New polling numbers of Delaware from Public Policy Polling (D), conducted over this past weekend before Tuesday's primary, show that Democrats are favored to pick up the House seat of Republican Mike Castle, the establishment moderate who lost the Senate primary to Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell. And as a bonus, Democratic former Lt. Gov. John Carney could end up rolling over another Tea Partier who beat the GOP establishment, real estate developer Glen Urquhart.
The numbers: Carney 48%, Urquhart 37%. The survey of likely voters has a Â±3.2% margin of error. In the previous PPP numbers from early August, Carney led Urquhart by 48%-30%.
However, this is not a case of the GOP primary voters potentially throwing away a race as they did on the Senate side. Urquhart very narrowly defeated the state party's official choice, philanthropist Michelle Rollins, by a margin of just 552 votes out of about 56,000. But in this poll, Rollins too is trailing Carney by a margin of 47%-37%. In the previous poll, Carney led Rollins by 48%-32%.
"Delaware has really worked out well for Democrats," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "Christine O'Donnell's primary win has ensured the party will keep its Senate seat and with Mike Castle leaving the House that's the number one opportunity for a pick up on that end."