libby's efforts" is pretty clearly someone in Libby's camp. So there may well be more we don't know. But even from what we have here from the Times I think we can pretty clearly say that Ari Fleischer LIED (or at a minimum unintentionally repeated someone else's lie).

In fact, you might even call it an astonishing lie.

P.S. Why would someone in Libby's camp spill the beans on him? Easy. Libby has to testify tomorrow before the Burton committee so he's trying to get the bad info out ahead of time.

P.P.S. Special thanks to special Talking Points correspondent Mr. Z for pointing out the new Libby info.

P.P.P.S. Wouldn't it be kinda devastating for a slick, young political reporter like Talking Points to lose all the notes and phone numbers and extra-double-secret contact information he has on his palm-top? You could say that.

First, some rather devastating news which will hopefully help you, the Talking Points reader, avoid future heartbreak.

It turns out that if you fully submerge your Palm V handheld computer in water it will no longer work. (Was Talking Points foolish enough to intentionally conduct such an experiment? Well, no. Not exactly. But let's just say: now I know.)

Now to other news of the day.

A few days back, you may remember, we were talking about the case of Lewis Libby, Dick Cheney's Chief of Staff, and his level of involvement in the Marc Rich case. I even got in an argument about it with Mickey Kaus.

At the time I didn't take a definite stand on whether Clinton was correct when he said that "the case for the pardons was reviewed and advocated" by Libby. I only argued that Libby's involvement in Rich's pardon efforts seemed to have been common knowledge -- even if possibly incorrect common knowledge -- and thus one could hardly say that Clinton was guilty of an "astonishing lie" (Mickey's phrase) when he was was repeating what I took to be common knowledge. Follow all that?

Well, today's New York Times adds some new information that makes it look like Clinton was pretty close to the mark. It turns out that a couple days after Clinton pardoned Marc Rich, Libby called him up to congratulate him on his good fortune. More importantly ...

A lawyer familiar with Mr. Libby's efforts said he had tried to persuade federal prosecutors in New York to drop the 1983 indictment against Mr. Rich. This lawyer and others familiar with Mr. Libby's involvement said that shortly after Mr. Quinn was hired by Mr. Rich, he met with Mr. Libby to be briefed on the merits of Mr. Rich's case.
So let's unpack this. Libby left Rich's employ "last spring," according to the Times. After Quinn came on board he met with Libby and Libby brought him up to speed on the case. Now, if I'm not mistaken, we all assume that there was only one reason Marc Rich hired Jack Quinn -- to help him get a pardon from Quinn's bud Bill Clinton, right?

So when Quinn met with Libby "to be briefed on the merits of Mr. Rich's case," what did they talk about? About Quinn's efforts to get Rich pardoned, of course.

Now I'll admit I've made a number of inferences here. But I don't think you've got to go too far out on a limb to make them.

And let's go back to what our friend Ari Fleischer said about Lewis' involvement in the Rich case. "While Mr. Libby was involved in the original case concerning Mr. Rich," Fleischer told the Times on February 18th, "he was in no way, shape, manner or form involved in the pardon."

Now the above-mentioned "lawyer familiar with Mr. Libby's efforts" is pretty clearly someone in Libby's camp. So there may well be more we don't know. But even from what we have here from the Times I think we can pretty clearly say that Ari Fleischer LIED (or at a minimum unintentionally repeated someone else's lie).

In fact, you might even call it an astonishing lie.

P.S. Why would someone in Libby's camp spill the beans on him? Easy. Libby has to testify tomorrow before the Burton committee so he's trying to get the bad info out ahead of time.

P.P.S. Special thanks to special Talking Points correspondent Mr. Z for passing on the new Libby info.

P.P.P.S. Wouldn't it be kinda devastating for a slick, young political reporter like Talking Points to lose all the notes and phone numbers and extra-double-secret contact information he has on his palm-top? You could say that.

We'll say more momentarily about the rest of the president's speech.

But what was the deal with Justice Stephen Breyer being the only member of the Supreme Court to show up for the speech? They had conflicting engagements? They didn't hear about it in time? They didn't know they were invited?

