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Dylan Scott

Dylan Scott is a reporter for Talking Points Memo. He previously reported for Governing magazine in Washington, D.C., and the Las Vegas Sun. His work has been recognized with a 2013 American Society of Business Publication Editors award for Best Feature Series and a 2010 Associated Press Society of Ohio award for Best Investigative Reporting. He can be reached at dylan@talkingpointsmemo.com.

Articles by Dylan

The thinking is so ingrained now that it seems superfluous to point it out: Republicans are convinced that Obamacare's unpopularity will propel them to midterm victories in November, enough to take back control of the Senate and therefore Congress. Simple as that.

“I don’t think there’s any serious observer that believes Democrats can take the House, and the Senate is slipping away from them,” Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said last week. “That’s because Americans are hurting from this law.”

But a new survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation might bring the GOP's certainty into question: 53 percent of Americans, including 51 percent of independents, say they're tired of debating Obamacare and think that the country should focus on other issues.

Even among Republicans, the numbers are almost evenly split: 47 percent are tired of the debate, while 49 percent think it should continue.

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The deadline to sign up for health coverage through Obamacare is less than a week away, give or take, but most uninsured Americans don't know it, according to a new poll.

The Kaiser Family Foundation's monthly tracking poll found that 60 percent of uninsured people couldn't come up with the March 31 deadline when asked. And relatedly: 50 percent said that they expected to remain uninsured.

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Obamacare's open enrollment ends next week. Soon after, the Obama administration will announce how many people -- with a few caveats -- signed up for private health coverage through the law for 2014.

At that point, the evaluation will truly begin. Some on the right will inevitably observe that the law fell well short of the original Congressional Budget Office projection of 7 million enrollees. Others on the left will likely counter that it still hit (or came close) to the revised 6 million projection that CBO made after the disastrous launch of HealthCare.gov. Charles Gaba, who has been tracking the enrollment process, anticipates 6.2 million enrollments.

None of that really matters. Health policy experts and insurance companies themselves agree that the raw number of enrollees isn't really significant when the difference is 6 million versus 7 million. If nobody had signed up, that would have been a problem. But that didn't happen.

The real data for measuring Obamacare's success aren't in yet, but they eventually will be. At the top of the list: What happens with premiums in 2015? Plus: Do insurance companies leave the market or enter it? And the ultimate barometer: Has the number of uninsured Americans dropped significantly?

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The Treasury Department has now weighed in amid conservative media titan Matt Drudge's claims that he recently paid the Obamacare penalty he dubbed a "liberty tax."

In summary, Drudge apparently volunteered to fork over money to the IRS far earlier than he needed to. And he did it before the rules for doing so were final. TPM reported on Friday that was one of the possibilities from the facts Drudge laid out last week.

The department confirmed to TPM on Monday that instructions to pay the individual mandate penalty are still forthcoming. The IRS is still working on proposed regulations. On top of that, Treasury said that Americans who file quarterly estimated taxes -- as Drudge said he did -- are not required to include payments for the penalty.

That means Drudge likely gave the IRS an amount of money, which he has described as his penalty, but which he lacked the full information to pay.

And in a twist on Monday night, the IRS released a new explainer with some examples for calculating the penalty -- three days after Drudge said he paid it.

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A couple weeks ago, a Republican triumphed over a Democrat in a special House election in Florida. Because much of the conversation about the race centered on Obamacare and its possible role in the outcome, the Democratic defeat was quickly extrapolated by some as a full damnation for the party's Obamacare message and its prospects for the midterm elections, where the Democrats are defending seats in deep-red states where the health care reform law is unpopular.

"Florida loss exposes Democrats' disarray on Obamacare" was among the headlines that followed. A somber examination of how Democrats approach Obamacare -- and whether they needed to separate themselves from it -- was supposed to be imminent. And, to be clear, there was undoubtedly some anxiety, especially within the Beltway.

But with a few weeks of distance, has anything really changed on the ground, particularly in the battleground states that will determine control of the Senate and where Obamacare is expected to be a critical issue? Any signs of panic from the Democratic candidates who should have been shaken by the vote in Florida?

Actually, both Democratic and Republican strategists in two of those key states told TPM the answer is no. In fact, polling suggests it is far from certain exactly how Obamacare will factor into the November elections.

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A Republican state legislator in Georgia has separated himself from his party's opposition to Obamacare's Medicaid expansion there, arguing that its position "is hurting our state."

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on the comments that Sen. Chuck Hufstetler made Tuesday on the Senate floor. They came during debate of a bill that would require the state legislature to approve expansion of Medicaid, rather than risk Republican Gov. Nathan Deal having a change of heart and expanding the program independent of the General Assembly.

Hufstetler criticized his colleagues for not holding hearings on Medicaid expansion and argued that the state was losing money in multiple ways by declining the federal funding that comes with Medicaid expansion.

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This Sunday is the the Affordable Care Act's fourth anniversary and, in what is something of a tradition, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus wrote a scathing op-ed in USA Today on Friday to remind readers of all that the GOP believes is wrong with the law.

But it's also a reminder that there is one piece of the law that even the GOP really, really loves and would never roll back: letting kids stay on their parents' health plan until age 26.

"Believe it not, we can actually find some common ground. For example, I think we can agree on allowing young people to stay on their parents' insurance plans until age 26," Priebus wrote. The Republicans could take the Senate -- even the presidency -- but that piece of Obamacare is here to stay.

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