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Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

Another edition of fiscal irresponsibility watch.

If you remember back to last year, the much-heralded and derided Bush tax cut was squeezed into various long-term budget projections by giving it a ten-year time horizon. If they were permanent their full deleterious effects on the nation's long-term finances, along with their strangling off of the revenue for any sort of Social Security reform, would have been even more abundantly clear.

Not that it wasn't clear, mind you. But the ten year time horizon gimmick facilitated the efforts of those inclined toward deception and lies.

Now the president says he wants the cuts all to be permanent.

How much bait-and-switch should he get away with?

And will the Dems be shrewd enough to see this as an opportunity?

Oh, the indignity!

You'll remember last week we discussed Dai Xiaoming, his company's former board-member Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly, and his political angel Chen Yuan on the mainland, the Communist Party princeling who now runs the China Development Bank. Right, now it's all coming back to you. Well, you'll also remember that the institution that made the $100 million sweatheart loan to Dai was the People's Bank of China.

Well, now even the People's Bank of China (the Hong Kong unit actually) has dropped Arthur Andersen as their accountant.

Like I said, oh the indignity!

Here is a very sobering statistic.

Amidst the carnage and devastation underway in Israel and the Occupied Territories there is a minor legal flap over whether the IDF (the Israel Defense Forces) can remove and bury bodies of Palestinians killed in the fighting in the Jenin refugee camp.

Palestinians have accused the IDF of burying bodies in a mass grave and yesterday the High Court ordered the IDF not to remove the bodies pending a legal hearing, which presumably will get to the bottom of the accusations.

These sorts of accusations and conflicting accounts are to be expected in such a situation. Each side will at least lean toward estimates of dead and wounded which are most favorable to them. And this question isn't what I mean to draw your attention to, only to draw some context.

What did catch my eye is this: According to this article in the respected Israeli daily Ha'aretz, "[IDF] Soldiers had been removing bodies [from Jenin] since Thursday and plans were to continue to do so ... [and] the army estimates that there are still 100 to 200 bodies in the camp."

As a matter of principle, deaths suffered as a result of legitimate acts of self-defense or retaliation are not the same as those lost in the original act of aggression. Thus, to me at least, you can't compare civilian casualties in Afghanistan to those in the World Trade Center. In a related manner, an army has very little choice if enemy soldiers or paramilitaries simply refuse to surrender and insist on fighting to the death.

Still, those numbers are very high and they come from only one -- albeit very large -- camp. And I hadn't heard such numbers before.

I'm not sure any political piece I've ever written has whipped up quite the degree of feeling and emotion as the piece I wrote on Al Gore a couple days ago -- at least in small world of Clintonites and Gorians. Don't get me wrong: I don't think this was because the piece itself was particularly well done, but rather because of the raw and barely healed-over wounds still lingering over that campaign which the article discussed.

As the piece described, there is really no end of the bitterness among many of the ex-staffers toward those who had what you'd call executive positions in the campaign. Particularly the marquee consultants. Whether their complaints are legitimate or not is another matter -- about which I guess I'm ambivalent. But they are quite real.

That, however, only scratches the surface of all the rankled emotions swirling about among the alums of that campaign.

I spent much of the day hearing from different folks in the Gore and Clinton orbit and obviously as you might imagine lots of the people mentioned in the piece were not at all happy with it.

But one of the things that surprised me most was that one person quite close to the former vice-president actually liked the piece quite a bit, I'm told. As a friend who talked to this person today told me by email, the person in question also "believes that Gore was surrounded by the wrong people. Your piece made some pretty memorable points in that regards, stuff that only insiders know about."

I'm not normally one to go looking for ways to defend the Bush White House. But here's a good reason to. Georgia's frequently intemperate and outrageous congresswoman Cynthia McKinney has apparently accused the Bush administration of having specific foreknowledge of the September 11 attacks and having done nothing so as to undertake a military buildup to benefit the Carlyle Group, an admittedly shadowy defense industry player with many contacts to the administration. What's even more outrageous is that McKinney doesn't even seem to claim to have any evidence. It would be one thing I guess if she actually had a Oliver Stone-esque story she was going on. But she doesn't.

As part of the TPM Book List I'm going to tell you about a legendary documentary that's just been re-released. It's called The Sorrow and the Pity. And it's simply one of the most exquisite and powerful pieces of film-making or chronicling of past events that I have ever seen. For almost thirty years it was almost impossible to find a copy of it. But now it's out on DVD.

I'm going to discuss it as part of a series of posts. But let me now get the ball rolling with a brief description.

First some cautions. This isn't a Mike Myers movie or a feel-good Ken Burns flick. S&P runs more than four hours long (Run Time: 260 minutes); it's in black and white; and it's in French (and German) with subtitles. It's a movie made for DVD since it's really best watched in a couple sittings. Still, it's wrenching, engrossing and, like all really profound art, watching it makes you more deeply human. (The Times called it "The fastest four and a half hours in the history of cinema.") It's three or four times better than any other documentary and almost every other film I've ever seen.

The Sorrow and the Pity is about the Nazi occupation of France, particularly in one city, Clermont-Ferrand, in the part of France governed by the collaborationist Vichy Regime. At the broadest level the movie explains that for all the myth-making about the Resistance, and real heroes who participated in it, most French citizens were deeply collaborationist. Perhaps it's better to say that they were cowardly, afraid, willing to let almost anything happen if they themselves could remain safe.