Please. Something weird was going on there. I can't do any more than speculate. And I'm not saying there was anything sinister. But could it somehow be related to the on-going in-house rancor over Bush v. Gore?

And as long as we're discussing the Supreme Court and Bush v. Gore, here's something else worth noting.

You may have heard that Justice Scalia recently gave a speech at Princeton University in which he set forth his constitutional jurisprudence and charged that those who embrace the idea of a living constitution were "impoverishing democracy."

What got less attention were Scalia's near-comic attempts to bar almost any form of public scrutiny of his presentation. Scalia gave his speech at a conference about James Madison; and the conference was televised by C-SPAN. But when Scalia was presented with the standard release form given to all speakers who speak at the University, he refused to give permission for his remarks to be broadcast. So when it came time for Scalia to speak, the C-Span folks had to pack up and head out.

In fact, Scalia refused even to give permission for his speech to be broadcast on the University's internal video feed, apparently because there was some chance the speech could then be picked up by local cable companies for public access viewing.

And even this wasn't enough. Scalia also stipulated that during the question and answer session after his talk he would only entertain questions about his speech -- nothing else (i.e., nothing about that whole recent unpleasantness down in Florida.)

Now when I called the Supreme Court Public Affairs Office, spokeswoman Kathleen Arberg told me that these sorts of restrictions amounted to Scalia's standard policy. "It's not unusual for a justice to do," Arberg told me, "and it's something he’s done in the past."

Perhaps so. But 'democracy' and civil liberties should start at home, no?

And anyway, Clarence Thomas may be a self-pitying blowhard when he hits the speaking circuit. But at least he's not afraid of the cameras.

As we've discussed earlier, McCain may end up playing a very important role in the tax cut debate -- something that has as yet not gotten much attention. Tonight he's beginning to tip his hand.

On CNN this evening, using roundabout language, he signaled his problems with the Bush plan and added an important detail. He said that the issue for him was less the size of the Bush tax cut than whom it went to. That's striking, because if anything questioning the progressivity of the cut is the more leftish ground from which to oppose the cut.

And that has lotsa implications for the coming months.

Some sentences perfectly capture why their creators are masters of their craft. Here's an example …

Bill Clinton has had exactly one good day since he became a full-time New Yorker, and even that one good day required a fiasco to set it up.
Peerless.

That's the first line of Rick Hertzberg's quick take on the pardon story in the new issue of the New Yorker - a few parts of which are now actually on line. This isn't an exculpating run-down of the affair. But it's human and realistic and mordant and punishing - more or less in the right amounts.

I nominate it as one of the best three pieces written yet on the topic - along with this piece by Jacob Weisberg and this one by Jonathan Rauch (which I want to discuss more in a future post).

Weisberg's piece is the best on motive and foible. Rauch's touches on the boundless overstatement of the critics and, more importantly, explains what the pardon power actually is - something most people in this debate seem unable to grasp.

Hertzberg's piece covers a different question - the Clinton question - the question every real admirer of this guy (a group in which I very much count myself) has many times pondered. That is, why and how Clinton turns the Superman comic book metaphor on its head. How this empathetic, brilliant, supremely- politically-gifted, well-meaning man now and again ducks off into a telephone booth, wrestles off his tie, rips off his workaday suit, and pops back out again … a moron.

There's simply no other way to put it. This isn't a matter of trashing the former president. I'm as happy today as I ever have been to defend him against his critics who would puff up his screw-ups into criminality or treason.

But what makes this imperfection so interesting and trying and intractable is that Clinton's lapses are cut from the same cloth as his greatness -- looked at closely one is, unfortunately, hard to imagine without the other.

In the end, however, he often ends up looking better than his graceless accusers whose venality and malice and witlessness is planned, protracted and considered, whereas his offenses are more often merely impulsive, abrupt and foolish.

Not the way the cheap, one-trick-pony moralizers would put it. But, hey, this ain't their site.

That's my story -- and I'm stickin' with it.

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