Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

Man, they don't call 'em hawks for nutin'!

The Weekly Standard has two pieces this week -- one scrapbook item and one article by Stephen Hayes -- both aimed squarely at The New Republic's article by Spencer Ackerman and John Judis.

Hayes' piece is a systematic attempt to refute Ackerman's and Judis' catologue of the various misrepresentations, distortions, and outright lies the Bush administration put out in the lead-up to the war with Iraq.

First, let's stipulate that I find Hayes' refutation, well, let's say singularly unconvincing -- particularly so on the bogus Niger uranium documents (we may get more into this later.)

But this factual disagreement isn't my primary concern here. I've made my own views on this point clear enough. Read both pieces and decide for yourself.

The key is Hayes' description of TNR as "previously hawkish" on Iraq. (The scrapbook item makes the same point.) But TNR joined their publication of the Ackerman/Judis piece with an editorial deploring the administration's misrepresentations but still supporting the war, albeit much less on the basis of some of the more outlandish WMD claims.

Does this count for TNR being "previously hawkish." I know Judis never favored the Iraq war -- a fact that put him somewhat at odds with the editorial line of the magazine, which has been consistently pro-war.

Now, generally speaking, being a 'hawk' in whatever context means being a hardliner, a maximalist, someone who's not afraid of throwing their weight around and getting the job done -- someone who won't get squeamish or put up with any shilly-shallying. In short, it means being tough.

In this case, according the Weekly Standard, to be an Iraq hawk you have to a) support the war before shooting started b) support the war after the shooting ended and c) keep sitting still for the administration's agitprop even when much of it's being exposed as gross exaggerations, manipulations or outright lies on a more or less daily basis.

That's tough. Real tough.

Keeping conservatives from falling head-first into a pit of denial, disingenuousness and deceit is a full-time, sisyphean task. But, hey, I'm back from vacation, tanned and rested. So here goes.

When I popped open my in box this morning I found a slew of emails from various and sundry right-wing yahoos alerting me to this article in the National Review Online, which ostensibly puts to rest the whole matter of the Texas DPS manhunt Homeland Security story.

Here's one example from a disgruntled, but expectant TPM reader Michael K.


I am sure you are aware of the following story from NRO, or at least aware of its conclusions.

http://nationalreview.com/ nr_comment/ nr_comment062303.asp

Can we expect to see a mea culpa on TPM in the near future? It seems that you may have attempted created a tempest in a teapot for, what appears to be, no good reason.

Thanks for your time.

Michael K. (last name withheld by editor)

The essential point of the story in question is that the DHS found it did nothing wrong and that more was spent by DHS investigating the issue than it spent helping to track down the Texas Democrats in the first place. And, therefore, it's the critics who are wrong not the Texas Republicans or the DHS.

Now, just for starters, it's obviously the thinnest sort of ice any conservative stands on when judging the merit or results of an investigation by how many tax payer dollars it cost to conduct. Need I say more? But let's set that aside for the moment and go to a few points about the NRO article.

First, the author's interpretation of "DHS inspector general Clark Kent Ervin's report" which he issued "after an extensive investigation." Hard to know where to start on this one since Ervin recused himself from the entire case in mid-May. He turned the investigation over to Lisa Redman, DHS' assistant inspector general.


Then there's the "unidentified caller from the Texas DPS" who called the DHS and asked for assistance in tracking down former Texas House Speaker Pete Laney's plane. I think I can help on this one. His name is Lt. Will Crais. He's been identified, to the best of my knowledge in the New York Times, the Washington Post, and every daily newspaper in Texas.

Next, the author of the NRO article claims that Laney really was genuinely missing. And thus the necessity of finding out where he was.

Without Texas Rep. Pete Laney safely in allied territory — in the case, a Holiday Inn in Ardmore, Oklahoma — the Democrats' conspiracy was doomed to failure. Laney was the linchpin to the scheme; without him, the 50 Democrats already holed up in Oklahoma numbered one short of the necessary 51.

