A University of Massachusetts-Lowell tracking poll of New Hampshire Republicans, the first to include some data collected after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) upset most pollsters’ predictions to win the Iowa caucuses, shows billionaire Donald Trump retaining a comfortable lead while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) edges closer to Cruz in second.
Wednesday’s tracking poll, compiled from data taken the days before, of and after the Iowa results, showed Trump at 38 percent and Cruz at 14 percent. The same tracking poll showed Trump at 38 percent of support yesterday and on Monday, while Cruz’ numbers remained broadly stable as well, reported at 12 percent on Monday and 14 percent yesterday. Trump’s substantial lead in the state is consistent with virtually all polling carried out in the fall and winter, but Cruz — second-place contender in most recent nationwide polls — has previously jostled with Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) for second place in New Hampshire.
Rubio, by contrast, has registered incremental but consistent gains over the week, with 8 percent on Monday, 10 percent yesterday and 12 percent today. This corresponds to his unexpectedly strong third-place finish in Iowa, which put him within two points of Trump and less than five points behind Cruz.
The UMass-Lowell tracking poll, sponsored by 7News, was conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2. Pollsters surveyed 502 likely Republican voters by live telephone interview, with a margin of error of 4.8 percent.
