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Cameron Joseph is Talking Points Memo's senior political correspondent based in Washington, D.C. He covers Capitol Hill, the White House and the permanent campaign. Previous publications include the New York Daily News, Mashable, The Hill and National Journal. He grew up near Chicago and is an irrationally passionate Cubs fan.
The 2018 election is still almost six months away, but high-profile Democrats with even higher ambitions made their claims to the future of the party on Tuesday at the first big cattle call of the year for the 2020 campaign.
Almost a dozen big-name Democrats with potential White House ambitions took the stage at the Center for American Progress’s 2018 Ideas Fest, with many testing out campaign themes as they look to square up for the not-too-distant presidential election.
The Democratic primary lineup in two years is expected to be crowded, and while no one mentioned the big 20-20 onstage, it was clear where many erstwhile candidates’ heads are — and what the audience was looking for.
“People are all interested to see something new, what ideas and what leaders may be coming up next,” Jennifer Palmieri, a former communications director for President Obama and Hillary Clinton’s campaign, told TPM. She called the event “a place where national leaders can come and lay down, birth ideas that people are going to be running on in ‘18, governing on in ‘19 and running on in ‘20.”
The roll call included Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Chris Murphy (D-CT), and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) — seven of the eight senators who might run for president.
The senators were joined by other potential White House hopefuls like Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro and billionaire green energy and impeachment advocate Tom Steyer. All subtly pitched the small crowd of Democratic activists, think-tank nerds and influence-peddlers on their visions for the future of the party while closely hewing to their own core issues.
Only Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), who with a half-dozen other possible candidates spoke at last year’s conference, wasn’t onstage, while Sanders, who CAP had been criticized for excluding last year, was included.
And while there was remarkable unity on policy views among the potential candidates, the differences over tactics and emphasis will likely define the battle for the nomination and the soul of the party for years to come.
Sanders, in a speech billed to be about criminal justice reform, argued that “breaking up the oligarchy” was the only way to advance other progressive causes, before lacing into billionaire Jeff Bezos for the fact that some Amazon employees are paid little enough that they’re eligible for food stamps.
Gillibrand leaned hard into women’s rights and the power of women to change the direction of the country.
“Women are holding our democracy together in these dangerous times,” she declared in her speech.
“If it wasn’t Lehman Brothers but Lehman Sisters we might not have had the financial collapse,” she said.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) zeroed in on how the rising generations have fewer economic opportunities than the Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers.
“We know what a free market should really be about and how we’ve perverted it in everything we see changing from just a generation ago,” said a candidate that some on the left have accused of being too cozy with Wall Street.
And he twice managed to work in references to the Midwest — not a bad thing to polish up in a campaign speech for someone interested in Iowa — including a warning that “wild rampant corporate consolidation in the agricultural center” was hollowing out Midwestern communities.
Both Booker and Brown worked in references to Martin Luther King’s poor people’s campaign speech to express solidarity between the fight for racial equality and economic opportunity.
“If we’re going to be a progressive movement and it’s about civil rights and human rights, it’s also about worker rights and it’s also about trade unionism,” Brown said during a morning panel.
Booker, Warren and Castro all talked up their modest roots and the government programs that gave them the opportunities to rise, humanizing themselves with their back stories while arguing those opportunities are shrinking now.
Most avoided directly discussing President Trump, instead focusing more on positive ideas — raising the minimum wage, criminal justice reform, the fight against climate change and marijuana legalization.
The exceptions to the rule were Warren and Klobuchar, who argued both must be done.
“While we’d rather talk about great ideas we can’t climb that hill by ignoring the millions of Americans who are angry and scared about the damage this presidency and the Republican party have done to our democracy,” Warren declared in the event’s closing speech.
“Progressives can do two things at once,” said Klobuchar. “We can, one, focus on that optimistic economic agenda … and what needs to be done to protect our democracy.”
