Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.

Articles by Josh

9:11 PM: Looks like Chris Matthews had this wrong.

9:10 PM: I laugh at Trump mic truthers. But Pence's mic actually sounds a bit off, echoey.

9:08 PM: Kaine brought a knife I guess.

9:06 PM: Tim Kaine is pretty prepped.

9:02 PM: Chris Matthews is saying that he expects Kaine won't attack Trump and will focus on playing defense. I really hope that's not true.

8:46 PM: Debate commentary wisdom will soon be here.

If you're getting ready for tonight's debate and you've been putting it off, now's a great time to join TPM Prime. It's cheap; it's awesome; and you'll help build a better TPM, not just in these crazy weeks before the election but in the years to come. Take a moment right now and join us.

Thanks. I really appreciate.

You may think that tonight's historic face off between Tim Kaine and Mike Pence, two of the more boring politicians in American history, is going to be a snooze. But please, do not be so naive! It will be much cooler than you think. It is true that every Veep debate in this century has included someone who is either crazy (Palin), evil (Cheney) or at least entertaining (Biden). Indeed, in addition to Biden-ness the 2012 Veep debate had significant drama because Democrats were rather desperate for Biden to get them up on their feet after Obama's deflating showing in 2012's first presidential debate.

But here's why Veep debates are still a big deal.

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Feral Trumper raises White Supremacist 'Pepe the Frog' poster in background as CNN interviews man who played a historic role in the case that became Brown v Board ....

All your polling questions answered!

If you missed it, Episode #4 of my new podcast is out. In this episode I talk to Professor Charles Franklin, one of the country's preeminent polling experts about un-skewing, phone v online polls, how not to make yourself get stupid and more. Check it out.

After what seems like a clear inflection point around the time of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton is edging up toward 50% for the first time in the race. The PollTracker Average currently puts Clinton at 49.2% compared to Trump's 42.9% - a 6.3 percentage point lead. This is with three new polls out this morning.

Trend chart after the jump.

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Through all the swings and vicissitudes of this campaign and the often fairly dramatic shifts in the polls there have been a number of persistent patterns that have held my attention. One of those is what I've referred to as the 'Clinton Wall', the fact that while the margin separating the two candidates has swung wildly, Trump has never been able to move into a lead over Clinton. He keeps running at that wall. But he bounces off each time. Another pattern is the shifting electoral map itself. Clinton has had much more persistent and more robust leads in a series of states that weren't even considered swing states a decade ago, even as she's struggled (at least in relative terms) in some fairly reliable blue states.

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