So we've got two significant polls out today from Ohio, one from Bloomberg/Selzer and another from CNN/ORC. The first shows Trump with a 5 point edge and then second with 4 points, in head to head matchups. CNN also has a Florida poll out which also shows Trump up by 4 in Florida. That pushes Ohio and Florida into the "lean Trump" category and pushes Trump over 200 electoral votes for the first time in The TPM Electoral Scoreboard, which now stands at Clinton 254, Trump 236.
Better news for Democrats, a new national Quinnipiac poll, which has tended to have a GOP house effect of late, gives Clinton a 5 point lead.