Klobuchar and Brown both warned Democrats not to forget the Midwest.
“The Midwest can’t get left behind at the gas station in 2018 or 2020,” she said, while Brown said calling his state part of the Rust Belt “diminishes who we are.”
“Talk about the dignity of work, talk about whose side are you on,” he implored his fellow Democrats.
While the candidates looked to carve out their unique brands onstage, they were careful to project unity. Gillibrand complimented Castro. Brown name-checked Klobuchar.
Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer summed up the solidarity sentiment of the event: “In order for us to win on this we have to in fact win elections as a result of a coalition of people who have each other’s back on every single issue,” he said to applause.
As the 2020 campaign begins to move out of its shadowboxing phase, it will be interesting to see how long that solidarity holds.
House Democrats are girding themselves for a crucial stretch of primaries beginning Tuesday that could make or break their chances at a majority — and have party strategists worried they could blow some big opportunities.
Key battles in Pennsylvania and Nebraska, as well as contests in Oregon and Idaho, will get decided this week that could dramatically alter the contours of the House map. They’ll be followed in quick succession by elections in 20 other states over the coming month that will pit a number of establishment-favored Democrats against upstart challengers, with key races from California to Texas to Maine.
The biggest House contests on Tuesday come in suburban territory crucial to Democrats’ chances at retaking the House. Democrats will pick their nominees to face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and for another open seat near Philadelphia in Pennsylvania’s newly redrawn congressional map, and decide whether to give former Rep. Brad Ashford (D-NE) the right to a rematch after he lost a close election to Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) in 2016.
Ashford is favored in his race against left-wing challenger and nonprofit executive Kara Eastman in Omaha. National Democrats are excited about his return — he overcame a terrible 2014 cycle to defeat a GOP incumbent and nearly held on last year against Bacon, another tough campaigner — and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is backing his primary bid, the only one of this week’s races they’ve publicly stepped into. Eastman’s team argues her support of single-payer health insurance is an asset — “both Democrats and Republicans need health insurance,” campaign spokesperson Heather Aliano said, before arguing base enthusiasm matters — but national Democrats say if Eastman wins they might not have a shot at the seat, since a district where a number of jobs are dependent on insurance giants headquartered in the city.
The race Democrats are most concerned about is the Fitzpatrick race, where self-funding philanthropist Scott Wallace has moved back into the district after decades away, most recently living in the D.C. suburbs and South Africa. Wallace, a grandson of one of FDR’s vice presidents, has spent millions on the race and most expect him to defeat Navy veteran Rachel Reddick, a young former Republican.
And next door in the Allentown-based 7th District, strategists say an anti-immigration Democrat who’s out of step with many of the party’s priorities may be the favorite in a messy three-way primary against a more traditional Democratic candidate and a Bernie Sanders-backed pastor.
“We’re experiencing some of the challenges that come with high levels of enthusiasm — people jump in who have some problems in their background that raise concerns. Sometimes they’ll win and then we have to manage it,” said one Pennsylvania Democratic strategist.
Democrats mostly aren’t panicked by the prospect of a Wallace nomination in the suburban 1st district – but most say they’d prefer to have a young, female veteran running for the seat who hasn’t been gone as long rather than a self-funding candidate who hasn’t lived there in decades.
“I don’t necessarily think he’s weak [in the general election], but he has some baggage,” said Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist Joe Corrigan, who is neutral in the race but predicted he’ll be the nominee after spending more than $2 million of his own money on the primary, much more than she’s spent. “Objectively it’s probably better to have a woman who’s a veteran but I don’t think it’s a write-off if we get Scott Wallace by any stretch of the imagination. He’s got a good campaign team around him and has a lot of local support. That said, a woman would be better.”
That might be generous — Cook Political Report House race handicapper David Wasserman called Wallace a “badly flawed candidate” in a recent article due to his long time away from the district and time living in one of South Africa’s toniest communities, and he’s faced criticism for late payments on hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes in Maryland (he said he didn’t get the letter forwarded to him in South Africa, and immediately paid them off when he found out).
