The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the PennsylvaniaÂ Senate race has Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak, who defeated incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter in the Dem primary last week, jumping to a narrow lead over Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey.
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The numbers: Sestak 43%, Toomey 40%. The survey of likely voters has a Â±4% margin of error. The previous R2K poll from two weeks ago, shortly before the primary, gave Toomey a lead over Sestak of 45%-40%. The only other post-primary poll, released last week by Rasmussen, had Sestak taking a lead of 46%-42%. The TPM Poll Average has Toomey ahead by the narrowest of margins at 39.7%-39.2%.
Looking at the polling graph, it is interesting to note that Toomey's support has stayed within a particular range, while Sestak's support has been picking up since March. In some ways, this is similar to the way that Specter's support stayed about the same in the Democratic primary, and how Sestak gained on him and ultimately overtook him by picking up undecided voters.