Texas Speaker of the House Tom Craddick was looking for Laney too. Under Texas house rules, the speaker of the house may use the Texas Department of Safety (DPS) to retrieve fugitive lawmakers — in handcuffs if necessary. If Craddick could find Laney before he made it across the border, the Democrats' walkout would fail.

Both sides wanted to know: Where was Pete Laney?

Visiting his mother, of course. After all, it was the day after Mother's Day.

Laney, who is the former Democratic speaker of the Texas house and a licensed pilot, was flying to Oklahoma when he dropped off radar screens and landed his plane in Graham, Texas to visit his mother.

See, everyone was looking for Laney! His plane had "dropped off radar screens." (I know Texas is a whole different country. But normally we call dropping off radar screens 'landing' -- especially when it occurs over something called an airport. And how'd they know it had dropped off the radar screens?) Even DHS officials admitted they were bamboozled into thinking the plane had crashed.

In any case, the whole premise here is false. Democrats weren't looking for Laney. He wasn't missing in any sense save the fact that Tom Craddick and Gov. Perry wanted to take him into custody. Even the Texas law enforcement officials don't make this argument any more. (Woe to the journalist who repeats spoon-fed talking points after they're no longer operative!)

Now, what I take from the author's seeming unfamiliarity with the case is that he read little else but the DHS own self-exonerating report. And perhaps he got walked through the controversy by some flack at the RNC, someone from Tom DeLay's office, or maybe someone from the Rutherford Institute.

That explains why his whole conclusion conveniently ignores (or perhaps wasn't aware of) the main question the critics raised from the outset and why it follows so closely from the DHS IG's report itself. As we noted here at TPM more than a month ago, the question was not whether Homeland Security knew they were being bamboozled (the report itself says they did). The question was whether a domestic political dispute was a proper matter for DHS to get involved in and who -- i.e., what politicians -- ordered the DPS to pull them into the dispute.

On question one, the DHS seems to have decided that this was an appropriate use of their albeit minimal resources. That judgment speaks for itself, and not well. As for the other question, the Homeland Security IG report states explicitly that they chose not to look into this question after state officials refused to answer their questions.

Returning back to the East Coast on an Airbus 320, right now at about 35,000. As of Monday morning we'll be back off the vacation posting schedule and back to regular daily posts routine.

There's a bounty today of good material on the growing debate and/or scandal about the administration's over-hyping of evidence about Iraq's WMD programs. Actually, in my Wednesday morning column in The Hill I said that there really is no new debate or new scandal. It's really more that it's suddenly become acceptable to discuss what everyone knew for the last year or so: that is, that the administration was willfully misrepresenting the evidence both on WMD and a purported link to al Qaida.

The first thing to look at is Spencer Ackerman and John Judis' article in The New Republic on the administration's misrepresentation of the intelligence on Iraq's WMD program. This is a good example of why they call journalism the first draft of history. It's the first attempt to put this whole matter of intelligence manipulation into a chronological and interpretive perspective. It's more complicated than people just lying. It's having your agenda and then having the facts. You try to get them to fit together. And when they don't, well, you go with your agenda. (Why else do they call it your agenda, after all.)

The reason that any of this is really even a debate, why there's even a question, goes to the heart of intelligence work itself. In intelligence work few things are ever truly certain. The 'facts' about which you have the greatest certainty are only nearly certain. And even the utterly unsubstantiated rumors from unreliable sources could conceivably be true. The whole enterprise is probabilistic. And thus, the answer to whether someone was distorting the intelligence or simply had a particularly harebrained take on it must in some sense be too. But when you begin to see people pushing the evidence that is almost certainly bogus and disputing the evidence that is almost certainly valid, you, at a certain point, just realize that you need move over into the vernacular and call things as they are. Those folks are lying.