Wallace’s team pushed back on the attacks on his record, pointing out that Fitzpatrick also moved back into the district to run after leaving the FBI when his brother retired for the seat two years ago, while touting his self-funding ability.
“Voters know that Scott grew up in the district, moved for college and a career — just as Fitzpatrick did — and has always been tied to Bucks County and this district. And Scott has the resources to fight any attack, unlike any candidate who has run here in recent history,” Wallace adviser Jefrey Pollock told TPM.
Democrats are hopeful that a solid wave election could help obscure any candidate flaws in a district that Hillary Clinton narrowly won and President Obama carried twice. And they’re bullish that Wallace’s millions will allow him to define the race on his terms in the expensive media market, forcing Republicans to spend heavily to keep up. Republican outside groups have already reserved millions in Philadelphia, a sign they’re bracing for a cash onslaught.
But they admit that he’s going to have to find a way to explain to voters in the upscale district why he supports some tax increases while defending his own delay in tax payments. And they concede that the moderate Fitzpatrick is going to be a tough out in the swing district.
Democrats are much more bullish about their chances in a newly redrawn district centered on Allentown, which Clinton narrowly won and Obama comfortably carried twice. But many aren’t thrilled about a man who they think may win — Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli (D), who has repeatedly praised President Trump and holds hardline immigration views that are completely out of step with the national party (Morganelli campaign spokesman Rich Wilkins says he supports a DACA fix and “his positions in the past on immigration have largely been based on his work in law enforcement.”)
He’s facing off against former Allentown city solicitor Susan Wild (D), who has more mainline Democratic views and who Democrats think would be a strong general election candidate as well, and Greg Edwards, an African American pastor backed by Bernie Sanders who strategists think doesn’t have as good a chance on Tuesday.
A recent public poll found all three leading their possible GOP foes, with Morganelli, possibly due to his high name identification, with the widest lead. But Republicans think local elected official Marty Nothstein, a former Olympic cyclist, could run a strong race if he wins the nomination.
Morganelli might not thrill Democrats given his views — and they invite a future primary challenge if he squeaks through on Tuesday. But while his possible nomination smarts for progressives, it’s unclear whether he’d be Democrats’ strongest chance at winning the seat.
“I think we’re going to wind up with Morganelli winning the primary, which sucks because he’s not really a Democrat, but him not really being a Democrat might help us in the general [election],” said Corrigan.
National Democrats are making a last-minute push to avoid catastrophe in California, where the state’s unusual jungle primary system could leave them without general election candidates in a number of districts they’re banking on to seize control of the House.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and a number of elected officials from the state are rushing in to try to lift some Democrats over others and knock back second-tier Republicans, risking backlash and second-guessing in an effort to avoid getting locked out of winnable districts.
California’s top-two all-party primary system means that whatever two candidates win the most votes on June 5 will get to square off in the general election, regardless of what party they belong to. That, and a surge in the number of viable Democratic candidates compared to past years, has Democrats worried that their challengers could split the vote and let Republicans lock them out in five different districts they hope to contest this fall, most of them centered in fast-diversifying Orange County.
Their biggest worries are the open seats held by retiring Reps. Darrell Issa (R-CA) and Ed Royce (R-CA), as well as against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), a weak GOP incumbent facing real competition from another Republican who could slip through. They’re also keeping an eye on the races against Reps. Duncan D. Hunter (R-CA) and Jeff Denham (R-CA), though there’s less concern about those contests.
“The DCCC needs to do whatever it can to make sure that we are not boxed out in November,” DCCC Vice Chairman Ted Lieu (D-CA) told TPM.
After closely monitoring the problem for months and quietly pushing lower-tier candidates to head for the exits (with mixed results), the DCCC kicked into high gear in recent days to do what it could to keep its party from blowing some golden opportunities in a number of golden state districts.
