TPM News

It's oh-so-close in the Ohio gubernatorial race, but yet another public poll out today shows Republican John Kasich with a slim advantage over incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D).

A Fox News robopoll -- conducted using methodology from Rasmussen Saturday -- shows Kasich head 48-44. That number confirms the Strickland momentum shown in other public polling, suggesting it could be a long night in Ohio tomorrow.

The last Fox News poll of the race, conducted on Oct. 23, showed Kasich ahead 47-43. Another Fox poll from Oct. 16 showed Kasich ahead 49-43.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 48.8-45.7.

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A new round of the "Ohio Poll" from the University Of Cincinnati confirms incumbent Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) momentum against Republican John Kasich, but the pollster reports Strickland's surge is likely not enough to keep the Democrat in office for a second term.

The new survey, conducted among likely voters over the weekend, shows Kasich ahead 52-47. The last poll from the school, conducted in early October, showed Kasich ahead 51-43.

Despite Strickland's movement to close in on the Republican, the pollster "projects victories for Republican candidates" in both the Buckeye State's gubernatorial and Senate races.

The governor's race has become one of the most closely-watched of the final days of the 2010 campaign, with Democrats hoping Strickland can hold off Kasich despite the state's lagging economy and general malaise. A win in Ohio would be some good news for Democrats on a night many expect to be full of bad news for the party.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 48.9-45.9.

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The new survey of California from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer holding on to narrow leads in their respective races against Republican businesswomen Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 51%, Whitman 46%. In the previous PPP poll from a week ago, Brown had a wider lead of 53%-42%. The TPM Poll Average of the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 49.6%-42.0%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 50%, Fiorina 46%. The previous PPP numbers from a week ago gave Boxer a lead of 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average of the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 48.1%-44.1%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error.

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A Quinnipiac poll released today finds the race for Florida Governor locked up. The survey finds Democrat Alex Sink with a 44-43 lead over Republican Rick Scott.

That's an improvement for Scott over Quinnipiac's last poll, which had Sink up 45-41. But all polls are incredibly tight. Scott appears to have faltered slightly in the last month, and has lost what was already a narrow lead.

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Tom DeLay, former House majority leader and, more recently, contestant on "Dancing With the Stars," finally heads to trial today, five years after he was charged with money laundering.

DeLay, a Republican, faces charges that he illegally funneled $190,000 from corporations to Texas state races in 2002. That year, Republicans took the majority in the Texas state house, leading to a Republican-led redistricting that put more Texan Republicans in the U.S. House.

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The Nevada secretary of state has declared that complaints made by Nevada Republicans alleging voter fraud are without merit.

Last Friday, Secretary of State Ross Miller, a Democrat, released a 20-page report responding to several complaints filed by a lawyer for the Nevada GOP Victory Committee. The complaints alleged that one- or two-ballot discrepancies in the number of early voters recorded and the number of ballots cast should be investigated for signs of voter fraud.

Miller checked out several of the complaints and ruled that they were simple clerical errors.

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