An Ongoing Case Study In Missed Opportunities

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So, hey, it turns out House Democrats had no problem at all voting to let tax cuts for wealthy Americans expire. In fact, their legislation passed yesterday by a surprisingly large margin, with the support of noted socialist Ron Paul, and two other Republicans. And hey! It looks like the Senate will follow suit tomorrow, though they’ll be filibustered.

But all of this noise is really just distraction. What we’re really witnessing is an ongoing case study in missed opportunities. Obviously, the big whiff was not holding a quick vote on middle-class only tax cuts at the first sign of GOP weakness back in September. But even after Dems decided to postpone the vote until after the election, they still had at least one way to get what they say they want.

At this point, if they really want that high-income tax cuts to expire, they’ll have to be willing to let all the tax cuts expire at the end of the year. It’s a risky proposition. It would have to be accompanied by a coordinated, vocal messaging campaign. But if it worked, the Republicans would have to return to the negotiating table next year under much less friendly circumstances. That’s their lever. Tthey’re just not gonna pull it.

Instead, whatever political advantage they hope to gain from holding these votes is going to have to last them about 700 days. Because they can’t go back in time and do it before the November election, and they’re not willing to take a big risk to really put the distinctions at the forefront of people’s minds. Instead, you’re going to see a few more positioning votes, and then, ultimately, they’ll cut a deal.

In the meantime Congressional Dems are furious at the White House for having provided no leadership since the election, only to highjack the issue and (probably) give Republicans just about everything they want. And the White House understandably finds this all highly hypocritical, because these same Congressional Democrats punted back in October when President Obama was pressing them to vote for his tax plan.

But all the finger pointing is really just a diversion from the bigger point that the Democrats aren’t really out of options. They’re just scared of their own leverage again.

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