Their biggest move to date — and their most controversial — was a Friday endorsement of businessman Harley Rouda over Dr. Hans Keirstead in the race to face Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), the district most Democrats say is the one they’re most worried about. The move is a split from the state Democratic Party, a hub of hardline progressive loyalists, which endorsed Keirstead earlier this spring, as well as with SEIU and a number of other state unions.
Rohrabacher is uniquely vulnerable because of his strident Russia praise — but that’s given an opening to Republican former state assemblyman Scott Baugh as well, who is in the mix to make the runoff against the deeply flawed incumbent.
“I’m very concerned about that race. It would be a shame if we didn’t get a Democrat into the top two. There’s no reason we shouldn’t other than too many candidates and too big of egos,” said Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA), a Rouda backer.
That move comes following a gradual rollout of endorsements for Rouda from lawmakers in nearby districts — he now has more than a half-dozen congressmen in his corner —and days after Rouda released a poll showing the two Democrats in a three-way tie at 13 percent apiece with Rohrabacher at 30 percent support.
An online poll conducted for Keirstead allies released earlier this week found a different situation, with Rohrabacher at 27 percent, him at 19 percent, Baugh at 17 percent and Rouda hanging back at 11 percent support.
Rohrabacher’s district is far from the only one national Democrats are worried about.
A few weeks ago, the DCCC jumped in to back Navy veteran and lottery winner Gil Cisneros (D) in the race for the open seat to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA). The move drew howls from Cisneros’ opponents, the loudest of them from businessman Andy Thorburn (D) and the progressive organizations backing him like the Bernie Sanders-affiliated Our Revolution and the California Nurses Association.
That endorsement could come back to bite them, as a local Democratic official who’s backing Thorburn accused the married Cisneros of drunkenly trying to seduce her then withholding a campaign donation — a charge Cisneros and his allies strongly deny. Others told TPM Cisneros wasn’t drunk that night — including local Fox News reporter Jamie Chambers, who said he talked to Cisneros around the time of the alleged encounter and that he was “sober, clear, and lucid.”
Pushing one candidate over others isn’t their only option.
Party leaders have quietly worked on second-tier candidates for months to drop out to help the remaining Democrats consolidate the vote. And a few have done so – including Rachel Payne, who recently dropped her bid for the Rohrabacher seat. But others, like EMILY’s List-backed Mai Khanh Tran in Royce’s district, have told them to stuff it.
Rohrabacher’s seat is the one they’re the most worried about. But Issa’s is the one they’re struggling the most to act in.
Four different viable Democrats are running for the open seat, which stretches from Orange County to San Diego and which Issa almost lost last cycle. That includes the man that almost beat him last time, former Marine Doug Applegate (D), who many Democrats aren’t as high on this time because of accusations of stalking and two temporary restraining orders put out by his ex-wife. But he’s clung onto some of his base, and while many in the party are hopeful that one of the other Democrats will emerge, they’re not sure who it will be. National Democrats think former State Department employee Sara Jacobs has some momentum, but Navy veteran Paul Kerr (D) and green energy executive Mike Levin (D) have their own bases of support.
“The Democrats have endorsed across the board … Two of them [Jacobs and Kerr] have money, one [Applegate] has name recognition, so it’s really hard to handicap it,” said Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA), who represents a neighboring district in San Diego. “Darrel didn’t do us any favors by retiring, because it would have been him and one of the Democrats, and I think that’s true with Ed Royce too. We’re in uncharted waters right now.”
Issa said he was hopeful Democrats would get shut out in his district.
“If the voters make the right decision there will be two Republicans on the ticket in November,” he said. “I think we might get it.”
Democrats have gone on the attack in recent days against a number of second-tier GOP candidates in the hopes of consolidating Republican voters’ support behind one option — and making it easier for one of their own candidates to leap-frog the second-place challenger.
