More wobbles and noise.
As of Sunday morning, the two tracking polls with new numbers out -- Zogby and WaPo/ABC -- show, remarkably, the exact same thing: dead even at 48%.
For Zogby that's Bush going up one, for WaPo it's Bush going down one.
On one level, it's somewhat striking that these two polls, which seem to employ very different methodologies, should be in perfect agreement, at least on this one day. It also provides more evidence -- though certainly not conclusive -- against the assumption that the OBL tape would trigger last-minute Bush momentum.
Also of interest is the Fox poll, with a new one out this morning.
From the best I can tell, Fox is running a quasi-tracking poll. They seem to be coming up with a new poll every day or every other day. And each poll includes entirely new data. But the polls seem to be sampled on overlapping days.
So, for instance, on Friday they released a poll taken on Wednesday and Thursday nights. On Saturday they released another taken Thursday and Friday. And now today they have one out taken Friday and Saturday.
The direction of the number is hard to miss: Friday, Bush +5; Saturday Bush +2; Sunday, tied.
Once again the inevitable caveat, these are small differences, possibly accounted for by statistical noise. But it's hard to see anything bad in those numbers for John Kerry and equally difficult to miss that Kerry is doing five points better in the poll taken entirely after the OBL tape than he was in the poll taken entirely before.
Late Update: I failed to note that in a two-way race among likely voters Fox actually has Kerry up by one over Bush, and among registered voters up by two.