Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

Disability benefits likely to be cut under the Bush plan. But if they didn't save enough before getting disabled, who are they to complain?

Good news on the "Byrd Rule". It looks like there's no way Frist and Co. can get around the need for 60 votes in the Senate. Mark Schmitt has the details. Seemingly arcane; but if you're interested in how all this is going to turn out, a really big deal.

Interesting Data:

Top ten highest concentrations of Social Security beneficiaries as a percentage of a state's population ...

West Virginia 22.4% Maine 20.1% Arkansas 19.9% Florida 19.6% Pennsylvania 19.3% Alabama 19.3% Kentucky 18.7% Iowa 18.5% Mississippi 18.5% Missouri 18.1%

Worst demographic for President Bush on Social Security, by age ...

In the new Washington Post/ABC poll, President Bush has a 38% approval rating on Social Security and a 55% disapproval. 7% have no opinion.

Which is his worst age bracket? 18-30 year olds. They give him 33% approval/60% disapproval.

WLBZ Channel 2 out of Bangor, Maine notes "sixteen percent of Maine's population is elderly, one of the highest percentages in the nation," and that people in the state are watching the Social Security debate closely.

There's a bit more than one and a quarter million Mainers. And just over 20% of them are current Social Security beneficiaries. That's the second highest number in the nation.

Says, the report on the WLBZ website: "Senator Olympia Snowe, who sits on the Finance Committee, is worried about the risks of stock market investment. Snowe says other options are avilable, including tax incentives to encourage retirement savings."

Sen. Snowe, who's up for reelection next year, has been generally mum on the subject. And has made only vague comments about her position.

I've been working away at a post on Rep. Rahm Emanuel's (D) appearance yesterday on Meet the Press, which I promised yesterday. But the recent flurry of activity on Social Security has left me seriously far behind on a book proposal I'm trying to write. And in any case, I think most folks are away from their computers today. So I'll try to bring you that tomorrow.

A Death Observed: Marjorie Williams, reporter, essayist and Washington Post columnist died at her home yesterday in Washington. She was 47 and had been diagnosed with liver cancer in 2001. She is survived by her husband, Slate columnist Tim Noah, and two children, Will and Alice.

Ketchum, the PR firm the Department of Education hired to hire Armstrong Williams to shill for the No Child Left Behind Act, pins the blame on Williams.

"[Williams] has said numerous times that he should've disclosed and we agree with that," says Lorraine Thelian, Ketchum's senior partner in charge of North American operations. "We would assume that the commentator pundit/would disclose. That's an assumption that you make ... Whatever he did once that contract was put together, he did on his own."

The San Francisco Chronicle says phase-out lobbyists have their eyes on three members of the Faction ...

Democrats have responded that Bush is manufacturing a crisis where none exists.

But lobbyists point to a handful of potential Democratic compromisers who have not ruled out private accounts, including Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., Rep. Harold Ford, D-Tenn., and Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn.

See the rest of the piece here.

We'll be talking shortly about some very disappointing events today on Meet the Press. But for now, a reading suggestion.

If you're following or care about the Social Security debate, you really must read the article by Roger Lowenstein in today's New York Times Magazine. It is probably the best single piece of journalism I've read on the subject -- mixing clarifying statistical and historical information with elegant description and context.

Along the way the author touches on a number of points that are commonly either ignored or distorted. For instance, you'll remember that Tim Russert today noted that in 1997 the Social Security actuaries predicated that the Trust Fund would run out in 2029.

Now they say it will run out in 2042, thirteen years later. As we've noted again and again, the forecasting assumptions upon which the predictions are based are fairly pessimistic. So it's not surprising that each time the SSA actuaries revisit their estimates they've pushed them further out into the future since each time there's a little more data that has come in that isn't as feeble as they'd predicated.

Another point. You know how back when Social Security was created most people didn't live much longer than 65 years, so the program just isn't designed for the world we're now living in?

Well, this just turns out to be a canard. As Lowenstein relates, when the actuaries sat down to design Social Security only 5.4% of Americans were over 65. But contrary to the understanding of Tim Russert and other Beltway mandarins, the founders weren't fools. They knew lifespans would increase.

When they designed the program they estimated that by 1990 -- more than fifty years later -- the number would increase to 12.65%. In fact, when 1990 rolled around, the percentage was 12.45. In other words, they knew almost exactly what the demographic profile of the retired population would be. And they designed the system accordingly.

One thing they couldn't know about quite so accurately were the effects of the baby-boom and the subsequent decline in birth-rates. But those are the factors that were taken into account by 1983 Social Security Commission that raised payrool taxes and began raising the retirement age.

So for instance you have Sen. Bill Frist today, with about as much knowledge as taste, saying that in 2008 Social Security will be hit by a "huge demographic tidal wave."

But Frist must be in a time warp. Because in 1983 we knew all about the baby-boom generation and that is precisely why they decided to build up a surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund and raise the retirement age in phased stages. We've already done the reform for that.

And what happens when Social Security starts drawing on the Trust Fund? Will the world stop turning on its axis? "Since 1970 there have been 11 years in which Social Security has operated at a deficit; each time, it redeemed bonds from the trust fund without a fuss." So, I guess the answer is, no.

Then there's one other point the author brings up toward the end of the piece -- and it's a point we should all be focusing on, with regards to the seemingly arcane and abstract distinction between wage and inflation indexing of benefits.

"If the index was changed," he writes, benefits "would be pegged to a fixed portion of a previous generation's income. If this standard had been in force since the beginning, retirees today would be living like those in the 1940's ... which would mean $300 a month in today's dollars, as opposed to roughly $1,200 a month."

That puts it in perspective. The benefit cuts President Bush is talking about would slowly grind Social Security away into nothing, not a foundation for retirement security but an all-but-meaningless subsidy that wouldn't keep many retirees off the streets.

President Bush figures that as long as current retirees are assured that their checks will keep coming in for the next decade or two, that they really don't care what sort of America their young grandchildren will be living in half a century or more from now. In other words, he looks at them and sees himself. But I think America is better than that. And if the facts can speak with as big a megaphone as the president's lies, then I think we'll see that.

But don't stop with my summary, read the Times Magazine piece itself.