The DCCC moved last week to do so in Royce’s district, launching $300,000 worth of ads to knock down two of the three Republicans with real support in the race. Sources tell TPM that they and The House Majority PAC, House Democrat’s main super PAC, will likely make similar moves in other districts in the coming days. Lieu suggested there were plans in the works to do the same to Baugh in the Rohrabacher district, and attack one of the Republicans running for Issa’s district, Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R), comments national Democrats confirmed to TPM.
“Rocky Chavez voted to increase taxes and as a Republican that is a very difficult thing in a primary to get past Republican voters. So we could point out certain facts,” Lieu said.
“The strongest play is to go after Baugh and bring him down,” said one national Democrat monitoring the races.
National Republicans have yet to jump in, but could use similar tactics.
Democrats are less worried about failing to get a candidate through against Denham, whose base of support is strong enough with Republicans that another Republican shouldn’t be able to get through there. And their only real worry with the ethics-challenged Hunter, as Lieu put it, is “if there’s an indictment” before the primary that could fracture the GOP base.
Democrats have been burned before in these districts.
“Our focus has to be on ensuring that a Democrat advances to the November election,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA), who got boxed out by two Republicans in his own first race for Congress before getting there with help from the DCCC in his 2014 rematch, told TPM. “Obviously there were lots of lessons learned from things in the past.”
They’re also hopeful that a huge turnout gap that’s favored Republicans in past years will be reversed. Democrats have had more enthusiasm nationwide this year, and competitive statewide races for governor, senator, and lieutenant governor will drive turnout on the Democratic side, making it easier for one of their candidates to win because Republicans have no viable statewide candidates.
But Democrats admit direct involvement to boost one candidate over another risks backfiring as the jilted candidate could capitalize on anti-Washington, anti-establishment fervor in the base to gain momentum. That happened already in Texas, where Laura Moser used the DCCC’s clumsy attacks against her to vault herself into a primary runoff against the party establishment’s preferred choice.
“It’s a double-edged sword. Whoever doesn’t get the DCCC endorsement is going to go ‘Oh, Washington’s trying to pick,'” said Sanchez.
This story has been updated to include more information about the allegations against Cisneros.
House Democrats’ campaign committee has officially chosen sides in the battle to face Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) in the fall, throwing their weight behind businessman Harley Rouda (D) over businessman Hans Keirstead (D).
“Harley has demonstrated that he is the strongest Democrat in this race and best prepared for the general election, and with the grassroots and numerous California delegation members strongly behind him, we know we will flip this district this fall,” DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) said in a statement.
The move is an attempt to avoid the disaster of the two Democrats evenly splitting the vote and giving Republicans a chance of pushing through two candidates in the fall.
California’s unusual top-two all-party “jungle primary” means that the two candidates of any party who finish at the top in the June 5 primary advance to the general election, and this is one of five swing seats where Democrats have been worried they might blow their chances at winning by being locked out completely.
Rohrabacher’s deep flaws as a candidate make him vulnerable in the fall — but have also opened the door to a serious GOP challenge from Scott Baugh, a popular local lawmaker.
Democrats have been warily watching this race since it might be their biggest risk of getting shut out in June. But national Democratic interference has the risk of backfiring by infuriating local activists. To that end, the DCCC’s endorsement was paired with strong backing by local Democratic activists, with a joint statement with the district’s local Indivisible group.
“We’ve been hard at work for more than a year to defeat Dana Rohrabacher and bring change to our district,” the leaders of Indivisible Orange County 48 said in a joint statement. “We believe that the only way we can accomplish this goal is by Democrats and like-minded Independents and Republicans to unite around Harley Rouda, a strong progressive whom we were proud to endorse last week. We appreciate the DCCC following our lead and standing with Harley Rouda and grassroots organizations like Indivisible.”
Even so, the move is likely to ruffle some feathers. Keirstead has some significant local support as well, including an endorsement from the California Democratic Party, an organization that’s largely been taken over by hardline progressive activists.
