TPM News

The man behind a new Spanish-language ad, encouraging Nevada Latinos not to vote is a veteran of Republican politics and now an advocate for what most would consider conservative, business-friendly immigration policy.

In an interview with TPM, Robert de Posada, founder of Latinos for Reform, said he's become equally disgruntled with both parties. His current goal, though, is to punish Democrats for failing to deliver on a promise to pass comprehensive immigration reform. And his CV includes a long list of affiliations with conservative immigration reform groups.

In 1994, according to de Posada, he helped create the Hispanic Business Roundtable, which later became the Latino Coalition, where he was president until 2007. He served as co-director with Dick Armey on Americans for Border and Economic Security, on George W. Bush's Social Security Commission, and as director of Hispanic affairs at the Republican National Committee until becoming disgruntled with the GOP and settling into conservative advocacy.

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A new poll from Rasmussen -- not usually the first pollster Democrats look to for good news -- shows that Democrat Jack Conway has Republican Rand Paul on the run in the Kentucky Senate race. The new poll shows Paul leading by just five, a significant drop from the last Rasmussen poll which showed Paul up by 11.

In the new numbers, Paul is ahead 47-42. The poll of likely voters was taken yesterday using Rasmussen's robo-poll system, meaning the survey came as controversy over Conway's latest tactics reached a fever pitch. The last Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 29, before Conway's attacks on Paul's college career and in the midst of the war over Paul's position on Medicare. That poll showed Paul ahead 49-38.

If the Rasmussen poll is any judge, Conway's plan of attack appears to be working. As the pollster notes in its analysis, the new poll is Conway's "best showing since June."

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The new Fox News poll of California shows the Democrats extending their narrow leads in the state's top races for governor and Senate. Or perhaps more accurately, the Republicans are falling further behind -- the voters don't actually like any of the candidates.

In the gubernatorial race, to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger: Democrat Jerry Brown 48%, Republican Meg Whitman 43%. In the previous Fox poll from a month ago, Brown and Whitman were tied at 45%-45%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 47.6%-43.7%

In the Senate race: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer 48%, Republican Carly Fiorina 44%. In the previous poll, Boxer led by just 47%-46%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 48.0%-43.7%.

As Fox's analysis points out: "California voters don't seem too happy with any of their candidate choices this year. Boxer, Fiorina, Brown and Whitman all scored above 50 percent on being viewed unfavorably by voters."

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

Another video has emerged from Sunday's Joe Miller town hall, during which the Alaska Republican Senate nominee's private security team detained Alaska Dispatch editor Tony Hopfinger. In this video, members of the DropZone security team attempt to detain other reporters trying to interview Hopgfinger, who sits on the floor in handcuffs.

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You've read about last night's seven-candidate New York gubernatorial debate, in which Jimmy McMillan, leader of the Rent Is 2 Damn High Party, stole the show with his one-liners, remarkable facial hair and black gloves.

Just how many party members does he lead? Three, according to Board of Elections records: himself, in Brooklyn; and one member each in upstate Oneida and Tioga counties.

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The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows Republican businessman John Raese just holding on to a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the contest to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.8% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from two weeks ago, Raese had a wider lead of 48%-43%.

Raese had previously enjoyed a strong lead over Manchin, even though the Dem is a very popular governor, because of President Obama's overwhelming unpopularity in the state. However, Raese's momentum was recently blunted as a result of an ad from his own party, via the National Republican Senatorial Committee, that was taped in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin an edge of 46.5%-45.7%.

A former Justice Department lawyer, Robert Kengle, has written the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights to object to the testimony of the former head of the Voting Section, Christopher Coates. Coates accused Kengle of being leery of the Bush-era Noxubee, Miss. voter intimidation case, which was the first time that the federal government used the 1965 Voting Rights Act to allege racial discrimination against whites.

As Adam Serwer reports, Kengle wrote the conservative-controlled U.S. Commission on Civil Rights with his complaint. The Commission is examining the enforcement of the Voting Rights Act as part of their inquiry into DOJ's handling of the voter intimidation case against members of the New Black Panther Party.

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Pennsylvania voters can't afford cap and trade legislation, says Sarah Palin. And that's why they need to send Republican John Raese to the Senate.

Except that John Raese is the Republican nominee in West Virginia.

Welcome to the latest Sarah Palin Twitter #fail.

This morning, the former half-term Alaska Governor turned kingmaker and kingbreaker in GOP politics told her hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers: "Pennsylvania:makes sense 2 send GOP 2 DC 2 avoid PA economic disaster that will occur under Obama/Pelosi Cap & Tax scheme; workers need Raese."

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