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David Kurtz

David Kurtz is Managing Editor and Washington Bureau Chief of Talking Points Memo where he oversees the news operations of TPM and its sister sites.

Articles by David

Let's go ahead and pop this balloon before it takes flight.

Ken Mehlman, this morning on Today:

"[W]hen it comes to both the House and the Senate, we obviously always knew this would be a tough year. We had a combination of, not only the fact that it's the 6th year of the President's term, where typically you lose more than 30 seats. Also the nation's at war, where typically you lose seats, as Tim [Russert] pointed out last night. And the fact that a number of members unfortunately were involved in scandal.


Typically lose more than 30 seats? You might guess that Mehlman was not challenged by the Today hosts on this little flight of expectation-lowering fantasy. And it appears to be one of the GOP's morning-after talking points.

Here are the number of House seats lost by the President's party in the 6th year of his presidency during the post-war period. I pulled the numbers from the House website and quickly did the math:

1958: Eisenhower--Republicans lost 48 seats 1986: Reagan--Republicans lost 5 seats 1998: Clinton--Democrats gained 5 seats

So only once in the last half century has the President's party lost more than 30 seats in the second-term midterms.

The 1974 midterms, in which the Republicans lost 48 House seats in the aftermath of Watergate, occurred after Nixon resigned.

Of course, if Mehlman wants to compare the sea-change that followed the dark period of Watergate to the sea-change that occurred yesterday, I have no objections. Quite an apt comparison in many ways.

With 76% reporting, Democrat Claire McCaskill has emerged with a very narrrow lead over Sen Jim Talent. Most of the late vote in Missouri breaks for the Democrat, so you would expect to see McCaskill stretching that lead as the night wears on. But no guarantees.

Late Update: CNN was reporting on its website a very narrow McCaskill lead, but the latest numbers--with just 71% reporting--show Talent up by 3 percentage points.

Later update: McCaskill back on top. With 80% reporting, she leads 49-48.

The White House strategy for going forward is pretty apparent from this Reuters dispatch:

President George W. Bush, disappointed at the Democrats' seizure of the House of Representatives, will hold a news conference on Wednesday to urge his opponents to work with him, the White House said.

The news conference was set for 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT).

White House spokesman Tony Snow said the outcome of the elections, in which Democrats were projected to win control of the House and pick up several Senate seats, was "not what we would've hoped."

"But it also gets us to a point: Democrats have spent a lot of time complaining about what the president has done. This is an opportunity for them to kind of stand up," Snow said.


No concessions. No retreat. No surrender.

There will be much more to say about this in the coming hours and days, but it's not a bad time, even as the Senate remains in the balance, to emphasize a point we have made here from time to time during this campaign.

The election marks a beginning more than an end. Savor the moment tonight. But there is much to be done and no time to linger. Plans must be implemented. More battles waged. Our opponents have been planning for this moment for many months. They are ready. We must be, too.

The two Georgia House districts which have been fiercely contested are still too close to call. Both Democratic incumbents, Marshall and Barrow, hold small leads with most of the votes counted.

Karl Rove formally told the President tonight that the House had gone to the Democrats, Reuters reports.

To have been a fly on that wall.

Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean holds on to her seat in the Illinois-8th, CNN projects.

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