For a guy who once said ex-con coal baron Don Blankenship had “blood on his hands,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has been notably restrained while discussing the former GOP Senate candidate since Tuesday’s primary.
In a pair of TV interviews following Blankenship’s primary loss to West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), Manchin refused to directly criticize Blankenship for his racially charged attacks against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) — while favorably comparing him to Morrisey as the true West Virginian (Morrisey moved there from New Jersey a decade ago).
Manchin also wouldn’t directly attack Blankenship for his role in failing to prevent the explosion at the Upper Big Branch Mine that killed 29 people in 2010.
And he refused to directly say whether he thought Blankenship’s ads attacking McConnell’s “China family” were racist, instead dodging the question in an interview with NBC News while offering tepid criticism.
“I’d like to think that wasn’t, the terms he used, and how he used them, I would never take that course. And if Don felt that he was explaining it from his upbringing, the culture that he comes from in West Virginia. And Don’s on that Kentucky-West Virginia border. I don’t know, I can’t say, I haven’t heard that before,” Manchin said in a meandering answer. “There’s Italian-Americans, Chinese-Americans, Japanese-Americans, you know we’re all ethnic of some derivative. But the way it was said, it was taken in a connotation that might not have been flattering to a person who’s a proud American, no matter what their descent is.”
Manchin also wouldn’t take the bait when pushed on Fox News about Blankenship.
“There was only one truly conservative Republican West Virginian in the race, and that was Don Blankenship. We have had our differences on many issues. But Don, you cannot question Don’s conservatism and also him being a Republican in West Virginia. He’s the only one,” he said in a shot at Morrisey’s roots.
Blankenship had gone scorched-earth against Manchin on TV during the primary, but since his loss has been at least as critical of Morrisey, saying he wouldn’t support his former primary rival.
Manchin isn’t exactly embracing the deeply controversial coal baron in these statements. But he does seem to be looking to avoid antagonizing his on-again, off-again foe, while possibly looking to woo Blankenship supporters who don’t like Morrisey (or at least depress GOP support for Morrisey).
Manchin and Blankenship have had a complicated relationship — they were on cordial terms for much of Manchin’s time as governor, and Manchin even flew on Blankenship’s private plane to get back to West Virginia after the UBB Mine explosion since he couldn’t get a direct flight. But he became much more critical of Blankenship when the facts came out about the disaster and the coal baron took the heat for those miners’ deaths. Blankenship’s Senate race was seen partly as a way to get back at Manchin, who he blamed for an unjust prosecution almost as much as the Obama Justice Department.
Manchin ducked when asked if he’d accept a Blankenship endorsement, saying he’d have “no control” over that and hadn’t talked to Blankenship recently.
“Like I said, we have had our differences. But you cannot questions Don’s West Virginia Republican conservative roots. And we have been head to head down on many issues. I just, with the horrible tragedies we have had, it’s just — my heart still aches for all the families. And I think you know how close I have been to the families,” he said. “But on other issues on that, we have had our differences, and there have been some things we have agreed on politically.”
Manchin alluded to that barrage of ads Blankenship ran in his Fox interview, suggesting he hoped things would quiet down for the sake of the families of the dead miners.
“I hope that, in time, the good lord lets Don find peace in his heart, because these people need to move on with their lives. That’s all I have ever said,” he said. “And I hope that happens. I hope Don finds peace in his life and allows these families to find peace in theirs.”
Billionaire GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson has made a $30 million donation to the GOP’s main House super PAC, a GOP source familiar with the donation confirms to TPM, a huge donation to try to help save the House majority.
The donation is three times what Adelson gave the group last election cycle — and far earlier, since he didn’t give them money until August 2016.
