After the UK voted to leave the European Union a week ago, there was a lot of talk about how the polls blew the result, predicting a "Remain" win when in fact "Leave" managed a close but clear victory. The rejoinder to this criticism - I think a valid one - was that the balance of polls showed "Remain" in the lead but only barely. A better interpretation of the data was that the race was too close to call.
Beyond the statistical margin of error, there were aspects of the contest that made it difficult for pollsters to accurately model. If we combined statistical with what we might call methodological margin of error, the margin of the "Remain" lead was well within this combined margin of error.
But now TPM Reader DF sends me an email with a link to a study which puts the whole picture in a very different light - and even suggests, by implication, that Donald Trump might be doing better than we think.
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