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Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

Trump said it himself: "It's over." And he's right. It is. He's the nominee. But his victory speech and Q&A was deeply revealing - both in its power and its self-destructiveness.

I cannot remember a presidential campaign in my lifetime and perhaps in more than a century where the two nominees not only differed so much on policy (we've had plenty of that) but tonally in the most basic way they exist as candidates and public people.

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It's a bummer for Dems that they won't get a shot at presidential nominee Ted Cruz. Don't get me wrong: I think Trump will be a historically weak general election candidate. But Cruz would be the choice you'd want if you're running the general election for the Democrats. Cruz is a conventional right wing candidate who would almost certainly go down to a crushing general election defeat. He is conventional and predictable. He's a new version of Barry Goldwater, only Goldwater had some personal appeal.

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Rhode Island has looked pretty rough for Hillary Clinton all night. But as a former Rhode Island resident, I will tell you that Rhode Island's minority voters are heavily concentrated in the one big city, Providence. The state's population is just over 80% white. But Providence is about 50% white. Providence hasn't reported any votes yet. So there's more of this story to unfold.

Late Update: Welp, closed significantly but a solid Sanders win. It was even closer in Providence. But Sanders actually won Providence too or is at least winning with about 70% of the vote in.

A bit like I said about the results of the New York primary, the delegate math doesn't change dramatically with tonight's big Trump victories (not relative to what they we thought they would be a week ago.) But that's not the full picture. Tonight's Trump wins are so crushing that I suspect Republicans are going to take a look at these results, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow and say, "Who are we kidding?"

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It looks like Sanders is taking Weaver's lead and not Tad Devine's, to put it mildly. He's making the case against closed primaries and more or less explicitly making the case that Super Delegates should choose him to be the nominee even if he's behind in pledged delegates because he runs better against Donald Trump.

That said, there were no real attacks on Hillary Clinton. It seemed like a mix of recognition of the writing on the wall along with a defiant insistence that his campaign should get the nomination.

The early exit polls showed Trump at 60 or over in PA, CT and MD. The initial results seem to confirm at least big big wins.

As I said earlier on Twitter, if the scale of these win holds up, I think the GOP primary race could all but end tonight.

You're here at TPM. So you're probably a political junkie. You've undoubtedly seen a lot of horse race polls. Sanders is more popular than Hillary. Trump is historically unpopular. Both candidates consistently beat Trump and Cruz. But Sanders consistently does so by greater margins. All valuable information if you know how to interpret it. But the Harvard Institute of Politics just released a detailed poll on the opinions of millennial voters, particularly voters between 18 and 29 years of age. The results are a very, very big deal.

Here's what the poll shows.

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We've noted several times in the recent weeks that Donald Trump is quite unlikely to pivot the center, become more presidential, or whatever other metaphor you want to use to describe transitioning away from being a rabble-rousing freak ginning up revanchist white identity politics to becoming someone less likely to freak out establishment Republicans and more able to build a winning general election coalition. Whether such a Romney-ite Etch-a-Sketch would actually change people's opinions of Trump is a fascinating but largely moot point since it's quite clear that Trump is either unable or unwilling to make such a change. After Trump appeared in full 'Trump 1.0' persona mode yesterday on the campaign trail, we're seeing news reports that Trump is rebelling against Paul Manafort's 'shifting persona' narrative and giving power back to wartime campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, who's now out of under a battery rap and ready to roll.

I would submit that the entire premise of this conversation is wrong.

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Wow

Last night, when i read ex-Politico CEO Jim Vandehei's oped in the Wall Street Journal I was stunned, even though I know from long experience what a thoroughly corrupt and ridiculous world establishment Washington is. It is essentially a story of how someone at the heart of establishment Washington got in touch with "real America" at a vacation home in Maine and decided that what real America is clamoring for is a third party funded by Mike Bloomberg dedicated to more aggressive use of Twitter, more cynical and politicized use of drone strikes, having Silicon Valley tech hucksters retool the government and 'cleaning up the mess in Washington' even though he doesn't seem to have any clear idea of what the mess is other than too many people focused on public policy. It's probably most generously viewed as a bid to raise money in Silicon Valley for the new media venture he's launching.

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