The money is a crucial boost to the group as it looks to hang onto its majority in the lower chamber of Congress. Strategists in both parties think Democrats have at least a 50-50 shot at winning House control, and Democratic candidates have basically been printing money this election cycle, putting Republicans in a situation where they may struggle to keep up and forcing the CLF to bail out members who fail to prepare themselves for an advertising onslaught.
Super PACs don’t get as much bang for their buck as candidates, who get discounted advertising rates. The CLF has already said it plans to spend huge sums to try to keep the House in GOP hands, with an initial ad reservation of $48 million in 30 House districts, and with Adelson’s help, that number will clearly rise by a large amount.
A coalition of pro-immigration Republicans, many facing tough reelection battles, are bucking House GOP leaders to try to force a last-minute vote to let undocumented immigrants brought here as children regain their legal status.
The group, led by Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL), initiated a discharge petition to force a House vote on a bill to reauthorize the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that President Trump attempted to end last year and is currently in limbo given ongoing court challenges.
“Immigration has paralyzed this institution for too long,” Curbelo said in a Wednesday afternoon press conference outside the Capitol.
He is joined on the bill by 14 other Republicans — leaving the petition just 10 votes shy of triggering a free-for-all of voting on the House floor
(assuming all Democrats support it, as expected).
That list reads largely like a who’s who of vulnerable members from diverse districts. Curbelo is in for a tough reelection fight, as are Reps. Jeff Denham (R-CA), David Valadao (R-CA), Will Hurd (R-TX), Mia Love (R-UT), Mike Coffman (R-CO), John Faso (R-NY) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY).
“This should have been resolved years ago if not decades ago,” said Denham, who represents a swing district with a large number of Hispanics.
“I’m not abdicating my responsibilities to the White House,” said Love at the press conference.
She’s in a tough race in a district where President Trump performed poorly but won — and where the heavily Mormon population is strongly supportive of immigration reform.
Some other members on the bill are longtime Republican moderates who are retiring at the ends of their terms: Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Charlie Dent (R-PA) and Dave Reichert (R-WA).
One interesting person on the bill: Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), a close ally of the White House.
Republican leaders have long fought against this effort, and it may be much tougher for those leading this effort to get the final 10 votes that would force a floor vote on a DACA bill and other immigration measures than the first 15. But the move is a political winner for the group as they look to show some distance from Trump ahead of a tough midterm election.
Republicans have been arguing for months that Democrats will blow a spate of winnable races by nominating hard-line liberal candidates out of step with their districts and states. On Tuesday, Democratic voters signaled they have no such plans.
In a number of races, the so-called establishment candidate handily won their primary, teeing up a tough general election battle for Republicans.
The clearest examples of this can be seen in Ohio, where former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray demolished former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) to win his party’s gubernatorial nomination, and Democrats selected Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor as their nominee for the special election to replace former Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH).
It was the same in North Carolina. Marine Corps veteran and green energy businessman Dan McCready (D), who has the support of the moderate Blue Dogs, cruised to victory over a poorly funded left-wing challenger. He’ll face hardline conservative pastor Mark Harris (R), who knocked off Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-NC). And Kathy Manning (D), a longtime Democratic Party donor, easily won her primary over a left-wing challenger to face Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) this fall.
In West Virginia, populist Democrat Richard Ojeda won the nomination for Rep. Evan Jenkins’ (R-WV) seat even though he said he voted for President Trump last year (though the state lawmaker isn’t exactly an establishment Democrat — the heavily tattooed former paratrooper led the fight to raise teacher pay and was an ardent supporter of the state’s teacher strike).
And in Indiana, a former Republican health care executive, Mel Hall (D), defeated a candidate calling for single-payer health care and will face Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) in a GOP-leaning seat this fall.
That hasn’t been the case everywhere this cycle. Blue Dog Democrats and Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) had backed Jay Hulings in his bid to face Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX), but he didn’t even get to the primary runoff. Instead, Air Force veteran Gina Ortiz Jones, a favorite on the left backed by EMILY’s List, is the heavy favorite to emerge in that runoff. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s attacks against hardline liberal Laura Moser (D) backfired, elevating her into the primary runoff against establishment favorite Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D), who has EMILY’s List’s support but is hated by organized labor. Most Democrats believe Fletcher would be the much more electable general election candidate in the GOP-leaning district held by Rep. John Culberson (R-TX).