As noted before, so much of intelligence work is made of hints and allegations, that it's going to be hard to find one of those bright line examples that counts in the public square of scandalism as a 'lie.' But Ackerman and Judis have significantly advanced the story on one of the key cases where you really may be able to show a no-two-ways-about-it lie.

One of the thus-far-hidden points of humor in all this is that the president's father, when vice-president, was widely ridiculed for claiming that he was "out of the loop" on significant elements of the Iran-Contra affair. We now have a case in which the president and most of the senior members of the government claim to have been 'out of the loop' on what numerous administration officials and intelligence community analysts knew about Iraq's WMD programs. Ackerman and Judis, however, marshal very persuasive circumstantial evidence that Dick Cheney -- and almost certainly other high-level officials -- knew the Niger uranium sale story was bogus before it was placed in the president's State of the Union speech. The argument they make is a cumulative one. So you'll really need to read the piece. But the key piece of information comes from the former US ambassador to Niger who visited the country and came back with clear and multiple evidence that the whole story was bogus.

The CIA circulated the ambassador's report to the vice president's office, the ambassador confirms to TNR. But, after a British dossier was released in September detailing the purported uranium purchase, administration officials began citing it anyway, culminating in its inclusion in the State of the Union. "They knew the Niger story was a flat-out lie," the former ambassador tells TNR. "They were unpersuasive about aluminum tubes and added this to make their case more persuasive."
I don't know off hand how the former ambassador would be in a position to confirm that the CIA had passed the information on to Cheney's office. But the authors wouldn't have published his confirmation unless he was in a position to know. So the vice-president's office got the information. And, frankly, though it is possible, it's simply strains credulity to the breaking point to believe that such information would not have made it to Cheney himself. And that's being generous.

In any case, read the Ackerman-Judis article.

Also, see Ken Pollack's long column today in the Times. Pollack makes several important points. And I feel his discomfort in being pushed into being a defender of the president's policies when in fact he is not one. His point that bears repeating is that there was all sorts of evidence that the Iraqis continued to maintain some chemical and biological weapons capacity. All sorts of governments believed this. It's also true that there were security arguments for invading Iraq which did not hinge on its being an imminent threat in the near-term. And this is where the administration's deception came into play. They knew they didn't have evidence that would make most Americans support going to war NOW. So they essentially cooked it up and made it up.

I don't share Pollack's certainty that we're going to find the chemical and biological weapons. I'm not certain we won't or that we will. But for reasons I've discussed elsewhere, I think that as time goes on it becomes increasing likely that we may have misjudged this part of the equation too.

Unfortunately, we're now in a situation in which if we do turn up some nerve gas that will be taken as evidence that the White House found the WMD. And that will be true as far as it goes. But it may snuff out the inquiry into all the administration's deceptions on nukes and al Qaida links -- the stuff that created the false impression of an imminent threat. TPM is interviewing Pollack next week. So we'll be going over these questions in more detail then.

A couple points to conclude. There's a now fashionable argument that we shouldn't let the administration's deceptions on WMD and al Qaida blind us to the big issue, which is securing a democratic, non-threatening Iraq. This point strikes me as true, but terribly off-point. We also shouldn't let the WMD deception issue stop us from passing a federal budget next year or getting the trade deficit under control. But do we need to? I figure we can manage all these things at the same time.

It's true that we are now in Iraq. And how we got there -- legitimately or illegitimately -- doesn't absolve us of responsibility for preventing the country from falling into chaos or reduce our strong national interest in insuring a positive outcome. But getting to the bottom of the administration's deceptions is about our democracy. And let's not let our strong interest in Iraqi democracy forget about American democracy, which we have something of an interest in too.

