Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

I wanted to pass on this passage from Charlie Cook's most recent 'Off to the Races' column in which he analyzes the state of the presidential campaign in various states ...

At this point, there remains 10 states that are too close to call: Florida with 27 electoral votes, Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10). While too close to call, these states are not necessarily dead even. In Pennsylvania, President Bush, after holding a consistent lead over Kerry, finally slipped behind last month, but not far enough to warrant moving it into the "Lean Kerry" column. The same case exists in Florida, where a recent poll by a Republican firm for a private client put Kerry up by four points, but no one believes that the state is anything but a toss up. In Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico, Kerry seems to be up by a bit, but again not quite enough to move those into the Kerry column. Bush is ahead in Missouri, but it's a close call as to whether the lead is big enough to justify moving it into the "Lean Bush" column.

In adding up all the electoral votes that are in the safe and lean columns for each candidate, President Bush has a tight 211 to 207 lead in the Electoral College. Bush also has 120 votes in the toss up column. However, if you pushed each of the 10 toss up states to Kerry -- who seems to be ahead by a slight margin -- he would come out on top.

Two points on this. <$Ad$>

These numbers seem somewhat different from ones you can find on sites like this one that tally up all the different state-wide polls to give a read on where the electoral college numbers are. But I think it's worth noting that those tallies can be at least somewhat misleading for the following reason. Unlike people, all polls are not created equal. And when you get down to state-level polls the range of quality becomes much greater than it is at the national level. A veteran politics watcher like Cook can see through that smoke and take into account the poor quality in some polls and deeper trends at work in given states. For that reason, I put a lot of stock in Cook's opinion.

Still, he does seem to me to be understating Kerry's recent strength in Pennsylvania and Florida. In the case of Florida, what seems to have been a private GOP poll may have put Kerry up by 4 points. But the most recent independent poll, done by Quinnipiac, put him up by 7 points (6 with Nader added to the mix). And the poll before that, by ARG from the beginning of this month, also put Kerry up by 8 points (7 with Nader).

In fact, if you just go by the polls (which is not necessarily the best way to go) Florida is as solidly in the Kerry camp as Michigan -- and Cook doesn't put Michigan on his list of too-close-to-call states.

I agree with Cook to a degree. Some skepticism is warranted on the Florida numbers. One has to take the state's history into account, who the governor is, and what we might call the natural advantages the GOP has in the state, both legal and otherwise. If Kerry really ends up winning Florida by 7 or 8 points, it'll mean that President Bush was defeated in a blow-out.

In any case, these aren't criticisms of Cook, just possible points of disagreement. I'm posting his analysis because I put a lot of stock in what he says. Those are just my two cents.

I finally got a chance to talk to Chris Homan, Campaign Manager for Pete Sessions, about the sign war going on in the Sessions-Frost race down in Dallas.

Homan said he believed that the school sign incident (described below) was authorized by the Frost campaign and designed to "intimidate" Sessions and his disabled son. He called Frost's charges that the whole stunt was a Sessions dirty trick "delusional" and an example of the "near psychopathic level [Frost] is willing to drop to" to win the election.

It seems awfully hard for me to believe that the Frost campaign really authorized covering Sessions' kids school with Frost for Congress signs. On the other hand, Homan notes that Frost's campaign hasn't put forward any evidence to support its dirty tricks claims. And while I doubt very much that Frost authorized this little stunt, it certainly doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility that this is something that might have been done by over-zealous supporters.

Homan also said that the Frost campaign had a history of sign practices that were "sleazy at best."

Now, finally to the matter of the police report I mentioned earlier which showed Sessions getting questioned by a police office for personally removing his Democratic opponents signs late in the evening a few days before election day 2002. (According to the police report, Sessions was not cited.) Homan confirmed that it was a genuine police record but called it "more or less a police activity report ... a meaningless piece of paper."

According to Homan, Texas has a law against putting candidate signs on public roadways. And Sessions and his aide were merely "collecting yard signs ... that had been illegally placed along the road."

In other words, says Homan, Sessions was just doing his (rather late night) civic duty.

You can't say Alan Keyes doesn't have a novel approach to homeland security issues. Yesterday, according to the Sun-Times, Keyes reaffirmed his view that the September 11th terrorist attacks were a warning from God that America should outlaw abortion.

There's an interesting passage in the analysis portion of the new Zogby poll. It says ...

Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge – numbers more similar to Clinton’s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore’s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President’s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.

Meanwhile, the last major sounding of Hispanic <$Ad$>voters, done by the Post, Univision, and Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, puts Kerry over Bush by a 60% to 30% margin.

Jewish voters, though probably only electorally significant in one swing state this year, remain as Democratic as they were four years ago (75% to 22% for Kerry), despite much more than the usual degree of pandering from the White House, according to this poll just out from the National Jewish Democratic Council.

And though it's probably not too much of a surprise that President Bush isn't doing all that well among Muslim voters, let's note for the record that this poll from June has the president clocking in at a rather anemic 3% support among voters who say there is no god but God and Muhammad is his messenger.

Now, many times I've noted the unlovely tendency many political commentators have of claiming that Democrats are 'dependent' on the black vote or that absent black votes the Democrats would be a permanent minority party. And far be it from me to make the same disreputable charge in reverse.

But if you look at these numbers you can see pretty clearly that the weight of the GOP comes heavily from white voters and particularly white evangelical voters. Despite all the terrible buffeting the country has gone through in the last few years, the thesis of Chris Caldwell's masterful 1998 essay, 'The Southern Captivity of the GOP' is well worth revisiting.