Though they aren’t always favored by the party’s left flank, plenty of Tuesday’s Democratic nominees are strong liberals and populists — Cordray had support from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and led the charge against companies bilking average people, and Ojeda has a fierce populist spark. The true story from last night is that Democratic voters avoided bad fits for their districts, not that they nominated centrists over progressives. But it will be key for Democrats to keep this streak alive as the party looks to seize back the House and win other key races this fall.
Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-NC) has lost his primary to Baptist minister Mark Harris (R), making him the first congressional incumbent of 2018 to lose a primary and boosting Democrats’ chances of winning the seat.
Harris led Pittenger by 48.5 percent to 46.2 percent with all precincts reporting when the Associated Press called the race shortly after 10:30 p.m. EST.
“I have called Mark Harris and conceded the race and I wish him the best,” Pittenger said at his election night event.
That result gives Democrats a major boost as they look to win the Republican-leaning seat, which stretches out from Charlotte and President Trump won by 11 percentage points two years ago.
Democrats were already excited about their prospects in the district — and Republicans were nervous — because of a top-tier recruit, Marine Corps veteran and businessman Dan McCready (D).
But Harris, a hardline social conservative and former state senator who led the efforts to push through the state’s discriminatory and now-overturned “bathroom law” targeting the transgender community, gives them a much easier target.
Besides having a strong moderate against a hardline conservative in the suburban district, Democrats have another big advantage: McCready has well over $1 million in his campaign account, while Harris is basically broke after the primary.
Harris’s win came in rematch — Pittenger barely beat him two years ago.
But while Pittenger went down, independent-minded Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), a frequent thorn in the side of GOP leaders, held on to win a primary of his own. He’s said he’ll retire after his next term in office.
Republicans avoided a serious disaster in West Virginia Tuesday, as West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) defeated ex-con coal baron Don Blankenship (R) and Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV) for the right to face Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).
Morrisey led Jenkins by 35 percent to 29 percent with Blankenship in a distant third at 20 percent as of 10:21 p.m. EST, when the Associated Press called the race.
Blankenship’s loss is a huge relief for Senate Republicans, who feared he might have had last-minute momentum in the race. He is just finishing up his parole after a year in prison for his role in the deaths of 29 of his workers in a mine explosion, and would have likely destroyed the GOP’s chances of defeating Manchin in a state Trump won by 42 percentage points in 2016.
Blankenship’s loss came after a nasty back-and-forth between Blankenship and Senate GOP leaders. A super PAC with ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) dropped more than $1 million on Blankenship’s head, attacking his ethics in TV spots. He responded with racially charged ads attacking McConnell’s “China family” and “Cocaine Mitch.”
Morrisey thanked Trump for the tweet as well, before making it clear he’d use the president to hammer Manchin.
“Joe Manchin has become just another rubber stamp for the liberal Washington elite agenda,” he said in his victory speech. “When President Trump needed Joe Manchin’s help, on so many issues Sen. Manchin said no.”
Manchin obviously would have loved to face the toxic Blankenship. But his allies had also strongly signaled that they’d rather face Morrisey than Jenkins — they spent more than $2 million to damage the congressman, seeing Morrisey as vulnerable due to his past as a lobbyist and the fact that he lived in New Jersey for most of his life.
“This out-of-state lobbyist doesn’t know squat about the needs of West Virginia,” Mike Plante, a spokesman for the pro-Manchin group that spent heavily to defeat Jenkins, said in a statement.
Republicans believe Manchin’s opposition to Trump and his daughter’s work for a company that jacked up prescription drug prices leave him vulnerable in the deep red state.