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Dylan Scott

Dylan Scott is a reporter for Talking Points Memo. He previously reported for Governing magazine in Washington, D.C., and the Las Vegas Sun. His work has been recognized with a 2013 American Society of Business Publication Editors award for Best Feature Series and a 2010 Associated Press Society of Ohio award for Best Investigative Reporting. He can be reached at dylan@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Dylan

Obamacare animosity might be enough for Republicans to retake the Senate in the fall. That has become the consensus among political strategists and analysts and a poll released Thursday is bearing it out.

The Pew Research Center poll underlined the 2014 problem for Democrats: Republicans voters were more likely to say that the health care reform law would be very important to their vote than Democrats by a 12-point margin, 64 percent to 52 percent.

The same dynamic showed up in the raw approval numbers for Obamacare: Republicans were more opposed (83 percent disapprove; 10 percent approve) than Democrats were supportive (73 percent approve; 16 percent disapprove).

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Fundraising in anticipation of a Hillary Clinton 2016 run continued to grow in the first quarter of 2014: Ready for Hillary, the super PAC organizing a grassroots machine for a presumptive presidential campaign, reported that it raised $1.7 million from January through March.

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This fall, in a strange aligning of the electoral stars, Republicans will defend governorships in several key presidential swing states: Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could also be added to that list, which expands the proverbial map a little bit more.

One might think that, if the GOP manages to hold onto those seats, they'd be setting themselves up to take back the White House in 2016. In conversations TPM had with a few independent strategists, that conventional wisdom was the norm. It feels like it makes sense: Why wouldn't holding the state's highest office help? Especially if the governor is popular, he can show up at campaign events with the presidential candidate and mobilize the ground game.

Flip five of those six states in the GOP's favor on the 2012 map, and we'd currently be in the 15th month of the Mitt Romney administration. So Republican wins in 2014 should therefore give the party a better chance of seizing the White House two years later, right?

But it doesn't. In fact, according to the same kind of political analysis that shattered the horse-race perception of the 2012 presidential race, the opposite is true: GOP gubernatorial wins this year would actually hurt the party's chances of reclaiming the presidency in 2016.

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In most Obamacare analyses, the law's $64,000 question is whether enough healthy people are enrolling in private coverage. That metric is important for its long-term success. But the flip side of that question is: Are sick people who had been shut out of the insurance market prior to the Affordable Care Act getting the coverage they need?

A study released Wednesday looked at prescriptions issued to early Obamacare enrollees, and its findings suggest that some of those people have gotten coverage and are using it. It's not the definitive measure of how the law is doing, but it is another data point in the ongoing effort to gauge the impact of health care reform.

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A study released Tuesday blows the door wide open in the never-ending parlor game to estimate how many uninsured Americans have gotten health coverage under Obamacare, suggesting that the number might be bigger than previously thought.

But at this point, nobody is quite sure what to make of it.

RAND Corp, a non-profit think tank, released the survey. Its eye-opening finding: 7.2 million previously uninsured people have gained health coverage through their employer since mid-September. That's on top of those people who have purchased private coverage on Obamacare's insurance marketplaces or enrolled in Medicaid or young adults who signed up through their parents' plan.

Those three groups were the only people that many previous estimates of Obamacare's impact had accounted for.

In other words, if you take the earlier estimates of 8.3 million to 9.5 million uninsured people who had gotten covered by marketplace plans, Medicaid and their parents' policies -- and then add some of the millions more who RAND found had gotten insured through their employer -- then Obamacare could be responsible for reducing America's uninsured ranks much more than the earlier estimates suggested.

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House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) sided on Monday with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) over Breitbart News, requesting that his column be pulled from the news outlet's new California website.

Democrats called the website, which featured sexually suggestive images of Pelosi, "foul, offensive and disrespectful to all women." They urged Republican leaders to condemn the site. McCarthy seems to have obliged.

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