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Republican House minority leader John Boehner has been using a dumb--trust me, really dumb--line involving Johnny Cash in some recent speeches. Cash's daughter Roseanne doesn't think much of that. And she let Boehner know, by calling him "asshat."

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So as we stare down the barrel of some big Democratic losses in the House today, let's look at another end of the equation. It's often noted that Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to win a majority, but it is also theoretically possible that they could pick up 39 seats and still not win control. Why? Because there are in fact a very small handful of seats that they hold that the Democrats could nevertheless pickup in even this bad year.

Keep in mind, these wave cycles often have a few seats that swing the other way. Even in 1994, Democrats picked up such seats as Maine-02 and Rhode Island-01. The 2006 midterm year was interesting, with Republican picking up nothing -- not one measly House seat -- but even in 2008 they won a couple seats back, such as Kansas-02 and Texas-22, even as they lost another net 21 seats.

So let's take a quick look at the Republican-held House seats that according to the leading ratings out there -- CQ, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball -- are expected to go to the Dems.

To be honest, there aren't that many of them -- though who knows, there could be some surprises tonight. The criteria here are that the ratings guys all have these seats ranging from toss-up to leaning Dem to Dem favored. It's a short list, but each one of them would move back the goalpost for a Republican House. Then again, if the national GOP wave turns out to be as big as everyone says, it won't be too much of an issue -- though it surely means something to the Dem candidates in these individual districts.

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Change Bites Back for Democrats -- More Waves To Come? CQ reports: "Today's midterm elections promise to bring about a historic power shift on Capitol Hill for the third time in as many cycles. With such a volatile electorate throwing power in Washington back and forth, by Wednesday the question could turn to how long the latest change will last and whether 'wave' elections will become the norm as voters continue to seek instant political transformation from their leaders."

Obama's Day Ahead President Obama will receive the presidential daily briefing at 9:30 a.m. ET, and receive the economic daily briefing at 10 a.m. ET. He will then do a series of radio interviews: A live interview at 11:35 a.m. ET with KPWR Los Angeles; A taped interview at 11:50 a.m. ET with WGCI Chicago; A taped interview at 12:05 p.m. ET with WSOL Jacksonville; And a live interview at 12:20 p.m. ET with KVEG Las Vegas. He will meet at 4:30 p.m. ET with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.

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Longtime fans of Countdown may have been disappointed to learn tonight that one of the franchise segments, "Worst Persons," is no longer - at least for the time being. Why? Well as host Keith Olbermann explains in the segment below, its original reason for being (Tucker Carlson?) no longer seems relevant. Oh, and it's probably more than just a coincidence that Jon Stewart held up Olbermann as an example of the divisive nature of cable news (among many others) during the Rally to Restore Sanity.

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So this is it -- the day the tea partiers take back America. Or at least part of it. Or at least convince Republicans to stop taking it away as much as they did the last time they were in charge. Or at least convince Republicans to repeatedly respond to the movement's inflamed passions with tea party-friendly rhetoric.

Whatever happens, tonight's tally sheets will be all about the tea party -- those folks on TV will be counting candidates and races to see how big the tea party's influence in Washington will be in the end. There are several races to watch, but the main thing to remember is that the tea party can't really lose tonight: all they can really do is win less.

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Returns for 435 House elections will start rolling in a few hours from now. Well before they do, though, most Dems had long conceded that more than a handful of races are already lost. With these seats for all intents and purposes off the table before the polls opened, the number of truly contested seats the GOP needs to win control of the House is effectively much smaller than the magic 39.

Assuming the House does change hands, then, the big open question is how big the swing will be. There are scores of seats in play, but the battle lines have already moved past over a dozen House members who, in most cases, have already been written off by their own party.

If you're keeping score tonight, don't hold your breath for any of these Democrats.

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Minnesota Majority, one of the groups behind the anti-voter fraud initiative in the state called "Election Integrity Watch," told supporters in an e-mail last night to go ahead and wear their "Please I.D. Me" buttons and Tea Party apparel to the polls today despite a federal judge's ruling yesterday that such items would interfere with the elections process.

The e-mail said that anti-voter fraud advocates will "have a decision to make" if an election judge questions the items they are wearing. "You can simply remove or cover the challenged item and you'll be allowed to vote, or you can refuse and demand your right to vote and the election judge will allow you to vote, while also recording your name and you could be charged with a petty misdemeanor," says the e-mail.

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Allies of the Democratic Party "have shown a willingness to commit fraud across the country, in both this election cycle and recent years," the campaign of Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott said Monday in announcing his campaign's "Honest Voter Hotline." Voters are encouraged to "report any instances of irregularities at the polls, including voter fraud, intimidation, violence and electioneering."

Rob Jakubik, a Scott spokesman, said in the statement that, given the tightness of the polls, "all examples of fraud must be addressed to preserve the integrity of the election." But a spokesman for the campaign told TPMMuckraker they haven't had any indications of voter fraud so far.

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When voters head to the polls Tuesday, many won't just be voting for senators, congressman, governors and all sorts of local officials. They'll also have the opportunity to change their state laws in a more direct, populist way: by ballot measure. Over half the states have propositions on the ballot and TPM has collected some of the most important, fascinating, and controversial questions voters will get the chance to answer for themselves in the voting booth.

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