A new Rasmussen poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race finds that independent Chris Daggett could be continuing to surge -- but that if his support falls back down, as third-party candidates often do, Republican Chris Christie could hold on to a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.
Respondents were asked for initial support of candidates, and it came out as a tie between the top two: Christie 38%, Corzine 38%, Daggett 16%.
However, Daggett supporters were given a follow-up question about whether they might change their minds, and who they might vote for if they do -- similar to the process that Rasmussen normally uses to push people from the undecided column into leaning towards a candidate. The poll then found that 57% of Daggett supporters could change their minds, and this could result in a new number: Christie 45%, Corzine 41%, Daggett 9%.
"The race is a tossup, and the key question will be if Daggett loses support, how much support will he lose, and where will it go," Scott Rasmussen told TPM, also adding: "There is no perfect way to measure this. But this is where the play is."