Over the last week I've seen a number of new articles claiming again that Democrats shouldn't be so sure Donald Trump is an easy beat in the fall. He could reshuffle the deck in unexpected ways and become a formidable candidate. Now, before sharing my thoughts on this I want to restate what I've been saying for months which is that I think that the range of possibilities in a Clinton v Trump match up is anything from a narrow Trump victory to a historic Clinton blow out. Trump can win. He has the inherent power of celebrity familiarity; Clinton has the inherent weakness of seeking a third term in power for her party; Trump has a galvanizing and clear message for aggrieved white voters; and, critically, he would basically be the first ever anti-trade liberalization, anti-globalization presidential candidate - a critically undeserved niche in the national party system. With all this said though it is important to see just how long a shot this 'reshuffle the deck with white working class voters' model really is.
Let's start with some thought experiments.
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