Finally, Republicans are saying to Democrats, threatening them really, with the argument that going up against the president on the question of his administration's deceptions on the WMD issue is a political loser. Walking into a buzzsaw and so forth. I'm really not sure this is true. I think this may end up being a more debilitating issue than they imagine. But certainly it could be handled poorly by Democrats. And perhaps it's not good politics. But frankly I'm not sure that matters. As Ackerman and Judis say at the end of their article, some issues are well worth pressing quite apart from the politics. It's important simply because it's wrong. And this sort of indifference to the truth is toxic in a democracy. (I can already hear the Republicans snarking about definitions of sex and so forth. But, really, their inability or unwillingness to recognize the distinction between frivolous issues and ones that are central to a democracy indicts them from their own corrupt mouths.)

A few weeks ago, I was talking to a friend who is basically a New Dem like myself and we were talking about unions. He asked me whether I really thought the country would be in better shape if the union movement were, say, twice as strong, had twice as many members as it currently has. I was surprised by the question since it challenged one of my basic assumptions. I'm a big supporter of unions. But I'm far from a down-the-line supporter of their issues. I'm a big free-trader for instance and that's not at all a popular position in today's trade union movement. So I thought about it and said that, yes, I thought it would be in better shape, though it certainly wouldn't be positive in all respects.

But what we could agree on was that a good bit of the decline in the union movement was attributable to changes in the law and de facto changes in the law -- through lax enforcement of labor law -- which chipped away and over time significantly diminished the right to organize, the right to join a union if that's what you want to do. And that, I told him, is just wrong -- whatever the economic consequences.

This is a similar case. Even if the consequences of going into Iraq turn out to be good -- and that seems to be an open question, though I think it was and to a degree remains possible -- it's wrong to have deceived the public to make the policy happen. It's wrong to have damaged the country's intelligence agencies. Let's not even get into the damage that was done to the country's standing in the world. It's also wrong for the political opposition not to say it was wrong, even if the short-term political consequences are uncertain or even damaging.

Here are a few very good examples of an ignored fact: the problems at the Times (and, for that matter, the Post and a slew of other papers) aren't new. They just started treading on what we might call, well, protected persons. Don't miss Sid Blumenthal's response to one-time and current New York Times executive editor Joseph Lelyveld's error-laden review of Blumenthal's book in the New York Review of Books. Along the same lines, see Joe Conason's and Gene Lyons' run-down of the same dispute.

Apparently, after the Democrats convinced the president to create the Department of Homeland Security, he got so into it that he ended up creating two of them.

First, there's the get-along-go-along operation that gets dragged into Keystone Cops political shenanigans and then lets bygones be bygones when it finds out it's been had. Then there's the highly-compartmented, top-secret, black-marker-wielding intelligence operation that releases its public reports.

The report the DHS released yesterday looks a bit like one of those old cornball FBI surveillance reports you might find in the back of some Malcolm X Reader you read in college or the same from some old lefty PBS documentary about Allen Ginsberg. In many places the thing is so marked up -- or, as the phrase goes, 'redacted' -- with that oversized, black magic-marker that you can hardly see what's going on.

Actually, I shouldn't have gone with the two DHS metaphor. It's really more like three. Because there's also the comically passive DHS which conducted the investigation of itself. The report issued Monday lacks, shall we say, Ricoeur's 'hermeneutic of suspicion.' (The general thrust of the report is 'no harm no foul.' We'll be saying more about the specifics in subsequent posts.) In all seriousness, the report's methods and conclusions are good examples of the difference between the hyper-aggressive investigations of the 1990s and the see-no-evil-hear-no-evil operations of today.

Here are some noteworthy examples from Wednesday's article from the Austin American-Statesman. Keep in mind that the real question most people were trying to get an answer to was just who tried to misuse the DHS's resources ...

During questioning [of the DPS], the investigator "was consistently interrupted and challenged by DPS participants that questions were not within the scope of the DHS-OIG investigation," one document said.

When asked who instructed the officer to call the interdiction center, "(redacted) said several individuals," the document said. When asked for specifics, the investigator was told that "this question was outside the scope" of the investigation, and the question was not answered.

[ed.: if and when DHS investigates TPM, I'd like to put in my request for this 'investigator'.]