(Unfortunately, the Atlantic Monthly has chosen not to make it available to the public on its website. If someone can point me to a site that has reprinted the piece, using some sort of public interest exception to the IP laws, I'd be much obliged.)

"The Illinois Republicans are not just guilty of tokenism. They are guilty of last-minute scraping-the-bottom-of-the-barrel tokenism. The local party has been undergoing a sort of collective mental breakdown ever since Jack Ryan's Senate candidacy collapsed in June over a sordid sex scandal."

That's from the well-known lefty rag, The Economist.

Some challenges are best left unmade?

Marty Frost and Pete Sessions are two sitting Texas congressmen battling over the same district -- fallout from the redistricting battle last year. A side note to the campaign in recent days has been a fairly silly tussle over campaign road signs and whether one or the other of the two campaigns is stealing them, using them for dirty tricks, or doing anything else that no one in his or her right mind would care about at any other time save for during a hotly-contested congressional race.

The latest round started yesterday when Sessions was dropping his 10 year old son, who is a special education student, off for his first day of school at Lakewood Elementary School. There he saw the school and playground covered with Frost campaign signs.

"It was obvious that I was being targeted, my son was being targeted, my family was being targeted," said Sessions. "It disappoints me. It's disturbing."

The Frost campaign said it had nothing to do with it, noting that many of their campaign signs had recently been stolen and suggesting that those stolen signs had ended up in said school yard.

Now -- and I promise, this is actually going somewhere -- Sessions, not surprisingly, responded that his campaign had done no such thing and demanded that the Frost campaign come forward with any proof that his campaign was involved in stealing signs or any other such disreputable sign-related activity.

Well, the Frost campaign seems to have done him one step better.

Late this afternoon the Frost campaign sent out a press release with a police report from a few days before the 2002 mid-term election (Oct. 27th 2002) in which a Dallas police officer, Jana A. Brewster, caught Sessions -- then a sitting member of congress -- and an aide on a late-night sign stealing run.

(I have not been able to independently verify the authenticity of the report. But, given the fact that the Frost campaign is publicly distributing it, I'm going to assume it's on the level.)

The relevant portion of the police report states that the responding officer was driving along when she spotted Sessions' truck pulled over on the side of the road with a man "pulling up elections signs." The officer then stops the two guys and ...

both susps were asked for identification. R/O looked in the bed of the truck and there were approximately 10 political signs iwth the name "Pauline Dixon" (i.e., his '02 opponent) on them. Susp1 (i.e., Sessions) was asked if Pauline Dixon was aware that he was pulling up her signs and Susp1 replied, "No." Susp1 was then asked if she was who he was running against and Susp1 stated, "Yes." Both Susps were released at the scene and the signs remained in the bed of the truck...

The driver of the car (or in Dallas police talk, Susp2) seems to have been Bobby Hillert, Sessions Health, Education and Technology LA in his capitol hill office.

I tried to contact the Sessions campaign for comment. But when I called, the person designated to field press inquiries was busy in a conference call and couldn't speak to me. If and when we hear back from him, we'll post his response.

Here's a thought.

I usually think of Republicans as interested in limiting the franchise for select groups of voters. But in a move which -- and here I have to give the guy credit -- really does seem to look beyond divisive racial categories, Alan Keyes has called for all Americans, regardless of race, creed, etc. etc. etc., to lose their right to vote for senators.

Let's also note that this seems like an exceptionally brave move for a man currently running for senate under the current democratic rules.

In any case, can we get Sen. George Allen, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to go on record about whether he thinks this is a good idea? Or how about the president?

Perhaps also we can get a response on Keyes' proposal for slavery reparations in the form of a two generation federal tax holiday (with the exception of payroll taxes) for all African-Americans?

David Ignatius today has an excellent column on the politicization of terror alerts and the related matter of the leak of the name of Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan. As he notes, it"appears that Khan may, all too briefly, have been one of the most important agents in place the United States has managed to recruit in al Qaeda."

The conventional wisdom on this -- or at least the widely aired claim -- is that administration officials leaked Khan's name in order to bolster the credibility of the terror warnings issued just after the end of the Democratic convention, and that they did so out of some mix of organizational incompetence and indifference to the consequences of the leak.

Yet an author in Salon today has a more troubling theory.

Husain Haqqani says there were two leaks from the Pakistanis -- the first, leaking Khan's name and the second, blaming the initial leak on the Americans. The leaks, suggests Haqqani were "motivated by [an] eagerness to show off their success in arresting al-Qaida figures or, more ominously, by a desire to sabotage the penetration of al-Qaida that Khan's arrest had made possible."

The two possibilities are quite different in their implications. But both suggest -- a point Haqqani develops through the piece -- that the US has delegated the al Qaida hunt to an inherently unreliable partner.

(After all, we know Pakistan's intelligence service -- the ISI -- was riddled with Taliban and AQ sympathizers prior to the war. So there's no reason to think that's changed entirely.)

Nor is the author here just some random scribe. If you scan down to the author bio, it notes that Haqqani was an "advisor to former Pakistani Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and ... Pakistan's ambassador to Sri Lanka." Since those are the two previous democratically-elected Pakistani prime ministers, the second of whom was overthrown by the current military head of state, it is fair to infer that Haqqani is not well-disposed toward the current government. But those posts and the high-level diplomatic appointment also suggest that he's pretty wired in the country and probably has pretty good sources in country.

He concludes the piece by noting "As long as the U.S.-Pakistan relationship remains a single-issue alliance based on the quid pro quo of changes in Pakistani policy for U.S. money, the regime in Islamabad will continue to be tempted to take its time in finding all the terrorists at large in Pakistan. After all, most subcontractors who are paid by the hour take longer to get the job done."