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Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

In my previous post I noted Nate Cohn's comments about about non-college educated whites voting as a minority. There's an article Nate wrote back in June which I think is very prescient. There are two issues in the article - one is a technical discussion about voting demographics. Are the exit polls which we take as gospel really accurate? There's a good reason to think they make the electorate look less white and younger than it actually is. Not dramatically so - but significantly.

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Thinking over this very stunning and bleak night, the best summation I've seen is from Nate Cohn of the Times who said this: "How to think about this election: white working class voters just decided to vote like a minority group. They're >40% of the electorate." 'Like a minority' might strike some people as a bit off. But I know what he means. And I think he's right: non-college educated whites thinking of themselves as cut off from the centers of power and needing to vote as a group to secure its political and social interests.

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10:44 PM: If you're looking for something to hold on to, the Detroit Free Press called Michigan for Clinton and is so far sticking with that call. I don't know any other number crunchers who see it that way. That doesn't mean they don't think she can win. But there's a big difference between thinking something is possible and that it's all but assured. So much has been upended tonight who knows what to think.

10:31 PM: One of the most surreal things about this election night is the betting markets. The rapid whipsaw against expectations is looks very similar to what betting markets did during the Brexit election in the UK.

10:19 PM: Just so we're all clear on this, Florida isn't the issue or Ohio or even North Carolina. It's in the Great Lakes states. Michigan and Wisconsin are where this is at. And it looks pretty challenging.

10:08 PM: One thing to keep in mind is that I think that if Trump wins, there's still a good chance that Clinton will win the popular vote. In fact, I think I'd say that even it's more likely than not that if Trump wins, Clinton will win the popular vote. He only has a very slight lead in the national popular vote. And she'll get a ton of votes in the West. Obviously, the national popular vote doesn't matter. But I don't think it's ever good for the country when the electoral college and the popular vote go different ways.

10:06 PM: I think this is very on the mark.

9:56 PM: We didn't expect Virginia to be close. It was really close. It now looks like the Northern Virginia is coming in for Clinton. That will probably come together for Clinton. Probably. The real issue is Michigan and perhaps Wisconsin.

9:36 PM: I mentioned earlier that we've clearly had a pretty substantial polling failure. One thought occurs to me. One of the most oft-repeated stories in the history of polling was one of FDR's races - I think 1936. The polls of the day completely got it wrong. If I recall the reason was that the pollsters didn't figure in that a lot of poorer voters didn't have phones. So phone polls had a very Republican skewed sample of voters. Now, that seems obvious. But it hadn't shown up in the few earlier elections that had been polled because they hadn't been as clearly polarized by class. In other words, you had a way of predicting elections that seemed to work. But it was based on a certain kind of political configuration, a certain social basis for divisions between the parties. That system worked in the pre-New Deal politics. But it failed miserably in the different politics of the New Deal. And it only became clear that the old model was based on a certain kind of politics when it failed. We need some explanation for why this result is so different from what was expected.

9:30 PM: In case you're having a difficulty putting all these moving pieces together, this is now extremely close nationwide. Trump is running strong in many blue states. He could definitely win the presidency. I'm not saying that's going to happen. But he's competing in a lot of places that Clinton needs to win.

9:24 PM: We've had many conversations about polling failures. It seems like we've definitely had one here. We had lots of reporting about a big Latino vote surge. It's still not clear what happened there. I'm not sure that reporting was incorrect. It may simply have been matched and overcome by a surge of conservative white voters. But a lot of polls and a lot 'models' were significantly off. There's no getting around that.

9:14 PM: I haven't been doing much blogging here because I'm mainly looking at the map and trying to see what's happening. It is definitely not what we expected. Trump is outperforming recent Republican candidates in rural America. And it's putting him ahead or close in a lot of states. For the moment he's ahead in Virginia. You always have Northern Virginia reporting late. But Virginia shouldn't be with Trump in a lead with this much of the vote reporting.

9:05 PM: There are a lot of states that we thought Clinton would take early that Trump is running really close.

8:53 PM: We don't know how this will play out. But the big story right now in Florida is that Trump is really outperforming Romney in the Republican counties.

8:51 PM: This could go really long in Florida.

8:27 PM: Really hard to say with any certainty. But it's looking like Trump got a big surge of rural white votes in the Florida panhandle. This looks like it's going to be really tight in Florida.

8:22 PM: We could be at this for a while.

8:16 PM: Florida is really tight. But it seems like Clinton should have a decent amount of votes in South Florida to pull it out. Should.

8:07 PM: We're still trying to resolve some technical issues with our results scoreboard. We hope to have it back shortly.

8:05 PM: I'm not sure entirely what they meant. But a short time ago a CNN reporter said that the Trump campaign had no visibility into the choices of non-party-declared voters in Florida. That they were flying blind essentially. That can mean a lot of things. But it sounded liked a catastrophic failure to collect the kind of data campaigns now usually have at their disposal. Curious to hear more about that.

8:02 PM: Results are coming in pretty rapidly now.

7:53 PM: From what I can see Florida is looking fairly good for Clinton. Not done but pretty encouraging for Clinton.

7:35 PM: We are having some load issues with our election results console. Hope to have it back momentarily.

7:30 PM: Bunch more states, lot of 'too early to calls'.

7:00 PM: And here we go. 7pm first big batch of states.

6:55 PM: Good grief. Pat Toomey just announced that he did vote for Donald Trump after all. He resisted answering this question or perhaps even deciding until now.

6:49 PM: BREAKING: We have a breaking story out of California: a shooting near a polling station in Azusa. One person dead, three injured and an active shooter situation. It is not clear yet whether this incident is tied to the election or the polling station or just happens to be proximate to a polling place. More as we get more information.

6:45 PM: All the hints over recent days about Florida and Democratic turnout seem like they're turning out. Record turnout in Broward County, which is of course a key Democratic bastion in the state.

6:43 PM: TPM Reader DW is all set ...

Josh,

Been reading for 15 years and it keeps getting better and better. Well done, sir! Here's our Harlem spread tonight...

Blueberry Moonshine "Donkey Punch" Cranberry Moonshine "Elephant Blood" Blue and red chips. Taco bowls. 7 Circles of Hell Layer Dip Blue Cornbread

Cheers!

6:34 PM: Keep an eye on a court case being argued right now in North Carolina over whether some precincts stay open. Also keep an eye on the Missouri Senate race.

6:26 PM: While we're waiting, our election results console wait till a state has at least 10% of precincts reporting before coloring it in a light version of red or blue to showing who is leading as the results come in. Click through on the map to the right of the blog to get down to individual states, districts and counties. The rest should be self-explanatory. At 7pm we're have partial or complete poll closings in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and New Hampshire. At 7:30pm we'll have North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

6:06 PM: Well, as you can see, with results almost all from Kentucky, Donald Trump has a rather substantial popular vote lead in percentage terms! For the full live election results console click here.

5:35 PM: This is probably not as bad as it sounds, but certainly a little bumpiness.

Note that Donald Trump has been out today questioning the legitimacy of the election on various fronts - in the courts, on Twitter. That makes sense (in his warped mind), given the early indications we're seeing.

Okay, folks. Here we go. A bit later we're going to put the election results scoreboard up on the front page. We will have results from all federal elections - president, senate, house plus governors. We will also have results down to the county level. And we'll present those results side by side with the 2012 results down to the county level. That will allow you to get a sense of how things compare to the 2012. More shortly.

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