Homeland security investigators refused to investigate a DPS order to destroy all documents relating to the agency's search for the Democrats, referring the matter to the FBI. The FBI was not interested in investigating.

[ed.: with Leung and Hanssen out of circulation the Bureau is stretched thin lining up a new crop of double-agents.]

Not exactly the Ken Starr treatment ...

It's the small hypocrisies that make life sweet. The president accepts public money for his campaigns, but doesn't check off the box. This from yesterday's Ari-thon ...

Q And also in the last, 2000 and coming up, the President will accept federal funds in the general election.


Q Is there any dash of hypocrisy in that he doesn't contribute to that fund when he files his tax returns?

MR. FLEISCHER: Well, interestingly, we talked before about taxpayer-financed elections, and while for the congressional races, Senate races and House races, and for overwhelming majority of the funds that go to presidential races is voluntary, there is that check on the tax reforms. And the best I remember this from IRS data is something like only 12 percent, or down to 8 percent of the American people check that box. So I think the President is in pretty good company with a number of American people who do not check that box.

Q Why would he take the money, then?

MR. FLEISCHER: As you know, he's not taking the money for the primary campaign; he will take it for the general.

Good company ...

Interesting timing. We know from depositions from down in Texas that Gov. Rick Perry got personally involved in pushing the manhunt for the Texas Dems -- he's the one who told the cops to go to the neo-natal intensive care unit. Monday, the Department of Homeland Security's investigation of itself gave everybody a clean bill of health -- while making no apparent attempt to find out which politicians authorized misusing its resources. Today, Gov. Rick Perry will announce a special session to take another shot at redistricting in two weeks -- a sort of redistricting the Washington Post said states do 'regularly', and had to have an alert letter to the editor writer point out hadn't happened in half a century.

Now back to the last few days of the vacation.

See Gov. Perry's letter calling the special session, with the no-federal-judges canard included.

Finally, something on the WMD front. No, not actual WMD. But some actual information on something I've been wondering a lot about. Just what are we offering the regime leaders and top scientists in exchange for spilling the beans about the regime's weapons programs?

I definitely thought the Iraqis still had some chemical and biological weapons capacity. The one thing that has made me seriously question whether they did has been the number of regime leaders and scientists in custody. Administration leaders talk a lot about the size of Iraq and how long it would take to search a country of that size. But this has always struck me as a bogus argument. When cops do a murder investigation they don't make a grid line of their entire municipal jurisdiction, mark it off with string, and search every foot of the city. They do an investigation to find the body and the perp. They talk to people and they follow leads.

However large Iraq may be, the fact is that we have lots of folks in custody who should know plenty about the WMD program. And apparently not one of them has squealed. My governing assumption has always been that there's a get-out-of-jail-free card, a harem, a Riviera Chateau and a lifetime supply of jelly beans (and that's just for day one) for whomever sings first. Frankly, I still think that assumption is almost certainly accurate. But this new article from the Times of London says it's not true. Or at least officials from Tony Blair's government seem to be telling the Times it's not true.

According to the article, the Brits are practically begging the Americans to start cutting some deals. But we're standing firm. Here's the key graf from the piece ...

“We have been trying for ages to persuade the Americans but they have come up with all kinds of legal arguments,” one government official said. US authorities have been happy to offer plea bargains to some of America’s most notorious criminals, but apparently draw the line at members of a regime that they have denounced as evil.
Now, one pretty straightforward explanation for this is simply that the folks in the Blair government are getting desperate. The Brits are in full scandal mode over the failure to find WMD (a British government report recently made a finding that those trailers were not mobile weapons labs after all ...) both at the public, press and governmental levels. So perhaps the Blairites are just grasping for straws and want to offer still more, hoping someone will crack. Or, more cynically, they want to float a plausible explanation for the failure to find the goods.

In any case, it makes you wonder.

More to come later today on Texas Homeland Security ridiculousness. The DHS Inspector General's report is out. And, boy, is it thorough!