A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D), commissioned by Daily Kos, finds that Democrats could potentially win the May 24 special election for NY-26, the House seat vacated by GOP Rep. Chris Lee. He resigned after sexually suggestive pictures and e-mails of his were made public. The reason the Dems could win: A split in the conservative vote between the official Republican nominee and a wealthy frequent candidate running on the "Tea Party" line.
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The numbers: Democratic Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul 35%, Republican state Rep. Jane Corwin 31%, Tea Party businessman Jack Davis 24%, and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy (the same person who conducted the infamous 20-minute prank call with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, with Murphy posing as Republican financier David Koch) at 2%.
The TPM Poll Average gives Corwin 33.5%, Hochul 33%, Davis 23.5%, and Murphy 1.5%.