But that only scratches the surface of the story.

More soon about Marcel Ophuls, the director of the movie; the notorious reference to The Sorrow and the Pity in Annie Hall; the shame of Maurice Chevalier; and how the movie's message about how weak and fearful people are turns out to be remarkably, perversely powerful, inspiring, and redeeming.

I guess truth is in eye of the beholder. Or maybe in the beholder's mouth? I thought the article I wrote on Al Gore today in Salon probably wasn't one the former Veep or his people would be altogether happy with. But apparently some people don't agree. A good friend and former colleague sent this email this afternoon:

What my friend said about your Salon piece.

"I don't know how he types with Gore's [----] in his mouth."

At least people know who you are, right?

And I defended you.

I'm going to go brush my teeth now.

Okay, let's follow up on two separate posts. I predicted last week that the Republicans wouldn't be able to let this polling story alone and that their own arrogance would drag the story out and make it into a running wound of lies and obfuscation.

Well, case in point. This article in yesterday's Washington Times more or less repeats the RNC spin verbatim. The author, Ralph Z. Hallow repeats RNC spokesman Jim Dyke's ridiculous distinction about the polls the President 'might have an interest in' and so forth. If you want to laugh at these Bozos' expense, read the article.

But here's what's interesting. The article says that the RNC spent $1.2 million for polling last year.

This of course is in conflict with what Dyke told me while I was reporting this article for Salon. Dyke told me that the RNC had only spent $731,000 on polling. A few minutes later he said it was a little bit more. But he wouldn't tell me quite how much more. Now we see that by a "bit" he meant something approaching twice the number.

But here's where it gets interesting. If you go back to the story I wrote following up on Josh Green's polling article you'll see the following: When Dyke called up Green to yell at him about the polling story he disputed Green's assertion that the amount the White House spent on polling was "closer to $1 million" than three-hundred or so thousand dollars. Dyke said that the actual number was $731,000.

This is what Green told me.

But when I called Dyke up he told me that Green had misunderstood him, that the $731,000 number was the number for all RNC polling. So Green just misunderstood.

Now we know that the number for all RNC polling is $1.2 million. Which begs the question, where did the $731,000 number come from? It doesn't correspond to any of the numbers Dyke told the author of the Washington Times article.

Could Dyke have just come up with the $731,000 number off the top of his head? That's hard to figure, isn't it?

What seems a lot more likely is that $731,000 really is the amount the White House spent on polling in 2001. And in an off-the-cuff, huffy conversation with Green, Dyke just told the truth. ($730,000 would be about the number Green's GOP sources said it was. So it all adds up.) But after Dyke's conversation with Green, he realized that this number wasn't supposed to be made public. (Maybe Matthew Dowd smacked him around?) So he came up with this cover story about Green 'misunderstanding' him. And he started spinning like crazy.

Is this conjecture? Sure. But answer me this: where'd Dyke come up with the number $731,000?

Why doesn't someone follow up on this?

Interesting news from the Gallup poll. For the first time since September 11th, the Democrats have pulled ahead of Republicans in a generic congressional election survey. Actually by seven points. Put this in the context of another poll released yesterday showing the president dropping to 76% approval.

Now, let's be honest enough to concede that 76% is still an astonishingly good number. And after months of getting slaughtered in the polls, it wouldn't really do for Dems to start crowing the moment they get an encouraging read.

But it does look like something's happening here.

Just finished an article for Salon.com about Al Gore's reemergence onto the political scene. It posted a couple of hours ago.

I've been writing about Al Gore for about three years now and I have to say that the pieces just get harder and harder to write, or rather the process of writing them just gets increasingly vexed. Partly that's because the range of the possible gets narrower. At the end of 1999 you had a sense that maybe Gore could bust out of his shell and be the person he is in small groups, etc. etc. you know the story. By now, however, after he's busted out of the bubble and been recaptured by it time and again, you pretty much know that it's probably never going to happen.

Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong. But I don't think I'm wrong.

Listening to staffers and friends talk about Gore over the last several days I kept thinking of a story a baby-boomer I know told me once about getting his father to share a joint with him at some undisclosed point in the late 1960s -- this of course would be in the pre-TPM era (BTPM).

I don't remember all the details precisely. I doubt this friend of mine does either. But the long and the short of it was that the baby boomer's father lit up and proceeded to wig out. He gets all scared and everything. So then the baby boomer is trying to calm him down, walk him through it, etc. (figure that the father was born in maybe 1910). And so the father is laying there on the couch or something and the baby boomer is saying, "Just let go, just let go." And the father says "I don't think I can, I've been holding on too long."

This story has always had a certain poignancy for me because the younger of the two men later told me that he thought it was one of the most honest, truest things his father ever said. And having known the older man, I suspect that's right.

When I was speaking to various Gore-ites over the last couple days there was this line I kept hearing: that if Gore could just go by instinct and not think about everything so much, not consult a slew of experts for every decision but just go with his gut, that stuff would be okay.

But you get the sense that he can't let go either. He's been holding on too long.

No matter how much grass he smoked in the 1970s.

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